生态移民政策对农户收入影响机理研究——基于形成型指标的结构方程模型分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.02.19

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

生态移民政策评估是多学科领域的热点问题,而机理研究是其关键环节。本研究通过构建“生态移民政策→生计资本→收入”分析框架,以生计资本为中介变量,选择形成型指标建立结构方程模型分析生态移民政策对收入的影响机理,采用偏最小二乘回归方法估算路径系数,测算生态移民政策对收入的直接效应、间接效应和总效应,验证生态移民政策影响收入作用机理的有效性。陕南和宁夏的生态移民分别是城镇化社区安置和新农村安置的典型,通过实证分析两地生态移民政策作用机理,针对关键生计资本提出优化措施,以增加农户生计资本并长效促进收入提高。研究表明：两种类型的生态移民政策通过人力资本、社会资本、金融资本和物质资本对农户收入均有正向作用,但是影响大小略有区别。陕南地区的生态移民政策通过社会资本改善农户收入的作用最强,人力资本次之,金融资本和物质资本相对较小;宁夏地区的生态移民政策通过金融资本改善农户收入的作用最强,人力资本次之,社会资本和物质资本相对较小,自然资本具有微弱的负向影响。总体而言,生态移民政策的实施能有效促进农户生计资本存量的积累,进而产生稳定可持续的收入流量。

关键词: 生态移民政策, 生计资本, 收入, 影响机理, 形成型指标, 结构方程模型

Abstract:

Policy assessment of ecological migration is a heated issue in a multidisciplinary context, and the impact mechanism lies on the key position. By constructing the analytical framework of Ecological migration policy → livelihood capital → income and using Structural Equation Modeling with Formative Indicators, a structural equation model with livelihood capitals as mediator variables was adopted to explore the impact mechanism of ecological migration policy on household income. Through the Partial Least Squares regression method, path coefficients were calculated to estimate the direct, indirect and total effects between the ecological migration policy and income, and then verify the effectiveness of the mechanism. As the representatives of urban community and new village resettlement, the migration households in southern Shaanxi and Ningxia were selected as sampling to conduct an empirical analysis of the mechanism of ecological migration, and to put forward optimization measures to improve farmer livelihood capital and increase household income. We found that ecological migration policy in southern Shaanxi and Ningxia has a positive effect on the improvement of farmer income through human capital, social capital, financial capital and physical capital, with a slight difference in each path. In southern Shaanxi, the most important way to improve household income is using social capital, the second is human capital; financial capital and physical capital are relatively small. In Ningxia, the sequence of importance is financial capital, human capital, social capital physical capital, while natural capital plays a negative role. In general, ecological migration policy can effectively accumulate the stock of farmer livelihood capital and then produce a stable and sustainable income flow.

Key words: ecological migration policy, livelihood capital, income, impact mechanism, formative indicator, Structural Equation Model

黄志刚, 陈晓楠, 李健瑜. 生态移民政策对农户收入影响机理研究——基于形成型指标的结构方程模型分析[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(2): 439-451.

Zhigang HUANG, Xiaonan CHEN, Jianyu LI. Research on the impact mechanism of ecological migration policy on rural household income based on the Structural Equation Model with formative indicators[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(2): 439-451.

图/表 7

图1

表1

表2

生态移民政策、农户生计资本及收入指标描述"

变量	指标	指标描述
自然资本（NC）	户有耕地面积（NC₁）	农户家庭所拥有的耕地数量
	退耕还林还草面积（NC₂）	农户实际参与退耕还林还草工程的耕地或林地面积
金融资本（FC）	家庭存款（FC₁）	1=小于1万;2=1万~3万;3=3万~5万;4=5万~10万;5=10万以上
	借贷难度（FC₂）	1=非常难;2=比较难;3=一般;4=比较容易;5=非常容易
物质资本（PC）	家庭耐用消费品得分（PC₁）	16项家庭耐用消费品（电视、冰箱、洗衣机、三轮车等）中所拥有的数量
	家庭设施配套得分（PC₂）	六项（水、电、厨房、厕所、供暖设备和网络）生活设施配套总得分;1=不配套;2=不完全配套;3=完全配套
人力资本（HC）	家庭成员受教育水平总得分（HC₁）	0=文盲;0.25=小学;0.5=初中;0.75=高中或中专;1=大学及以上
	家庭总体劳动能力（HC₂）	0=年纪太小而不能劳动的儿童以及残疾人或长期患病者;0.3=可以做一些简单家务的儿童;0.5=只能从事部分劳动的成年人;0.6=能够成为成人的助手的孩子;1=能够从事全部劳动的成年人
	家庭中是否具有成年男性劳动力（HC₃）	18~65周岁能从事正常生产劳动的健康成年男性劳动力：0=没有;1=有
社会资本（SC）	亲朋好友的职业得分（以职业得分最高为标准）（SC₁）	1=电工,农技推广员,厨师,出租车司机,邮递员;2=小学幼儿园教师,护士,包工头,保险业务员,村干部;3=医生,政府普通员工,警察,乡长,私企老板;4=中级领导干部（科长到局长,企业总经理和厂长,中学教师,记者,律师;5=高级领导干部（处级以上）
	逢年过节亲朋好友联系的人数（SC₂）	1=0~10人;2=10~20人;3=20~30人;4=30人以上
	邻里交往（SC₃）	村内经常往来的户数
生态移民政策（POL）	基础设施投资（POL₁）	农户所在区有并且对农户有帮助的基础设施数目
	就业培训投入（POL₂）	政府开展培训并且农户是否参加：1=有;0=没有
	迁移补偿（POL₃）	政府对农户所发放的货币补偿和非货币补偿
移民户收入（IN）		工资性收入、经营性收入、财产性收入、转移性收入

表2

表3

表4

表5

图2

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区域	区县	样本数	样本比例/%
陕南	汉滨区	175	28.3
	镇安县	129	20.9
	商南县	52	8.4
	石泉县	82	13.3
宁夏	红寺堡区	67	10.8
	海原县	61	9.9
	西吉县	52	8.4

路径	权重
路径	陕南	宁夏	全样本
NC₁→NC	0.853**	0.151	0.998**
NC₂→NC	0.505	0.962	0.016
FC₁→FC	0.822***	0.955***	0.850***
FC₂→FC	0.420***	0.103	0.354***
PC₁→PC	0.887***	0.643***	0.700***
PC₂→PC	0.370***	0.670***	0.638***
HC₁→HC	0.216***	0.107	0.260***
HC₂→HC	0.855***	0.893***	0.794***
HC₃→HC	0.009	0.097	0.079
SC₁→SC	0.779***	0.789***	0.760***
SC₂→SC	0.376***	0.397***	0.411***
SC₃→SC	0.415***	0.029	0.296***
IN→IN	1.000***	1.000***	1.000***
POL₁→POL	0.462***	0.342***	0.390***
POL₂→POL	0.620***	0.664***	0.600***
POL₃→POL	0.443***	0.416***	0.500***

变量	R²（R²_adj）
变量	陕南	宁夏	全样本
NC	0.008（0.006）	0.005（-0.001）	0.011（0.009）
FC	0.136（0.134）	0.312（0.308）	0.171（0.169）
PC	0.153（0.151）	0.218（0.214）	0.224（0.223）
HC	0.119（0.117）	0.323（0.320）	0.190（0.189）
SC	0.166（0.164）	0.266（0.261）	0.209（0.208）
IN	0.654（0.649）	0.837（0.831）	0.689（0.686）

效应	路径	陕南			宁夏			全样本
效应	路径	系数		f²		系数	f²	系数	f²
直接效应	POL→NC	-0.089*	0.008		0.068	0.005		-0.104**	0.011
	POL→FC	0.369***	0.158***		0.559***	0.454***		0.413***	0.206***
	POL→PC	0.391***	0.181***		0.467***	0.279***		0.473***	0.289***
	POL→HC	0.345***	0.135***		0.569***	0.478***		0.436***	0.235***
	POL→SC	0.408***	0.199***		0.515***	0.362***		0.458***	0.265***
	NC→IN	-0.015	0.001		-0.025	0.004		-0.046**	0.007
	FC→IN	0.206***	0.096**		0.417***	0.452***		0.197***	0.089***
	PC→IN	0.184***	0.065**		0.082**	0.024		0.201***	0.079***
	HC→IN	0.296***	0.179***		0.341***	0.324***		0.291***	0.169***
	SC→IN	0.269***	0.143***		0.100**	0.031		0.223***	0.099***
	POL→IN	0.173***	0.063**		0.147***	0.078		0.187***	0.073***
间接效应	POL→NC→IN	0.001	-		-0.002	-		0.005	-
	POL→FC→IN	0.076	-		0.233	-		0.081	-
	POL→PC→IN	0.072	-		0.038	-		0.095	-
	POL→HC→IN	0.102	-		0.194	-		0.127	-
	POL→SC→IN	0.110	-		0.050	-		0.102	-
总效应	POL→IN	0.534	-		0.660	-		0.597	-