资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 89-103.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.01.09

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长江三角洲地区用水量时空差异的驱动效应研究

张陈俊1(), 赵存学1, 林琳1, 余许友2   

  1. 1. 河海大学企业管理学院,常州 213022
    2. 阜阳师范学院经济学院,阜阳 236037
  • 收稿日期:2017-03-20 修回日期:2017-08-29 出版日期:2018-01-20 发布日期:2018-01-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:张陈俊,男,安徽六安人,博士,讲师,研究方向为管理科学理论与应用。E-mail: zhangchenjun1987@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(17YJC790194);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2016B15114);安徽省高校人文社科重点研究项目(SK2015A450)

Driving effect of spatial-temporal differences in water consumption in the Yangtze River Delta

Chenjun ZHANG1(), Cunxue ZHAO1, Lin LIN1, Xuyou YU2   

  1. 1. School of Business Administration, Hohai University, Changzhou 213022, China
    2. School of Economics, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China)
  • Received:2017-03-20 Revised:2017-08-29 Online:2018-01-20 Published:2018-01-20

摘要:

量化长三角地区用水量时空差异的驱动效应,对该地区节水型社会建设具有重要的意义。本文采用LMDI方法,将2000—2015年长三角用水量时空差异的驱动效应分解为强度效应、结构效应、收入效应和人口效应。研究发现,从时间角度看,产业用水强度下降和产业结构调整是用水量下降的驱动因素,尤其是前者,除上海第一产业外,长三角三次产业用水效率普遍提高;产业结构调整促进用水量下降的作用主要来源于第一产业;经济增长和人口增加促进了用水量增加。从空间角度看,用水量差异及其驱动效应与参考对象的选择密切相关;浙江第一、二产业用水效率提高促进用水量下降具有明显优势,而上海在第三产业上具有优势;上海产业结构更加高级化,而江苏和浙江的第一、二产业比重较大;江苏和浙江要努力控制人口规模,也是缩小用水量空间差异的有效途径。因此,长三角要采取有针对性、差别化的节水政策措施减少用水量,可以从技术进步、产业结构调整以及人口控制方面具体考虑,经济增长是社会前进的动力,反而会增加用水需求。

关键词: 长江三角洲地区, 时空差异, 用水量, LMDI

Abstract:

It is of great significance to the construction of a water-saving society to quantify the driving effect of spatial-temporal differences in water consumption in the Yangtze River Delta. Here, the LMDI method was used to decompose the effects influencing spatial-temporal differences in water consumption in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2015 into intensity, structure, income and population effects. We found that, from the perspective of time, the decline in industrial water intensity and industrial structural adjustment jointly give rise to a decline in water consumption, especially the former. Except for primary industry in Shanghai, three industries’ water efficiency is generally improved. On the other hand, the role of industrial restructuring mainly comes from primary industry. Economic growth and population increases contributed to the increase in water consumption. From a spatial perspective, differences in water consumption and driving effects are closely related to the selection of reference objects. Primary and secondary industries’ water efficiency in Zhejiang has an obvious advantage in reducing water consumption, water efficiency in Shanghai has an advantage in the tertiary industry. Shanghai’s industrial structure is more advanced, but primary and secondary industries in Jiangsu and Zhejiang make up a greater proportion. More effort is expected to control the size of the population in Zhejiang and Shanghai, and that is an effective way to narrow spatial differences. Targeted and differentiated water-saving policy measures should be adopted to reduce water consumption in the Yangtze River Delta region and should involve technological progress, industrial restructuring and population control. Economic growth will increase water demand, being the driving force of social progress and increase water demand.

Key words: Yangtze River Delta, spatio-temporal difference, water consumption, LMDI