世界主要国家碳排放影响因素分析——基于变系数面板模型

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.12.20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

碳减排不仅是中国政府面临的重要问题,同时是国际社会逐渐关注的热点话题。中国作为最大的温室气体排放国,借鉴发达国家经济发展及碳排放演变过程,有助于为自身碳减排打下坚实的基础。本文首先对比了不同国家碳排放及碳强度的变化趋势,然后利用变系数面板模型,从经济发展、产业结构、城镇化率、能源结构着手探究碳排放和碳强度的关键影响因素的作用规律,分析中国与世界主要国家碳排放的影响因素的异同。整体来看,美国、日本、英国、法国、意大利、加拿大等国家均已出现不同程度的碳排放总量拐点。对比2014年不同国家碳排放强度,中国碳排放强度为1.24kg/美元,远高于全球平均水平。不同影响因素对于不同国家碳排放影响程度各不相同,其中城市化率、可再生能源占比等对于碳排放降低均有着显著的作用。综合分析结果,从全球的角度对比不同国家经济增长、碳排放变化、产业结构变化、能源结构变化等规律,对于中国应对全球气候变化、实现碳减排目标有着重要的借鉴性意义。

关键词: 碳排放强度, 全球化, 影响因素, 变系数, 面板模型

Abstract:

China’s carbon emission reduction is an essential issue for the Chinese government and also of international concern. Since China has become the largest carbon emitter,analyzing the evolution of economic development and carbon emissions of developed countries as well as carrying out detailed analyses on China’s carbon emission and carbon intensity changes will be an essential reference for China's carbon reduction process. Through detailed analysis of trends in carbon emissions and carbon intensities in different countries,we applied the variable coefficient panel model to assess key factors including the industrial structure,energy structure,urbanization rate and economic development. Based on the above-mentioned results,we compared differences in carbon emissions and carbon intensities between China and major countries in the world with different influence of basic impact factors taken into consideration. Overall,the United States,Japan,United Kingdom,France,Italy and Canada have reached a carbon emission peak to varying degrees. In contrast to carbon intensities in different countries,China’s intensity is quantified as 1.24kg/USD,which is still much higher than the global average. Overall,different factors have different degrees of influence on countries,but the urbanization rate and renewable energy ratio contribute significantly to carbon emission reduction when compared with others. Comparing the economic growth,carbon emissions,industrial structure and energy structure of different countries will lay a solid foundation for China and provide an essential support for the Chinese government to deal with global climate change and achieve carbon emission reduction targets at a macro scale.

Key words: carbon intensity, globalization, impact factor, variable coefficient, panel model

韩梦瑶, 刘卫东, 唐志鹏, 夏炎. 世界主要国家碳排放影响因素分析——基于变系数面板模型[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(12): 2420-2429.

Mengyao HAN, Weidong LIU, Zhipeng TANG, Yan XIA. Carbon emission impact factor analysis of major countries based on varying coefficient panel modeling[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(12): 2420-2429.

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	年均排放量≥6亿t	年均排放量<6亿t
已出现拐点	美国、日本	英国、法国、意大利、加拿大
未出现拐点	中国、印度	澳大利亚、韩国

碳排放指标国家分类		GDP系数	T值	IND系数	T值	POP系数	T值	REW系数	T值
1	美国	145.10	6.06	-1.80E+04	-0.45	-32.72E+04	-2.37	-10.06E+04	-2.77
	日本	42.42	9.42	-1.31E+04	-2.64	-1.68E+04	-5.23	-1.08E+04	-0.99
2	法国	6.69	2.11	-1.73E+04	-2.56	-3.55E+04	-3.03	-0.58E+04	-1.94
	英国	3.97	2.68	0.61E+04	2.64	1.01E+04	1.49	-3.02E+04	-7.91
	意大利	5.36	0.04	-14.43E+04	-0.67	-67.30E+04	-0.93	13.33E+04	0.93
	加拿大	14.47	2.38	0.74E+04	2.17	-3.81E+04	-1.70	-0.06E+04	-0.05
3	中国	2 116.51	18.22	16.50E+04	4.32	-15.61E+04	-4.92	-12.55E+04	-4.19
	印度	729.40	2.84	-1.00E+04	-2.48	-1.97E+04	-0.54	-4.31E+04	-5.04
4	澳大利亚	13.12	5.11	0.34E+04	2.95	-3.84E+04	-2.88	0.03E+04	0.20
	韩国	35.06	9.69	0.55E+04	1.65	-4.98E+04	-4.82	-1.66E+04	-1.17