资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 486-497.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.03.03

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突发事件对国家金属资源安全的冲击影响

朱学红1,2(), 张宏伟1,2(), 黄健柏1,2, 邵留国1,2, 郭尧琦2,3   

  1. 1. 中南大学商学院,长沙410083
    2. 中南大学金属资源战略研究院,长沙410083
    3.中南大学数学与统计学院,长沙410083
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-14 修回日期:2017-12-26 出版日期:2018-03-10 发布日期:2018-03-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介: 朱学红,女,湖南长沙人,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为资源经济。E-mail:zhxh@csu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(71633006);国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD169);中南大学博士生自主探索创新项目(2016zzts009)

The impact of emergencies on national metal resource security

Xuehong ZHU1,2(), Hongwei ZHANG1,2(), Jianbai HUANG1,2, Liuguo SHAO1,2, Yaoqi GUO2,3   

  1. 1. Business School, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
    2. Metal Resource Strategic Research Institute, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
    3. Mathematics and Statistics School, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
  • Received:2017-08-14 Revised:2017-12-26 Online:2018-03-10 Published:2018-03-10

摘要:

复杂和难以预测的突发事件对国家金属资源安全造成重大影响。本文从非常规安全视角,在“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)模型解析国家金属资源安全机理的基础上,以铜为例构建系统动力学模型,对不同类型突发事件对金属资源安全冲击的影响程度和传导路径进行研究。研究发现,自然灾害、地缘政治、资源民族主义、重大矿难与环境污染对金属资源价格造成直接冲击,当该类突发事件导致在事件发生期内进口量分别减少20%、50%和100%时,铜价相比基准情景立即上涨,至最大涨幅3.55%、10.00%、27.30%后逐渐回落至基准水平,影响持续时间较长。而金融市场投机行为则通过投机需求间接影响价格,影响相对较小,且事件过后铜价迅速趋于基准水平。最后,本文提出了应对金属资源领域突发事件的战略调整策略,以期为维护国家金属资源安全提供科学依据。

关键词: 突发事件, PSR模型, 系统动力学, 影响机理, 应对策略

Abstract:

Complex and unpredictable emergencies impose a significant impact on national metal resource security. Here, we analyzed the influence mechanism of emergencies on national metal resource security based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) model from an unconventional security perspective. The system dynamics model taking copper as an example was carried out to explore the influence degree and conduction path of different types of emergencies on metal resource security. We found that natural disasters, geopolitics, resource nationalism, major mining accidents and environmental pollution have a direct impact on the price of metal resources. When a 20%, 50% and 100% reduction during the period of event occurred in imports occurred due to such emergencies, the copper price rose immediately, compared to the benchmark situation, to the strongest gain of 3. 55%, 10. 00%, and 27. 30% respectively. Prices gradually fell back to baseline and the effects lasted a long time. However, the speculative behavior of financial markets indirectly affected the price through speculative demand. When the speculations result in a 20% and 50% reduction in the amount of positions during the event, copper prices fall immediately to their greatest level of 1. 201% and 3. 150% with rapid rebound to benchmark. On the contrary, if speculation positions increase by 20% and 50%, copper prices immediately rise to the maximum increase of 1. 132% and 2. 716%. Copper prices decline to baseline level rapidly. We conclude by proposing strategic adjustments to deal with emergencies in metal resources to provide a scientific basis for safeguarding national metal resource security.

Key words: emergency, PSR model, system dynamics, influence mechanism, coping strategies