济南市主城区私家车日常出行碳排放特征及影响因素

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.02.04

资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 262-272.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.02.04

济南市主城区私家车日常出行碳排放特征及影响因素

刘清春^1,²(), 张莹莹¹, 肖燕³, 袁玉娟², 夏海斌^4,⁵

1. 山东财经大学经济学院,济南 250014
2. 山东财经大学区域经济研究院,济南 250014
3. 聊城大学环境与规划学院,聊城 252000
4. 华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海 200241
5. 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海 200241

收稿日期:2017-07-10 修回日期:2017-11-10 出版日期:2018-02-20 发布日期:2018-02-11
作者简介:
作者简介：刘清春,女,山东诸城人,博士,副教授,研究领域为城市地理和区域经济。E-mail:lqc7919@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41401163,41401657）;山东省高等学校科学计划一般项目（J17KA194）

Characteristics and determinants of carbon emissions from daily private cars travel in central area of Jinan

Qingchun LIU^1,²(), Yingying ZHANG¹, Yan XIAO³, Yujuan YUAN², Haibin XIA^4,⁵

1. School of Economics, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China
2. Institute of Regional Economy, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China
3. College of Environment and Planning, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252000, China
4. School of Geography Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
5. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200241, China

Received:2017-07-10 Revised:2017-11-10 Online:2018-02-20 Published:2018-02-11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

私家车出行方式对城市交通碳排放的影响巨大,如何促使居民出行行为的转变是城市实现绿色交通和低碳发展的关键问题。基于济南市主城区居民日常出行的调查数据,本文分析了私家车日常出行碳排放的基本特征,并应用Heckman两步估计法计量模型,研究了私家车碳排放的影响因素,结果发现：①私家车日常出行年碳排放量的平均值为2.22t,空间分布呈现中心低、外围高的差异化格局,个体分布则符合60/20的量化分布;②与社会经济因素相比,建成环境因素对私家车碳排放的影响更为显著,公共交通可达性水平的提高和职住距离的缩短虽然有助于降低私家车出行概率,但对私家车碳排放的减少并无显著影响,而提高居住地人口密度、完善商服设施供给、促进周边土地利用的多元化则可有效降低长距离的出行需求,减少碳排放量。

关键词: 城市建成环境, 私家车日常出行, 碳排放, 影响因素, 济南市主城区

Abstract:

As car travel has a great impact on urban transport carbon emissions, promoting a change in residents' daily travel behavior is the key to achieving urban green transportation and low-carbon development. Based on daily travel survey data of residents in central area of Jinan we analyzed the characteristics and determinants of carbon emissions from daily private cars. We found that private cars are the main means of transportation for residents in Jinan, and the average annual carbon emissions from private cars is 2.22 tons, and the spatial distribution of carbon emissions from private cars reveals a pattern of differentiation increasing from the center outward. The individual distribution is consistent with the quantification principle of 60/20. A Heckman two-step model was used to explore influencers factors of carbon emissions from private cars, and results indicate that urban built environment factors play a more important role in carbon emissions from private cars compared with socio-economic factors. Regarding socio-economic factors, the increase in income level and family size increases the probability of private car travel rather than the carbon emissions of private cars. For urban built environment factors, both the improvement of transport infrastructure and optimization of job-housing distance significantly decrease the probability of private car travel but have no significant effect on carbon emissions from private cars. However, increasing the residential population density, improving the supply of commercial service facilities and promoting diversity of land use in surrounding communities can effectively reduce long distance travel demands and carbon emissions.

Key words: urban built environment, daily private cars travel, carbon emissions, determinants, central area of Jinan

刘清春, 张莹莹, 肖燕, 袁玉娟, 夏海斌. 济南市主城区私家车日常出行碳排放特征及影响因素[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(2): 262-272.

Qingchun LIU, Yingying ZHANG, Yan XIAO, Yujuan YUAN, Haibin XIA. Characteristics and determinants of carbon emissions from daily private cars travel in central area of Jinan[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(2): 262-272.

