中国耕地利用转型格局及驱动因素研究——基于人均耕地面积视角

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.02.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地利用转型与社会经济转型相互作用,共同推动中国城乡转型发展。耕地资源是保障粮食安全的核心要素,基于中国人多地少的“人地关系”特征,深入分析中国耕地利用转型规律,对于制定合理的耕地保护政策,推动中国农业生产现代化具有重要战略意义。本文以林地转型理论为依据,构建了人均耕地面积视角下的耕地利用转型理论模型,探讨了城镇化进程中中国乡村地区人均耕地面积由不断下降到逐步上升的趋势性转折过程。基于全国10km栅格分辨率人均耕地面积的变化,研究表明：1990—2010年中国71%的耕地覆盖区人均耕地面积由逐步下降转型为稳定上升,基本验证了本文提出的耕地利用转型理论模型。此外,利用空间计量回归模型,定量识别了自然因素、区位因素和社会经济因素驱动耕地利用转型的机制,研究发现城镇化进程中社会经济因素在推动耕地利用转型中的作用不断加强,不同因素在耕地利用转型不同阶段的驱动机制差异显著。

关键词: 耕地利用转型, 人均耕地面积, 城乡转型发展, 城镇化, 空间计量回归模型

Abstract:

Land use transitions and socioeconomic transitions jointly drive urban-rural transformation development in China. Given the man-land relationship defined by large populations with relatively little farmland in China, farmland resources are a core element contributing to food security. Therefore, it is of great strategic significance to develop a reasonable policy of farmland protection and promote the modernization of agricultural production via analysis of the law of farmland transition in China. Based on the theory of forest transition, we constructed a theoretical model for farmland transition from the perspective of per capita farmland area (PCFA) change and discussed the changing process of PCFA from continuous decline to gradual increase in the process of urbanization. Based on transitions measured at a 10 km gridded resolution of PCFA across the country, this study found that China’s PCFA transitioned from a gradual decline to a steady rise during 1990—2010. It contains 71% of the farmland coverage area, which basically validates the theoretical model of farmland transition. In addition, we used the spatial econometric regression model to quantitatively identify the driving mechanisms of natural factors, location factors and socioeconomic factors for farmland transition. We found that the role of socioeconomic factors in promoting the farmland transition has been strengthened during the process of urbanization, and there were obvious differences in the driving mechanism for farmland transition in different stages. Theoretical and practical research on farmland transition is the frontier exploration of land use transition. In addition, further study of farmland transition in rural areas provides theoretical guidance for the transformation of agricultural production.

Key words: farmland transition, per capita farmland area, urban-rural transformation development, urbanization, spatial econometric regression model

戈大专, 龙花楼, 杨忍. 中国耕地利用转型格局及驱动因素研究——基于人均耕地面积视角[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(2): 273-283.

Dazhuan GE, Hualou LONG, Ren YANG. The pattern and mechanism of farmland transition in China from the perspective of per capita farmland area[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(2): 273-283.

