资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 195-206.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.01.18

• • 上一篇    下一篇

基于投入产出法的中国物流业碳排放测算及影响因素研究

王丽萍(), 刘明浩   

  1. 河南理工大学财经学院,焦作454000
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-23 修回日期:2017-07-26 出版日期:2018-01-20 发布日期:2018-01-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介: 王丽萍,女,山西昔阳人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事环境经济研究。E-mail: lindsey18@hpu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划(18HASTIT033);全国统计科学研究项目(2017LY09);河南理工大学人文社会科学研究决策咨询专项(SKJC2017-02)

Carbon emission measurement for China's logistics industry and its influence factors based on input-output method

Liping WANG(), Minghao LIU   

  1. School of Finance and Economics, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China
  • Received:2017-05-23 Revised:2017-07-26 Online:2018-01-20 Published:2018-01-20

摘要:

随着中国对节能减排的高度重视,碳排放测算与分析显得愈发重要和迫切。本文对1997—2014年间中国物流业的直接能源消耗碳排放和基于投入产出表的隐含碳排放进行了测算,研究结果显示:前者大大低估了物流业的碳排放水平,2000年以来间接碳排放对物流业碳排放总量的贡献已经超过了直接能耗碳排放,2014年直接能耗碳排放占碳排放总量的比重不足40%。进一步的碳排放影响因素分解结果显示,经济规模对物流业碳排放的正向驱动效应最大,总贡献率为36.16%;其次,服务业经济发展带动中国物流业碳排放的增加,总贡献率为5.21%;再次,低碳技术的使用有利于抑制碳排放的增加,总贡献率为26.50%,但近两年低碳技术的进步迟缓;最后,行业效率提升对物流业碳排放的负向驱动效应明显,但这种作用效果不稳定,1997—2014年行业效率对物流业碳排放的总贡献率为21.72%。随着中国经济,尤其是制造业的持续快速发展,对物流业的服务需求还会继续扩张,由此导致的物流业间接碳排放增长态势不容忽视,因此,要想实现物流业低碳化发展不仅要从加快清洁能源的推广使用、提高物流业的行业技术效率等方面采取措施,而且也要加快提高中国国民经济各部门的低碳化水平。

关键词: 物流业, 碳排放, 投入产出法, 影响因素, 中国

Abstract:

With great attention on energy conservation and emission reduction, the calculation and analysis of carbon emissions are becoming more important and urgent. Here, carbon emissions from direct energy consumption and implicit carbon emissions based on input-output table in China's logistics industry from 1997-2014 were calculated. We found that the former greatly underestimated the carbon emissions level of the logistics industry: since 2000 the contribution of indirect carbon emissions of the logistics industry has exceeded direct energy consumption carbon emissions. The proportion of direct carbon emissions accounting for total carbon emissions was less than 40% in 2014. Further carbon emission influence factor decomposition shows that the positive driving effect of economic scale on carbon emissions in the logistics industry is most, the total contribution rate is 36. 16%. Economic development of the service industry has led to an increase in carbon emissions in China's logistics industry, with a total contribution rate of 5. 21%. The use of low carbon technology is conducive to curb the carbon emissions increase, the total contribution rate of 26. 50%, but in recent years slow progress in low-carbon technology. The reverse driving effect of industry efficiency on carbon emissions in the logistics industry is obvious, but the effect is not stable. On the whole, the total contribution rate of industry efficiency on carbon emissions in the logistics industry is 21. 72% for 1997-2014. With rapid development of manufacturing, the service demand of the logistics industry will continue to increase in China and indirect carbon emissions growth should not be ignored. To realize the low carbon development of the logistics industry, we should accelerate the promotion of the use of clean energy, from the aspects of improving technical efficiency of the logistics and accelerating improvements in the low carbon levels of China's national economic departments.

Key words: logistics industry, carbon emissions, input output method, influence factors, China