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变量	变量类型	描述	均值
出行特征
出行方式	虚拟变量	1=私家车（43.3%）;0=其他（56.7%）
私家车出行距离/km	连续变量	一周内私家车的日常出行公里数	198.000
个人及家庭社会经济属性
年龄/岁	等级变量	1=20~30岁（15.3%）;2=31~40岁（35.6%）;3=41~50岁（45.5%）;4=51~60岁（3.4%）;5=60岁以上（0.2%）	2.382
收入/（元/月）	等级变量	1=2 000元以下（7.4%）;2=2 000~3 000元（24.1%）;3=3 000~5 000元（34.6%）;4=5 000元以上（33.9%）	2.892
受教育水平	等级变量	1=初中及以下（6.2%）;2=高中（11.6%）;3=大专（26.5%）;4=本科及以上（55.7%）	3.324
家庭规模/人	连续变量	家庭人口数量	3.434
私家车拥有量/辆	连续变量	私家车拥有数量	1.880
城市建成环境变量
居住区位/km	连续变量	居住点到泉城广场的距离	5.852
人口密度/（人/km²）	连续变量	居民居住地所属街道人口除以街道面积	13 059.000
公交站牌距离/m	等级变量	1=50m以内（19.7%）;2=50~100m（28.1%）;3=100m以上（52.2%）	2.321
转车次数	等级变量	1=不需要转车（48.1%）;2=转车一次（30.5%）;3=转车两次及以上（21.4%）	1.737
商服设施供给/km	连续变量	居住点距其5km范围内最近大型超市的距离	1.537
土地利用混合度	连续变量	居住区街道不同土地利用的混合程度	0.723
停车便利性	等级变量	1=非常不方便（27.6%）;2=不方便（11.5%）;3=一般（26.2%）;4=方便（14.0%）;5=非常方便（20.7%）	2.882
职住距离/km	连续变量	居住点到工作单位的距离	8.211

变量	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）
收入	0.035***	-	0.046**	0.048***
收入	(0.010)	-	(0.020)	(0.016)
年龄	0.009	-	0.012	-
年龄	(0.019)	-	(0.031)	-
教育水平	-0.001	-	-0.004	-
教育水平	(0.017)	-	(0.029)	-
家庭规模	-0.052***	-	-0.093***	-0.092***
家庭规模	(0.015)	-	(0.022)	(0.024)
私家车拥有量	0.398***	-	0.317***	0.323***
私家车拥有量	(0.021)	-	(0.047)	(0.044)
居住区位	-	0.009	-0.021	-
居住区位	-	(0.045)	(0.043)	-
人口密度	-	0.005	0.001	-
人口密度	-	(0.019)	(0.018)	-
转车次数	-	-0.018	-0.003	-
转车次数	-	(0.030)	(0.029)	-
公交站牌距离	-	0.052*	0.035	-
公交站牌距离	-	(0.027)	(0.025)	-
商服设施供给	-	0.020	0.052*	0.060**
商服设施供给	-	(0.031)	(0.030)	(0.028)
土地利用混合度	-	-0.041	-0.039
土地利用混合度	-	(0.169)	(0.162)
停车便利性	-	0.0030	0.000 1
停车便利性	-	(0.014)	(0.014)
职住距离	-	0.115***	0.097***	0.102***
职住距离	-	(0.027)	(0.026)	(0.023)
Pseudo R²	0.215	0.051	0.259	0.257
Log likelihood	-532.232	-549.713	-366.660	-367.782
LR	293.183	58.825	284.012	281.069

变量	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）
收入	0.008	-	-0.041	-
	(0.036)	-	(0.046)	-
年龄	-0.052	-	-0.019	-
	(0.046)	-	(0.066)	-
教育水平	0.018	-	0.004	-
	(0.052)	-	(0.074)	-
家庭规模	-0.047	-	0.007	-
	(0.038)	-	(0.061)	-
私家车拥有量	0.145*	-	0.097	-
	(0.077)	-	(0.105)	-
居住区位	-	0.045	0.051	-
	-	(0.086)	(0.088)	-
人口密度	-	-0.067*	-0.062*	-0.075**
	-	(0.035)	(0.037)	(0.035)
转车次数	-	0.003	0.001	-
	-	(0.056)	(0.057)	-
公交站牌距离	-	0.036	0.026	-
	-	(0.055)	(0.056)	-
商服设施供给	-	0.118*	0.126*	0.128**
	-	(0.064)	(0.069)	(0.063)
土地利用混合度	-	-0.643*	-0.708**	-0.690**
	-	(0.330)	(0.339)	(0.325)
停车便利性	-	0.006	0.006	-
	-	(0.029)	(0.030)	-
职住距离	-	0.008	0.011	-
	-	(0.058)	(0.06)	-
常数项	7.442***	8.642***	8.564***	8.904***
	(0.270)	(0.648)	(0.785)	(0.577)
R²	0.125	0.201	0.262	0.283
F	10.528	22.725	25.321	32.513

济南市主城区私家车日常出行碳排放特征及影响因素

Characteristics and determinants of carbon emissions from daily private cars travel in central area of Jinan

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