资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 2399-2407.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.12.18

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低碳发展背景下中国温室气体排放变化及其对全球减排的贡献

刘洋1,2(), 郑景云1,2, 葛全胜1,2, 王芳1()   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京100049
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-07 修回日期:2017-10-05 出版日期:2017-12-31 发布日期:2017-12-31
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:刘洋,男,内蒙古呼和浩特人,博士生,主要研究方向为气候变化。E-mail:liuy.14b@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    中华人民共和国科学技术部国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602704;2016YFA0602800);中华人民共和国科学技术部改革发展专项“巴黎会议后应对气候变化急迫重大问题研究”

China’s greenhouse gas emissions in low-carbon planning and contribution to global reductions

Yang LIU1,2(), Jingyun ZHENG1,2, Quansheng GE1,2, Fang WANG1()   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
  • Received:2017-09-07 Revised:2017-10-05 Online:2017-12-31 Published:2017-12-31

摘要:

为明确中国温室气体峰值排放变化及其对全球减排的促进关系,本文通过从行业终端出发的温室气体排放模型,利用联合国相关组织、世界银行、国际能源署等机构的数据,结合中国能源战略规划目标设置了由弱到强的三种减排政策支持力度,分析了当前至2060年的中国温室气体排放特征与达峰时间和累积排放量变化,以及中国对全球温室气体减排的贡献。主要结论有:①中国在应对气候变化的既有能源政策支持下,将于2030年达到温室气体排放峰值(144.28±7.48)亿t CO2eq,2020—2060年累计排放量将比无减缓政策情景减少约2243.82亿t CO2eq;②加快能源目标的实现有助于尽早达峰,如中国在2025年达成2030年能源规划目标,温室气体排放达峰时间将提前到2027年,其峰值(133.88±6.03)亿t CO2eq,2020—2060年累计排放量较2030年达峰的情景减少约517.46亿t CO2eq,尽早达峰可使排放总量显著下降;③在各国国家自主决定贡献(INDCs)承诺顺利实现的情况下,如果中国达峰时间从2030年提前至2027年,不太可能改变全球排放达峰的时间(2031年),但可使全球排放峰值从534.89亿t CO2eq下降为523.54亿t CO2eq左右,2031—2060年的全球排放量下降速率从4.26亿t CO2eq/a提高到4.38亿t CO2eq/a。

关键词: 温室气体排放, 政策规划, 排放峰值, 全球减排, 低碳发展, 情景分析, 中国

Abstract:

Based on a final energy sector-based emission model and data from the United Nations,World Bank,International Energy Agency and plans released by the Chinese government,three scenarios were designed according to the strength of policies to address climate change in China and project greenhouse gases (GHG)emissions until 2060. We analyzed the time of the GHG emission peak and cumulative emissions for China,as well as their relationships with global GHG emission variation. We found that China will reach a GHG emission peak in 2030 (14.428±0.748×109 tCO2eq)when all existing energy policies fully implemented,and the reduction in cumulative emissions from 2020 to 2060 is 224.382×109 tCO2eq compared to scenarios without mitigation. Accelerating energy target achievement is helpful in peaking earlier. For example,when China’s energy targets for 2030 are achieved five years earlier in 2025,the emission peak only moves three years earlier in 2027 (13.388±0.603×109 tCO2eq),and cumulative emissions from 2020 to 2060 falls by 51.746×109 tCO2eq compared with the scenario peaking at 2030. Peaking earlier is significant to total cumulative emission reduction. If all countries accomplish their INDCs,three years ahead of China’s peak of 2030 to 2027 is unlikely to change the time of the global peak in 2031. However,the global peak declines from 53.489×109 tCO2eq to 52.354×109 tCO2eq,and promotes declining emission trends from 426×106 tCO2eq/year to 438 ×106 tCO2eq/year from 2031 to 2060.

Key words: GHG emission, policy planning, emission peak, global emission reduction, low-carbon development, scenario analysis, China