资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 227-236.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.02.01
• • 下一篇
收稿日期:
2017-10-21
修回日期:
2017-11-28
出版日期:
2018-02-20
发布日期:
2018-02-11
作者简介:
作者简介:刘宗明,男,山东青岛人,博士,讲师,硕士生导师,研究领域为数量经济、宏观经济、能源经济。E-mail:
基金资助:
Received:
2017-10-21
Revised:
2017-11-28
Online:
2018-02-20
Published:
2018-02-11
摘要:
国际油价与原油进口的相关关系问题历来备受关注。基于线性模型的传统研究显示,中国原油进口的价格弹性远远低于其他国家的估计范围,而已有的研究很难完全解释这一问题。考虑到经典线性模型很可能掩盖了两者真正的关联机制,本文将从非对称效应的角度解释这一“低弹性之谜”。首先利用非线性检验确认了传统向量自回归模型中的非线性成分,然后建立平滑转换向量自回归模型(LSTVAR)刻画国际油价与原油进口的动态关联机制。广义脉冲响应函数(GIRF)显示,油价冲击对原油进口的影响存在两个维度的非对称效应。首先是正负油价冲击效应的非对称性,特别是在“经济低速发展阶段”表现得尤为显著,油价下跌对原油进口的影响要比油价上涨时的影响更强;其次是不同发展阶段的效应非对称性,无论对于何种冲击,在“经济低速发展阶段”,原油进口对油价变化的反应程度都要比“经济高速发展阶段”的反应程度更加剧烈。本文在两个层次上揭示了油价冲击的非对称效应,进而较为成功地解开了原油进口的“低弹性之谜”,这对于政府在不同经济环境下差异化定向制定相应的原油进口策略和宏观调控政策具有重要启示意义。
刘宗明, 吴正倩. 国际油价冲击、中国原油进口“低弹性之谜”与双维非对称动态[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(2): 227-236.
Zongming LIU, Zhengqian WU. Oil price shocks, the puzzling price elasticity of Chinese oil imports and double-dimensional asymmetric effects[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(2): 227-236.
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