图/表 6

图1

表1

表2

图2

图3

表3

参考文献 50

[1]	Long H, Qu Y.Land use transitions and land management: a mutual feedback perspective[J]. Land Use Policy, 2017, doi:10.1016/j. landusepol. 2017. 03. 021.
[2]	龙花楼. 论土地利用转型与土地资源管理[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(9): 1607-1618.
	[Long H L.Land use transition and land management[J]. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(9): 1607-1618. ]
[3]	Rudel T K, Coomes O T, Moran E F, et al.Forest transitions: towards a global understanding of land use change[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2005, 15(1): 23-31.
[4]	宋小青. 论土地利用转型的研究框架[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(3): 471-487.
	[Song X Q.Discussion on land use transition research framework[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(3): 471-487. ]
[5]	Lambin E F, Meyfroidt P.Land use transitions: Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change[J]. Land Use Policy, 2010, 27(2): 108-118.
[6]	Grainger A.Difficulties in tracking the long-term global trend in tropical forest area[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 2008, 105(2): 818-823.
[7]	Mather A S.Forest transition theory and the reforesting of Scotland[J]. The Scottish Geographical Magazine, 2004, 120(1-2): 83-98.
[8]	Barbier E B, Delacote P, Wolfersberger J.The economic analysis of the forest transition: a review[J]. Journal of Forest Economics, 2017, 27: 10-17.
[9]	Ge D, Long H, Zhang Y, et al.Farmland transition and its influences on grain production in China[J]. Land Use Policy, 2018, 70: 94-105.
[10]	Liu J, Zhang Z, Xu X, et al.Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China in the early 21st century[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2010, 20(4): 483-494.
[11]	龙花楼, 李婷婷. 中国耕地和农村宅基地利用转型耦合分析[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(2): 201-210.
	[Long H L, Li T T.Analysis of the coupling of farmland and rural housing land transition in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(2): 201-210. ]
[12]	李秀彬, 赵宇鸾. 森林转型、农地边际化与生态恢复[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2011, 21(10): 91-95.
	[Li X B, Zhao Y L.Forest transition, agricultural land marginalization and ecological restoration[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2011, 21(10): 91-95. ]
[13]	邵景安, 张仕超, 李秀彬. 山区耕地边际化特征及其动因与政策含义[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(2): 227-242.
	[Shao J A, Zhang S C, Li X B.Farmland marginalization in the mountainous area: characteristics, influence factors and policy implications[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(2): 227-242. ]
[14]	宋小青, 吴志峰, 欧阳竹. 1949 年以来中国耕地功能变化[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(4): 435-447.
	[Song X Q, Wu Z F, Ouyang Z.Changes of cultivated land function in China since 1949[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(4): 435-447. ]
[15]	王晓瑜, 胡守庚, 童陆亿. 团风县耕地资源价值及其空间分布[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(2): 206-216.
	[Wang X Y, Hu S G, Tong L Y.Evaluation and spatial distribution patterns of prefectural cultivated land resource multi-value in Tuanfeng, Hubei[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(2): 206-216. ]
[16]	杨忍, 刘彦随, 郭丽英, 等. 环渤海地区农村空心化程度与耕地利用集约度的时空变化及其耦合关系[J]. 地理科学进展, 2013, 32(2): 181-190.
	[Yang R, Liu Y S, Guo L Y, et al.Spatial-temporal characteristics for rural hollowing and cultivated land use intensive degree: taking the Circum-Bohai Sea region in China as an example[J]. Progress in Geography, 2013, 32(2): 181-190. ]
[17]	陈百明, 杜红亮. 试论耕地占用与GDP增长的脱钩研究[J]. 资源科学, 2006, 28(5): 36-42.
	[Chen B M, Du H L.Analyzing decoupling relationship between arable land occupation and GDP growth[J]. Resources Science, 2006, 28(5): 36-42. ]
[18]	Li T, Long H, Zhang Y, et al.Analysis of the spatial mismatch of grain production and farmland resources in China based on the potential crop rotation system[J]. Land Use Policy, 2017, 60: 26-36.
[19]	龙花楼, 李秀彬. 中国耕地转型与土地整理: 研究进展与框架[J]. 地理科学进展, 2006, 25(5): 67-76.
	[Long H L, Li X B.Cultivated-land transition and land consolidation and reclamation in China: research progress and frame[J]. Progress in Geography, 2006, 25(5): 67-76. ]
[20]	李全峰, 胡守庚, 瞿诗进. 1990-2015年长江中游地区耕地利用转型时空特征[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(8): 1489-1502.
	[Li Q F, Hu S G, Zhai S J.Spatiotemporal characteristics of cultivated land use transition in the Middle Yangtze River from 1990 to 2015[J]. Geographical Research, 2017, 36(8): 1489-1502. ]
[21]	宋小青, 吴志峰, 欧阳竹. 耕地转型的研究路径探讨[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(3): 403-413.
	[Song X Q, Wu Z F, Ouyang Z.Route of cultivated land transition research[J]. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(3): 403-413. ]
[22]	戈大专, 龙花楼, 张英男, 等. 中国县域粮食产量与农业劳动力变化的格局及其耦合关系[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(6): 1063-1077.
	[Ge D Z, Long H L, Zhang Y N, et al. 2017. Pattern and coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes at county level in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 72(6): 1063-1077. ]
[23]	Long H, Tu S, Ge D, et al.The allocation and management of critical resources in rural China under restructuring: problems and prospects[J]. Journal of Rural Studies, 2016, 47: 392-412.
[24]	Hussain A.Demographic transition in China and its implications[J]. World Development, 2002, 30(10): 1823-1834.
