资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 207-215.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.01.19

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京津冀CO2排放的时空差异及影响因素研究

赵玉焕(), 李浩(), 刘娅, 曹叶, 张中华, 王淞   

  1. 北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2017-06-12 修回日期:2017-08-22 出版日期:2018-01-20 发布日期:2018-01-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介: 赵玉焕,女,山东菏泽人,博士,副教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为能源经济与环境政策、国际贸易与气候变化。E-mail: zhaoyuhuan@bit.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(71273026);北京市自然科学基金面上项目(9172015);北京市社会科学基金项目(17JDYJB010);北京理工大学研究生科技创新活动专项计划项目(2017CX10060)

Identifying driving forces of CO2 emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from temporal and spatial angles

Yuhuan ZHAO(), Hao LI(), Ya LIU, Ye CAO, Zhonghua ZHANG, Song WANG   

  1. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2017-06-12 Revised:2017-08-22 Online:2018-01-20 Published:2018-01-20

摘要:

研究京津冀CO2排放的时空特性及影响因素,对实现京津冀生态环境协同治理具有重要的理论及实践意义。本文首先对2000—2014年京津冀CO2排放的时空特性进行了分析,然后利用LMDI分解方法对京津冀CO2排放的影响因素进行总体分析。并在此基础上,结合LMDI分解方法和M-R空间分解方法,本文具体分析了京津冀CO2排放时空差异的影响因素。研究发现:① 研究期内京津冀CO2排放增长迅速,从2000年的3.67亿t增长到2014年的10.02亿t。其中,河北对京津冀CO2排放贡献最大,达到72.02%。② 经济总量(贡献度:152.17%)是导致京津冀CO2排放增长的主要因素。能源利用效率(贡献度:-56.29 %)和能源结构调整(贡献度:-34.39 %)是抑制京津冀CO2排放增长的主要因素。此外,产业结构调整、收入提高和城镇化也是导致京津冀CO2排放增长的重要因素。③ 京津冀各地区CO2排放差异不断扩大。经济总量大和能源利用效率低是河北CO2排放高于京津翼平均水平的主要原因,以优质能源为主的能源结构是北京CO2排放低于京津翼平均水平的主要原因。

关键词: CO2排放, 时空特性, 时间分解, 空间分解, 京津冀

Abstract:

Exploring temporal and spatial pattern evolution and driving forces for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has important theoretical and practical significance in achieving collaborative governance of the ecological environment. This study analyzed CO2 emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region over 2000-2014 from temporal and spatial angles. Using the LMDI method, we generally explored driving forces of CO2 emissions. Then, combining LMDI method and M-R spatial decomposition method, this study identifies the key driving forces of the changes and the differences of CO2 emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. We found that there has been a significant increase in CO2 emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, from 0. 37 billion tons in 2000 to 1. 00 billion tons in 2014. Accumulatively, Hebei province contributes most of 72. 02% to CO2 emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2000-2014. Increase in economic output plays a significant role in increasing the CO2 emissions, with contribution of 152. 17%. Both energy efficiency improvement (contribution degree: -56. 29 %) and energy structure adjustment (contribution degree: -34. 39 %) are important factors to reduce CO2 emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In addition, industrial structure adjustment, income improvement and urbanization are significant factors affecting CO2 emissions. Gaps in CO2 emissions between Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei regions and the average level expanded during 2000-2014. High economic output and low energy efficiency resulted in the higher CO2 emissions in Hebei than the average. However, clean-energy-dominated energy structure plays a dominant role in lowing CO2 emissions of Beijing.

Key words: CO2 emissions, spatio-temporal features, temporal decomposition analysis, spatial decomposition analysis, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei