资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 273-283.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.02.05
收稿日期:
2017-11-06
修回日期:
2018-01-09
出版日期:
2018-02-20
发布日期:
2018-02-11
作者简介:
作者简介: 戈大专,男,江苏新沂人,博士生,从事土地利用转型与乡村转型发展研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Dazhuan GE1,2,3(), Hualou LONG1,3,4(
), Ren YANG5
Received:
2017-11-06
Revised:
2018-01-09
Online:
2018-02-20
Published:
2018-02-11
摘要:
土地利用转型与社会经济转型相互作用,共同推动中国城乡转型发展。耕地资源是保障粮食安全的核心要素,基于中国人多地少的“人地关系”特征,深入分析中国耕地利用转型规律,对于制定合理的耕地保护政策,推动中国农业生产现代化具有重要战略意义。本文以林地转型理论为依据,构建了人均耕地面积视角下的耕地利用转型理论模型,探讨了城镇化进程中中国乡村地区人均耕地面积由不断下降到逐步上升的趋势性转折过程。基于全国10km栅格分辨率人均耕地面积的变化,研究表明:1990—2010年中国71%的耕地覆盖区人均耕地面积由逐步下降转型为稳定上升,基本验证了本文提出的耕地利用转型理论模型。此外,利用空间计量回归模型,定量识别了自然因素、区位因素和社会经济因素驱动耕地利用转型的机制,研究发现城镇化进程中社会经济因素在推动耕地利用转型中的作用不断加强,不同因素在耕地利用转型不同阶段的驱动机制差异显著。
戈大专, 龙花楼, 杨忍. 中国耕地利用转型格局及驱动因素研究——基于人均耕地面积视角[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(2): 273-283.
Dazhuan GE, Hualou LONG, Ren YANG. The pattern and mechanism of farmland transition in China from the perspective of per capita farmland area[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(2): 273-283.
表2
1990—2010年中国分区人口比重、耕地面积比重和人均耕地面积统计"
人口比重/% | 耕地比重/% | 人均耕地面积/hm² | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1990年 | 2000年 | 2010年 | 1990年 | 2000年 | 2010年 | 1990年 | 2000年 | 2010年 | |||
胡焕庸线东南部 | 94.21 | 93.97 | 93.79 | 87.62 | 87.18 | 86.63 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.36 | ||
胡焕庸线西北部 | 5.79 | 6.03 | 6.21 | 12.38 | 12.82 | 13.37 | 1.38 | 1.43 | 1.44 | ||
东北区 | 10.23 | 9.79 | 9.57 | 16.31 | 17.67 | 17.88 | 0.81 | 0.89 | 0.94 | ||
黄淮海区 | 25.19 | 25.04 | 24.99 | 17.29 | 16.76 | 16.61 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.13 | ||
长三角区 | 9.78 | 9.83 | 10.85 | 5.88 | 5.60 | 5.36 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
长江中下游区 | 21.00 | 20.07 | 19.35 | 14.16 | 13.83 | 13.71 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||
珠三角区 | 5.15 | 6.77 | 7.85 | 2.01 | 1.88 | 1.73 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.10 | ||
华南区 | 5.08 | 4.99 | 5.09 | 4.58 | 4.48 | 4.47 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.34 | ||
西南区 | 19.26 | 18.59 | 17.10 | 17.35 | 17.05 | 16.99 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.26 | ||
黄土高原区 | 7.82 | 7.89 | 7.74 | 8.72 | 8.61 | 8.49 | 0.42 | 0.40 | 0.41 | ||
内蒙区 | 3.80 | 3.69 | 3.68 | 8.32 | 8.63 | 8.63 | 1.14 | 1.20 | 1.34 | ||
甘新区 | 2.51 | 2.73 | 2.90 | 4.83 | 4.95 | 5.57 | 1.61 | 1.53 | 1.58 | ||
青藏区 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.54 | 0.55 | 0.56 | 1.78 | 1.79 | 1.73 |
表3
耕地利用转型驱动因素空间计量回归模型结果"
变量 | PCFC 1990-2000(SEM) | 变量 | PCFC 2000-2010(SEM) |
---|---|---|---|
常数项 | -0.57* | 常数项 | 12.07*** |
PCFA_1990 | 4.16*** | PCFA_2000 | 1.20*** |
Elevation | -0.12 | Elevation | 5.09** |
Slope | 8.48*** | Slope | 1.13 |
Dis2city | 45.41*** | Dis2city | 8.02*** |
Dis2river | 17.75*** | Dis2river | 1.12 |
Dis2railway | -23.69*** | Dis2railway | -1.48 |
PGDP_1990 | -3.86 | PGDP_2000 | -14.16*** |
AIR_1990 | -2.28 | AIR_2000 | -7.63*** |
CPGDP_1990-2000 | -0.01 | CPGDP_2000-2010 | -2.39* |
CAIR_1990-2000 | 3.64* | CAIR_2000-2010 | -5.98** |
LAMBDA | 0.93*** | LAMBDA | 0.97*** |
R² | 0.73 | R² | 0.86 |
AIC | 461 342 | AIC | 441 159 |
SC | 461 440 | SC | 441 258 |
Log likelihood | -230 659.78 | Log likelihood | -220 568.71 |
Lagrange Multiplier (lag) | 97 503.20*** | Lagrange Multiplier (lag) | 137 354.00 *** |
Robust LM (lag) | 18.82*** | Robust LM (lag) | 894.14*** |
Lagrange Multiplier (error) | 97 868.80*** | Lagrange Multiplier (error) | 137 586.03*** |
Robust LM (error) | 384.42*** | Robust LM (error) | 1 125.81*** |
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