资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 2420-2429.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.12.20
• • 上一篇
韩梦瑶1,2(), 刘卫东1,2(
), 唐志鹏1,2, 夏炎3
收稿日期:
2017-09-07
修回日期:
2017-11-14
出版日期:
2017-12-31
发布日期:
2017-12-31
作者简介:
作者简介:韩梦瑶,女,河北沧州人,助理研究员,主要研究方向为经济地理与区域发展。E-mail:
基金资助:
Mengyao HAN1,2, Weidong LIU1,2(), Zhipeng TANG1,2, Yan XIA3
Received:
2017-09-07
Revised:
2017-11-14
Online:
2017-12-31
Published:
2017-12-31
摘要:
碳减排不仅是中国政府面临的重要问题,同时是国际社会逐渐关注的热点话题。中国作为最大的温室气体排放国,借鉴发达国家经济发展及碳排放演变过程,有助于为自身碳减排打下坚实的基础。本文首先对比了不同国家碳排放及碳强度的变化趋势,然后利用变系数面板模型,从经济发展、产业结构、城镇化率、能源结构着手探究碳排放和碳强度的关键影响因素的作用规律,分析中国与世界主要国家碳排放的影响因素的异同。整体来看,美国、日本、英国、法国、意大利、加拿大等国家均已出现不同程度的碳排放总量拐点。对比2014年不同国家碳排放强度,中国碳排放强度为1.24kg/美元,远高于全球平均水平。不同影响因素对于不同国家碳排放影响程度各不相同,其中城市化率、可再生能源占比等对于碳排放降低均有着显著的作用。综合分析结果,从全球的角度对比不同国家经济增长、碳排放变化、产业结构变化、能源结构变化等规律,对于中国应对全球气候变化、实现碳减排目标有着重要的借鉴性意义。
韩梦瑶, 刘卫东, 唐志鹏, 夏炎. 世界主要国家碳排放影响因素分析——基于变系数面板模型[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(12): 2420-2429.
Mengyao HAN, Weidong LIU, Zhipeng TANG, Yan XIA. Carbon emission impact factor analysis of major countries based on varying coefficient panel modeling[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(12): 2420-2429.
表2
固定效应变系数面板模型的估计结果"
碳排放指标国家分类 | GDP系数 | T值 | IND系数 | T值 | POP系数 | T值 | REW系数 | T值 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 美国 | 145.10 | 6.06 | -1.80E+04 | -0.45 | -32.72E+04 | -2.37 | -10.06E+04 | -2.77 |
日本 | 42.42 | 9.42 | -1.31E+04 | -2.64 | -1.68E+04 | -5.23 | -1.08E+04 | -0.99 | |
2 | 法国 | 6.69 | 2.11 | -1.73E+04 | -2.56 | -3.55E+04 | -3.03 | -0.58E+04 | -1.94 |
英国 | 3.97 | 2.68 | 0.61E+04 | 2.64 | 1.01E+04 | 1.49 | -3.02E+04 | -7.91 | |
意大利 | 5.36 | 0.04 | -14.43E+04 | -0.67 | -67.30E+04 | -0.93 | 13.33E+04 | 0.93 | |
加拿大 | 14.47 | 2.38 | 0.74E+04 | 2.17 | -3.81E+04 | -1.70 | -0.06E+04 | -0.05 | |
3 | 中国 | 2 116.51 | 18.22 | 16.50E+04 | 4.32 | -15.61E+04 | -4.92 | -12.55E+04 | -4.19 |
印度 | 729.40 | 2.84 | -1.00E+04 | -2.48 | -1.97E+04 | -0.54 | -4.31E+04 | -5.04 | |
4 | 澳大利亚 | 13.12 | 5.11 | 0.34E+04 | 2.95 | -3.84E+04 | -2.88 | 0.03E+04 | 0.20 |
韩国 | 35.06 | 9.69 | 0.55E+04 | 1.65 | -4.98E+04 | -4.82 | -1.66E+04 | -1.17 |
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