资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 477-485.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.03.02

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基于熵权TOPSIS法的中国区域能源安全评价及差异分析

孙涵1,2,3(), 聂飞飞1(), 胡雪原1   

  1. 1. 中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,武汉 430074
    2. 国土资源部国土资源战略研究重点实验室,武汉 430074
    3. 中国地质大学(武汉)资源环境研究中心,武汉 430074
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-30 修回日期:2018-02-06 出版日期:2018-03-10 发布日期:2018-03-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:孙涵,男,湖北黄冈人,博士,副教授,研究方向为能源和环境管理和项目管理。E-mail:sunhan2004@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY063);教育部人文社科基金项目(15YJC790091);中国地质大学(武汉)青年学者“摇篮计划”(CUGW17401)

Evaluation and difference analysis of regional energy security in China based on entropy-weight TOPSIS modeling

Han SUN1,2,3(), Feifei NIE1(), Xueyuan HU1   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
    2. Key Laboratory for the Land and Resources Strategic Studies, Ministry of Land and Resources, Wuhan 430074, China
    3. Research Center of Resource and Environmental Economics, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
  • Received:2017-08-30 Revised:2018-02-06 Online:2018-03-10 Published:2018-03-10

摘要:

近年来,中国多个地区相继出现了能源“四荒”问题,说明区域能源安全仍然是中国发展中一个重要的问题。本文从能源供应、使用、经济与环境安全四方面,构建了相应的指标体系,利用熵值法确定指标权重,克服了传统赋权法的主观性,与TOPSIS法相结合,对中国区域能源安全进行评价。结果表明:中国区域能源安全性普遍处于中低水平。能源安全值高于全国平均水平的只有山西、新疆、内蒙古等9个省份,仅占研究省份的30%,其余21个省份普遍低于全国能源安全平均值。中国能源安全性大致呈现“由西北向东南”逐渐降低的特点。西北地区能源储量丰富,能源消耗量相对较低,能源安全值偏高;东部及中部地区能源储量较为匮乏,并且能源消耗量巨大,导致能源安全值偏低。最后,提出了相应的政策建议。

关键词: 区域能源安全, 熵权TOPSIS法, 安全评价, 差异分析

Abstract:

In many regions in China, energy shortages (e.g. coal, oil, gas and electricity) are common. There are signs that regional energy security remains an important issue in the development of China and cannot be ignored. Here, we construct a corresponding index system of regional energy security from four aspects: regional energy supply, use, economic and environmental safety in China. The weight of the index is determined by the entropy method, overcoming the subjectivity of the traditional weighting method, and the TOPSIS evaluation method is used to quantitatively evaluate energy security of provinces. The results show that China’s regional energy security is generally low. The energy security value is higher than the national average for only Shanxi, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and six other provinces, accounting for 30% of provinces. The remaining 21 provinces have lower than average energy security. Energy security in China shows a gradual decrease from the northwest to southeast. In northwest provinces, energy reserves are abundant and energy consumption is relatively low, resulting in high energy security. Energy savings in the eastern and central provinces are scarce and energy consumption is huge, leading to low energy security. Several policy recommendations are discussed, including optimizing energy structure and increasing diversification of energy to improve supply stability, increasing research investment and improving energy efficiency, reducing and diversifying energy consumption, paying attention to environmental protection investment and lessening environmental pollution.

Key words: regional energy security, methods of entropy-weight and TOPSIS, safety evaluation, difference analysis