中国居民生活碳排放增长路径研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.12.17

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着居民消费水平提高,居民生活部门成为中国第二大排放主体,居民生活碳排放问题成为国内外的研究热点。本文结合IPAT扩展模型和情景分析方法对中国整体、城镇、农村三个层面居民生活碳排放增长路径进行情景预测,探究中国居民生活碳排放达峰时间及达峰数值。研究结果表明：基准情景和高碳情景下,到2050年,中国整体、城镇、农村居民生活碳排放总量均难实现达峰;低碳情景下,中国整体、城镇、农村居民生活碳排放总量达峰时间分别是2046年,2045年和2046年,碳排放峰值分别为73亿t、56亿t和17亿t;强化情景下,中国整体、城镇、农村居民生活碳排放总量达峰时间均在2040年,碳排放峰值分别为63亿t、47亿t和16亿t。中国居民生活碳排放峰值研究是中国能否实现减排目标的基础之一。基于此,提出中国居民生活部门专门性减排举措,如提高居民人口素质、提升居民绿色理念等有助于中国整体实现2030峰值目标。

关键词: 居民生活碳排放, 城镇, 农村, 峰值, IPAT模型, 情景分析, 中国

Abstract:

CO₂ emissions from households increase with improved living standards and a growing population. Analysis of assessments and predictions for household CO₂ emissions is significant to provide effective low-carbon measures for governments. This work explored the peak value of household CO₂ emissions in urban areas,rural areas and the whole China based on IPAT modeling and scenario analysis. From the perspective of peak prediction,we found that household CO₂ emissions will not achieve peak value before 2050 based on the Baseline Scenario and High-carbon Scenario both in China,urban areas and rural areas. Based on the Low-carbon Scenario,peak value time of household CO₂ emissions in China,urban areas and rural areas will be achieved in 2046,2045 and 2046,respectively;the peak value will be 7.3 billion t CO₂,5.6 billion t CO₂ and 1.7 billion t CO₂,respectively. Based on the Enhanced Low-carbon Scenario,the peak value time of household CO₂ emissions in China,urban areas and rural areas all will be achieved in 2040;the peak value will be 6.3 billion t CO₂,4.7 billion t CO₂ and 1.6 billion t CO₂,respectively. Based on the results of the peak value of household CO₂ emissions,low-carbon suggestions,such as to encourage multi-generation members living together,to enhance people’s awareness on energy saving and to master the green development plan and low-carbon construction plan,should be provided. Only by considering the current response and mitigation policies to adapt to climate change,special policies and measures needed to be made in the household sector,the peak value of household CO₂ emissions will be achieved based on Low-carbon Scenario and Enhanced the Low-carbon Scenario in China. The results also gave the data support for achieving 40% ~ 45% carbon reduction targets in 2020 and peak value targets around 2030.

Key words: household CO₂ emissions, urban areas, rural areas, peak value, IPAT Model, scenario analysis, China

曲建升, 刘莉娜, 曾静静, 李恒吉. 中国居民生活碳排放增长路径研究[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(12): 2389-2398.

Jiansheng QU, Lina LIU, Jingjing ZENG, Hengji LI. A study on growth path for China's household CO₂ emissions[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(12): 2389-2398.

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情景设置	情景描述
基准情景	主要以中国近年来人口规模、城镇化率、人均收入以及排放强度的变化规律为依据,依照中国努力实现国家提出的“两个一百年”奋斗目标,在现有国家应对气候变化政策下,不提出居民生活部门专门性减排举措。
高碳情景	在基准情景基础上,对低碳减排政策考虑欠佳,更加注重居民生活水平提升和居民生活质量提高。
低碳情景	针对基准情景和高碳情景,低碳情景不仅考虑目前现有低碳减排政策,还提出针对性的居民生活部门专门性减排政策。该情景下,一方面通过鼓励政策促进生产部门生产更多低碳产品,实现低碳生产、低碳经济;另一方面通过技术水平提高各种高碳产品向低碳转化,实现低碳消费、低碳交易。
强化情景	该情景综合考虑各控制变量发展态势,在提升中国居民生活水平和消费水平的同时,更加重视居民生活绿色消费理念。不仅在政策、技术方面提出居民生活部门专门性减排措施,还在教育层面上提升中国人口素质,从理念上引导居民向低碳生活方式和低碳消费模式转变。

情景设置	年份	人口总量 /亿人	城镇化率 /%	城镇人均收入增长率 /%	城镇排放强度下降率/%	农村人均收入增长率/%	农村排放强度下降率/%
基准情景	2020	14.10	61.5	8.0	3.2	11.3	2.8
	2030	14.55	68.5	6.0	3.1	8.3	2.7
	2050	14.65	74.0	3.0	2.9	3.8	2.5
高碳情景	2020	14.10	62.0	7.7	3.1	12.0	2.5
	2030	14.60	70.0	5.5	3.0	9.5	2.4
	2050	14.85	76.5	3.0	2.9	4.5	2.2
低碳情景	2020	14.08	61.0	7.2	3.2	10.5	3.1
	2030	14.50	67.0	5.0	3.1	7.5	3.0
	2050	14.45	71.5	2.5	2.8	3.5	2.8
强化情景	2020	14.08	60.5	7.0	3.3	10.0	3.4
	2030	14.45	65.0	4.5	3.2	6.5	3.2
	2050	14.30	69.0	2.0	3.0	3.0	2.9