京津冀CO2排放的时空差异及影响因素研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.01.19

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

研究京津冀CO₂排放的时空特性及影响因素,对实现京津冀生态环境协同治理具有重要的理论及实践意义。本文首先对2000—2014年京津冀CO₂排放的时空特性进行了分析,然后利用LMDI分解方法对京津冀CO₂排放的影响因素进行总体分析。并在此基础上,结合LMDI分解方法和M-R空间分解方法,本文具体分析了京津冀CO₂排放时空差异的影响因素。研究发现：① 研究期内京津冀CO₂排放增长迅速,从2000年的3.67亿t增长到2014年的10.02亿t。其中,河北对京津冀CO₂排放贡献最大,达到72.02%。② 经济总量（贡献度：152.17%）是导致京津冀CO₂排放增长的主要因素。能源利用效率（贡献度：-56.29 %）和能源结构调整（贡献度：-34.39 %）是抑制京津冀CO₂排放增长的主要因素。此外,产业结构调整、收入提高和城镇化也是导致京津冀CO₂排放增长的重要因素。③ 京津冀各地区CO₂排放差异不断扩大。经济总量大和能源利用效率低是河北CO₂排放高于京津翼平均水平的主要原因,以优质能源为主的能源结构是北京CO₂排放低于京津翼平均水平的主要原因。

关键词: CO₂排放, 时空特性, 时间分解, 空间分解, 京津冀

Abstract:

Exploring temporal and spatial pattern evolution and driving forces for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has important theoretical and practical significance in achieving collaborative governance of the ecological environment. This study analyzed CO₂ emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region over 2000-2014 from temporal and spatial angles. Using the LMDI method, we generally explored driving forces of CO₂ emissions. Then, combining LMDI method and M-R spatial decomposition method, this study identifies the key driving forces of the changes and the differences of CO2 emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. We found that there has been a significant increase in CO₂ emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, from 0. 37 billion tons in 2000 to 1. 00 billion tons in 2014. Accumulatively, Hebei province contributes most of 72. 02% to CO₂ emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2000-2014. Increase in economic output plays a significant role in increasing the CO₂ emissions, with contribution of 152. 17%. Both energy efficiency improvement (contribution degree: -56. 29 %) and energy structure adjustment (contribution degree: -34. 39 %) are important factors to reduce CO₂ emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In addition, industrial structure adjustment, income improvement and urbanization are significant factors affecting CO₂ emissions. Gaps in CO₂ emissions between Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei regions and the average level expanded during 2000-2014. High economic output and low energy efficiency resulted in the higher CO₂ emissions in Hebei than the average. However, clean-energy-dominated energy structure plays a dominant role in lowing CO₂ emissions of Beijing.

Key words: CO₂ emissions, spatio-temporal features, temporal decomposition analysis, spatial decomposition analysis, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

赵玉焕, 李浩, 刘娅, 曹叶, 张中华, 王淞. 京津冀CO₂排放的时空差异及影响因素研究[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(1): 207-215.

Yuhuan ZHAO, Hao LI, Ya LIU, Ye CAO, Zhonghua ZHANG, Song WANG. Identifying driving forces of CO₂ emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from temporal and spatial angles[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(1): 207-215.

图/表 5

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京津冀CO₂排放的时空差异及影响因素研究

Identifying driving forces of CO₂ emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from temporal and spatial angles

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