[25]	Long H, Li Y, Liu Y, et al.Accelerated restructuring in rural China fueled by 'increasing vs. decreasing balance' land-use policy for dealing with hollowed villages[J]. Land Use Policy, 2012, 29(1): 11-22.
[26]	Liu Y, Yang R, Long H, et al.Implications of land-use change in rural China: a case study of Yucheng, Shandong Province[J]. Land Use Policy, 2014, 40: 111-118.
[27]	Kirk D.Demographic transition theory[J]. Population Studies, 1996, 50(3): 361-387.
[28]	Liu G, Wang H, Cheng Y, et al.The impact of rural out-migration on arable land use intensity: evidence from mountain areas in Guangdong, China[J]. Land Use Policy, 2016, 59: 569-579.
[29]	Cai F.Demographic transition, demographic dividend, and Lewis turning point in China[J]. China Economic Journal, 2010, 3(2): 107-119.
[30]	蔡运龙, 汪勇, 李玉平. 中国耕地供需变化规律研究[J]. 中国土地科学, 2009, 23(3): 11-18.
	[Cai Y L, Wang Y, Li Y P.Study on changing relationship of demand and supply of cultivated land in China[J]. China Land Science, 2009, 23(3): 11-18. ]
[31]	Wang X, Huang J, Rozelle S.Off-farm employment and agricultural specialization in China[J]. China Economic Review, 2017, 42: 155-165.
[32]	国家地球系统数据共享平台-中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所. 中国地区土地利用/土地覆盖数据集[EB/OL]. (2016-08-16)[2017-8-05]. .
	[Earth System National Sharing Data Platform-Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Land Use / Land Cover Data Set of China [EB/OL]. (2016-08-16)[2017-8-05]. ]
[33]	Gaughan A E, Stevens F R, Huang Z, et al.Spatiotemporal patterns of population in mainland China, 1990 to 2010[J]. Scientific Data, 2016, doi: 10.1038/sdata.2016.5.
[34]	国家统计局农村社会经济调查司. 中国县(市)社会经济统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2011.
	[Department of rural social and economic investigation of the National Bureau of Statistics. China County Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2011]
[35]	周立三, 孙颔, 沈煜清, 等. 中国综合农业区划[M]. 北京: 农业出版社, 1981.
	[Zhou L S, Sun H, Shen Y Q, et al.China's Comprehensive Agricultural Division[M]. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 1981. ]
[36]	吴传钧, 郭焕成. 中国土地利用[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1994.
	[Wu C J, Guo H C.Land Use of China[M]. Beijing: Press of Science, 1994. ]
[37]	Anselin L.Under the hood issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models[J]. Agricultural Economics, 2002, 27(3): 247-267.
[38]	龚胜生, 林月辉, 戈大专. 三峡地区城市与河流关系的时空演化研究[J]. 地理学报, 2013, 68(12): 1619-1631.
	[Gong S S, Lin Y H, Ge D Z.A research on the spatial-temporal process of relationship between cities and rivers of the Three Gorges Area[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(12): 1619-1631. ]
[39]	朱会义, 李秀彬, 辛良杰. 现阶段我国耕地利用集约度变化及其政策启示[J]. 自然资源学报, 2007, 22(6): 907-915.
	[Zhu H Y, Li X B, Xin L J.Intensity change in cultivated land use in China and its policy implications[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2007, 22(6): 907-915. ]
[40]	许丽丽, 李宝林, 袁烨城, 等. 2000-2010年中国耕地变化与耕地占补平衡政策效果分析[J]. 资源科学, 2015, 37(8): 1543-1551.
	[Xu L L, Li B L, Yuan Y C, et al.Changes in China's cultivated land and the evaluation of land requisition compensation balance policy from 2000 to 2010[J]. Resources Science, 2015, 37(8): 1543-1551. ]
[41]	张立新, 朱道林, 谢保鹏, 等. 中国粮食主产区耕地利用效率时空格局演变及影响因素-基于180 个地级市的实证研究[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(4): 608-619.
	[Zhang L X, Zhu D L, Xie B P, et al.Spatiotemporal pattern evolvement and driving factors of cultivated land utilization efficiency of the major grain producing area in China[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(4): 608-619. ]
[42]	He C, Li J, Wang Y, et al.Understanding cultivated land dynamics and its driving forces in northern China during 1983-2001[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2005, 15(4): 387-395.
[43]	Shi W, Tao F, Liu J.Changes in quantity and quality of cropland and the implications for grain production in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China[J]. Food Security, 2013, 5(1): 69-82.
[44]	Cartier C.'Zone fever', the arable land debate, and real estate speculation: China's evolving land use regime and its geographical contradictions[J]. Journal of Contemporary China, 2001, 10(28): 445-469.
[45]	顾行发, 李闽榕, 徐东华. 中国可持续发展遥感监测报告[M]. 北京: 社会科学文献出版社, 2017.
	[Gu X F, Li M R, Xu D H.Report on Remote Sensing Monitoring of China Sustainable Development[M]. Beijing: Social Scientific Academic Press, 2017. ]
[46]	Wei Y D.Zone fever, project fever: development policy, economic transition, and urban expansion in China[J]. Geographical Review, 2015, 105(2): 156-177.
[47]	Xu Z, Xu J, Deng X, et al.Grain for green versus grain: Conflict between food security and conservation set-aside in China[J]. World Development, 2006, 34(1): 130-148.
[48]	Su S, Sun Y, Lei C, et al.Reorienting paradoxical land use policies towards coherence: a self-adaptive ensemble learning geo-simulation of tea expansion under different scenarios in subtropical China[J]. Land Use Policy, 2017, 67: 415-425.
[49]	李升发, 李秀彬. 耕地撂荒研究进展与展望[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(3): 370-389.
	[Li S F, Li X B.Progress and prospect on farmland abandonment[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(3): 370-389. ]
[50]	Li T, Long H, Liu Y, et al.Multi-scale analysis of rural housing land transition under China's rapid urbanization: the case of Bohai Rim[J]. Habitat International, 2015, 48: 227-238.

