1980年以来河南省主要粮食作物产量对气候变化的敏感性分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.01.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据1980—2015年河南省及周边39个气象站点逐日观测数据,选取与主要粮食作物生育机理相关的气候指标,运用气候统计方法分析河南省主要粮食作物生育期内水热气候要素的时空变化。结合统计数据,运用面板非线性回归模型分析主要粮食作物产量对气候变化的敏感性。研究发现：①河南省冬小麦返青期最低气温和生育期平均气温均呈显著增加趋势,在空间上两者升温速率呈现从河南省中部向周边递减的特征。夏玉米生育期总日照时数呈明显减少趋势,其减少速度在豫中地区最快,在豫西南地区最慢。②从敏感效应来看,冬小麦和夏玉米产量分别对生育期平均气温和生育期总日照时数的敏感效应最强,对生育期总降水量的敏感效应均最弱。从敏感区看,冬小麦产量敏感区主要分布在豫北、豫西和豫南地区,夏玉米则集中在豫西和豫东地区。③冬小麦生育期平均气温突变后有利于除豫北以外共83.3%区域内产量的增加,返青期最低气温突变后有利于豫北和豫东共44.4%区域内产量的增加。夏玉米生育期总日照时数突变后对豫中和豫西共44.4%区域的产量增加有利。

关键词: 气候变化, 敏感性, 作物生育期, 冬小麦, 夏玉米, 河南

Abstract:

Based on statistical agricultural data and daily meteorological data for 39 national-level meteorological stations in Henan province and surrounding areas from 1980 to 2015, we analyzed spatio-temporal changes in hydrothermal conditions during the growth stage of main grain crops. The sensitive effect of main crop yield to changes in climate factors was explored using nonlinear regression. We found that the regreening stage minimum temperature and mean temperature in the growth stage of winter wheat increased significantly: the rate of increase decreased from the center to outside Henan. The sunshine duration of the summer maize growth period decreased significantly, furthermore, central Henan was the fastest reduction area in sunshine duration while southwestern Henan had the slowest reduction. The yield of winter wheat and summer maize exhibited the largest sensitive effect to mean temperature and sunshine duration during the growth period, and both exhibited the smallest sensitive effect to precipitation during the growth period. However, the sensitive region of both caused by the precipitation during the growth period was the largest, accounting for 33.3% and 22.2% respectively. After change in climate factors, mean temperature in the growth stage of winter wheat was beneficial to the rise of winter wheat that grew in the area except for northern Henan, accounting for 83.3% of Henan. However, the regreening stage minimum temperature more easily augmented winter wheat growing in northern and eastern Henan, accounting for 44.4% of Henan. Sunshine duration in the growth stage of summer maize was more beneficial to increased summer maize that grew in central and western Henan, accounting for 44.4% of Henan.

Key words: climate change, sensitivity, grow period, winter wheat, summer maize, Henan Province

张荣荣, 宁晓菊, 秦耀辰, 赵凯娜, 李永贺. 1980年以来河南省主要粮食作物产量对气候变化的敏感性分析[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(1): 137-149.

Rongrong ZHANG, Xiaoju NING, Yaochen QIN, Kaina ZHAO, Yonghe LI. Analysis of sensitivity of main grain crops yield to climate change since 1980 in Henan Province[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(1): 137-149.

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	冬小麦返青期最低气温			冬小麦生育期平均气温				夏玉米生育期总日照时数
城市	突变前		突变后	差值	突变前	突变后	差值	突变前	突变后	差值
郑州	6.0	0.1	-5.9	-8.0	-1.0	7.1		-2.8	0.1	2.9
开封	-0.2	0.5	0.7	-0.6	1.6	2.2		3.9	-1.7	-5.6
洛阳	14.0	-0.5	-14.5	-25.6	-4.2	21.4		-4.9	0.3	5.2
平顶山	2.2	-0.1	-2.2	-11.7	0.6	12.3		-3.6	0.7	4.3
安阳	-1.4	0.3	1.6	5.1	0.9	-4.3		1.1	-0.5	-1.6
鹤壁	-3.4	-0.2	3.1	11.8	0.9	-10.8		3.9	-0.4	-4.3
新乡	-1.1	0.4	1.5	4.6	0.8	-3.9		1.2	-0.2	-1.5
焦作	1.0	-0.1	-1.1	-3.9	0.4	4.3		0.0	0.2	0.2
濮阳	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.0	0.4		3.5	-2.0	-5.5
许昌	2.0	0.1	-1.9	-8.1	0.9	9.1		-2.3	-0.4	1.9
漯河	-0.5	-0.2	0.3	-11.8	2.4	14.2		4.7	-0.6	-5.2
三门峡	9.6	-0.7	-10.3	-13.3	-7.9	5.3		-10.6	0.1	10.6
南阳	2.0	0.2	-1.8	-9.6	-1.7	8.0		-1.4	0.2	1.6
商丘	-2.7	-0.1	2.6	-15.7	1.6	17.3		2.5	-0.9	-3.4
信阳	5.3	-0.3	-5.6	1.5	3.0	1.5		5.8	1.7	-4.1
周口	2.7	-0.1	-2.8	-11.1	1.8	12.9		5.3	-0.4	-5.7
驻马店	10.8	0.7	-10.1	-3.2	2.7	5.9		4.8	1.4	-3.5
济源	无	无	无	无	无	无		无	无	无