基于供求关系的城镇建设用地适宜性评价——以扬州市为例

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.01.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文基于供求理论构建城镇建设用地适宜性评价指标体系,应用BP神经网络模型测算城镇建设用地适宜性,以期为城镇建设用地的科学配置奠定理论与实践基础,实现区域土地资源的可持续利用。研究结果表明,①基于供求理论,可以从本底条件、技术水平、区位交通、集约程度、人口密度、经济发展等方面构建城镇建设用地适宜性评价指标体系;②BP神经网络可准确反映各评价单元的城镇建设用地适宜性,有助于提高城镇建设用地适宜性评价结果的精度;③根据测算结果可将研究区分为四个区域：高度适宜区可进行大规模城镇建设用地开发,但应注重城镇建设用地组团式发展,促进产业结构优化升级;基本适宜区可依靠高度适宜区发展,适度开发城镇建设用地;勉强适宜区城镇建设用地开发受限条件多,以基本农田与生态保护优先,选择性发展具有自然生态保护和经济开发效益的绿色产业;不适宜区应注重通过政策扶持,保障粮食安全和生态安全;④将城镇建设用地适宜性评价结果与《扬州市土地利用总体规划（2006—2020年）》中新增城镇建设用地布局对比分析表明,规划新增城镇建设用地配置基本满足区域供求关系,但有部分位于勉强适宜区与不适宜区,建议将区内部分或全部规划新增城镇建设用地剔除或调整至高度适宜区与基本适宜区。

关键词: 城镇建设用地, 适宜性评价, 供求理论, BP神经网络, 扬州市

Abstract:

We established an evaluation index system of urban construction land suitability based on the theory of supply and demand, and calculated the suitability of urban construction land using BP neural networks in order to construct theoretical and practical foundations for the scientific allocation of urban construction land. Based on the theory of supply and demand, the suitability evaluation index system of urban construction land can be constructed according to background conditions, technical level, location and transportation, intensive degree, population density, and economic development. BP neural networks reflect the suitability of urban construction land for each evaluation unit, which helps to improve the precision of urban construction land suitability evaluation results. The research area can be divided into four regions. The highly suitable region area can be used for large-scale urban construction land development. The basically suitable region can fully develop relying on the highly suitable region and expand urban construction land moderately. The barely suitable region requires basic farmland protection and ecological protection, and the green industry with natural ecological protection and economic development benefits should be selectively developed. The unsuitable region should be given more policy support to ensure food security and ecological security. By comparing the suitability evaluation results of urban construction land and the layout of planning new urban construction land of ‘Rall Plan for Land Utilization of Yangzhou (2006-2020 year)’, most of the planning new urban construction land is located in the highly suitable area and the basically suitable region. However, some planning new urban construction land is located in the barely suitable region and unsuitable region respectively, so some or all of these should be eliminated or adjusted to highly suitable and suitable areas.

Key words: urban construction land, suitability evaluation, theory of supply and demand, BP neural network, Yangzhou City

孟霖, 郭杰, 孙驰, 欧名豪. 基于供求关系的城镇建设用地适宜性评价——以扬州市为例[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(1): 11-21.

Lin MENG, Jie GUO, Chi SUN, Minghao OU. Suitability evaluation of urban construction land based on supply and demand in Yangzhou City[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(1): 11-21.

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目标层	准则层一	准则层二	指标层/单位	变量说明
城镇建设用地适宜性评价	供给要素	本底条件	坡度/°	栅格的坡度
		技术水平	工业技改投入/万元	对技术研发的投入
		区位交通	距建成区距离/m	栅格到最近建成区距离
			距水域距离/m	栅格到最近河流、湖泊、水库的平均距离
			距生态保护区距离/m	栅格到最近生态保护区距离
			距基本农田保护区距离/m	栅格到最近基本农田保护区距离
			距公路距离/m	栅格到最近国道、省道、县道、乡道的平均距离
		集约程度	地均固定资产投资/（万元/hm²）	栅格所在行政村（街道）的固定资产投资/区域城镇建设用地面积
	需求要素	人口密度	城镇人口密度/（人/km²）	栅格所在行政村（街道）的城镇人口数量/区域总面积
	需求要素	经济发展	二、三产业增加值/（万元）	表示二、三产业增加值

目标层	准则层一	准则层二	指标层	城镇建设用地适宜等级
目标层	准则层一	准则层二	指标层	高度适宜	基本适宜	勉强适宜	不适宜
城镇建设用地适宜性	供给要素	本底条件	坡度/°	0.00~5.00	5.00~10.00	10.00~15.00	>15.00
		技术水平	工业技改投入/万元	>119.00	66.00~119.00	36.00~66.00	0.00~36.00
		区位交通	距建成区距离/m	0.00~500.00	500.00~1 500.00	1 500.00~3 000.00	>3 000.00
			距水域距离/m	>3 000.00	2 000.00~3 000.00	1 500.00~2 000.00	0.00~1 500.00
			距生态保护区距离/m	>1 000.00	800.00~1 000.00	500.00~800.00	0.00~500.00
			距基本农田保护区距离/m	>800.00	500.00~800.00	200.00~500.00	0.00~200.00
			距公路距离/m	0.00~300.00	300.00~1 000.00	1 000.00~2 000.00	>2 000.00
		集约程度	地均固定资产投资/（万元/hm²）	0.00~0.30	0.30~0.80	0.80~1.60	>1.60
	需求要素	人口密度	城镇人口密度/（人/km²）	>500.00	500.00~350.00	350.00~200.00	0.00~200.00
	需求要素	经济发展	二、三产业增加值/万元	>1 052.00	441.00~1 052.00	156.00~441.00	0~156.00

样本编号	坡度/°	工业技改投入/万元	距建城区距离/m	距水域距离/m	距生态保护区距离/m	距基本农田保护区距离/m	距公路距离/m	地均固定资产投资万元/hm²	城镇人口密度/（人/km²）	二三产业增加值/万元	期望输出	识别
1	0.00	I₁	0.00	I₂	I₃	I₄	0.00	0.30	I₆	I₇	1.00	高度适宜
2	5.00	119.00	500.00	3 000.00	1 000.00	800.00	300.00	0.80	500.00	1 052.00	0.75	基本适宜
3	10.00	66.00	1 500.00	2 000.00	800.00	500.00	1 000.00	1.60	350.00	441.00	0.50	勉强适宜
4	15.00	36.00	3 000.00	1 500.00	500.00	200.00	2 000.00	I₅	200.00	156.00	0.25	不适宜