列表	变量	描述/单位
因变量	PCFC	人均耕地面积变化率
自变量
自然因素	Elevation	平均海拔/m
自然因素	Slope	平均坡度/°
区位因素	Dis2city	与地级市的最近距离/km
	Dis2river	与主要河流的距离/km
	Dis2railway	与主要铁路的最近距离/km
社会经济因素	PGDP	人均GDP/元
	AIR	灌溉面积占播种面积的比重/%
	CPGDP	人均GDP变化/%
	CAIR	灌溉比率变化/%

	人口比重/%			耕地比重/%				人均耕地面积/hm²
	1990年		2000年	2010年	1990年	2000年	2010年	1990年	2000年	2010年
胡焕庸线东南部	94.21	93.97	93.79	87.62	87.18	86.63		0.34	0.33	0.36
胡焕庸线西北部	5.79	6.03	6.21	12.38	12.82	13.37		1.38	1.43	1.44
东北区	10.23	9.79	9.57	16.31	17.67	17.88		0.81	0.89	0.94
黄淮海区	25.19	25.04	24.99	17.29	16.76	16.61		0.16	0.13	0.13
长三角区	9.78	9.83	10.85	5.88	5.60	5.36		0.18	0.16	0.16
长江中下游区	21.00	20.07	19.35	14.16	13.83	13.71		0.16	0.15	0.15
珠三角区	5.15	6.77	7.85	2.01	1.88	1.73		0.13	0.11	0.10
华南区	5.08	4.99	5.09	4.58	4.48	4.47		0.34	0.32	0.34
西南区	19.26	18.59	17.10	17.35	17.05	16.99		0.24	0.24	0.26
黄土高原区	7.82	7.89	7.74	8.72	8.61	8.49		0.42	0.40	0.41
内蒙区	3.80	3.69	3.68	8.32	8.63	8.63		1.14	1.20	1.34
甘新区	2.51	2.73	2.90	4.83	4.95	5.57		1.61	1.53	1.58
青藏区	0.41	0.40	0.43	0.54	0.55	0.56		1.78	1.79	1.73

变量	PCFC 1990-2000（SEM）	变量	PCFC 2000-2010（SEM）
常数项	-0.57*	常数项	12.07***
PCFA_1990	4.16***	PCFA_2000	1.20***
Elevation	-0.12	Elevation	5.09**
Slope	8.48***	Slope	1.13
Dis2city	45.41***	Dis2city	8.02***
Dis2river	17.75***	Dis2river	1.12
Dis2railway	-23.69***	Dis2railway	-1.48
PGDP_1990	-3.86	PGDP_2000	-14.16***
AIR_1990	-2.28	AIR_2000	-7.63***
CPGDP_1990-2000	-0.01	CPGDP_2000-2010	-2.39*
CAIR_1990-2000	3.64*	CAIR_2000-2010	-5.98**
LAMBDA	0.93***	LAMBDA	0.97***
R²	0.73	R²	0.86
AIC	461 342	AIC	441 159
SC	461 440	SC	441 258
Log likelihood	-230 659.78	Log likelihood	-220 568.71
Lagrange Multiplier （lag）	97 503.20***	Lagrange Multiplier （lag）	137 354.00 ***
Robust LM （lag）	18.82***	Robust LM （lag）	894.14***
Lagrange Multiplier （error）	97 868.80***	Lagrange Multiplier （error）	137 586.03***
Robust LM （error）	384.42***	Robust LM （error）	1 125.81***