资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 2389-2398.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.12.17

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中国居民生活碳排放增长路径研究

曲建升1,2(), 刘莉娜1,2(), 曾静静1,2, 李恒吉1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院兰州文献情报中心, 兰州 730000
    2. 兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-07 修回日期:2017-11-20 出版日期:2017-12-31 发布日期:2017-12-31
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:曲建升,男,山东莱阳人,博士,研究员,博士生导师,研究方向为全球环境战略与气候变化研究。E-mail:jsqu@lzb.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    中华人民共和国科学技术部国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602803);国家自然科学基金项目(41371537)

A study on growth path for China's household CO2 emissions

Jiansheng QU1,2(), Lina LIU1,2(), Jingjing ZENG1,2, Hengji LI1,2   

  1. 1. Lanzhou Information Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China
    2. College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China
  • Received:2017-09-07 Revised:2017-11-20 Online:2017-12-31 Published:2017-12-31

摘要:

随着居民消费水平提高,居民生活部门成为中国第二大排放主体,居民生活碳排放问题成为国内外的研究热点。本文结合IPAT扩展模型和情景分析方法对中国整体、城镇、农村三个层面居民生活碳排放增长路径进行情景预测,探究中国居民生活碳排放达峰时间及达峰数值。研究结果表明:基准情景和高碳情景下,到2050年,中国整体、城镇、农村居民生活碳排放总量均难实现达峰;低碳情景下,中国整体、城镇、农村居民生活碳排放总量达峰时间分别是2046年,2045年和2046年,碳排放峰值分别为73亿t、56亿t和17亿t;强化情景下,中国整体、城镇、农村居民生活碳排放总量达峰时间均在2040年,碳排放峰值分别为63亿t、47亿t和16亿t。中国居民生活碳排放峰值研究是中国能否实现减排目标的基础之一。基于此,提出中国居民生活部门专门性减排举措,如提高居民人口素质、提升居民绿色理念等有助于中国整体实现2030峰值目标。

关键词: 居民生活碳排放, 城镇, 农村, 峰值, IPAT模型, 情景分析, 中国

Abstract:

CO2 emissions from households increase with improved living standards and a growing population. Analysis of assessments and predictions for household CO2 emissions is significant to provide effective low-carbon measures for governments. This work explored the peak value of household CO2 emissions in urban areas,rural areas and the whole China based on IPAT modeling and scenario analysis. From the perspective of peak prediction,we found that household CO2 emissions will not achieve peak value before 2050 based on the Baseline Scenario and High-carbon Scenario both in China,urban areas and rural areas. Based on the Low-carbon Scenario,peak value time of household CO2 emissions in China,urban areas and rural areas will be achieved in 2046,2045 and 2046,respectively;the peak value will be 7.3 billion t CO2,5.6 billion t CO2 and 1.7 billion t CO2,respectively. Based on the Enhanced Low-carbon Scenario,the peak value time of household CO2 emissions in China,urban areas and rural areas all will be achieved in 2040;the peak value will be 6.3 billion t CO2,4.7 billion t CO2 and 1.6 billion t CO2,respectively. Based on the results of the peak value of household CO2 emissions,low-carbon suggestions,such as to encourage multi-generation members living together,to enhance people’s awareness on energy saving and to master the green development plan and low-carbon construction plan,should be provided. Only by considering the current response and mitigation policies to adapt to climate change,special policies and measures needed to be made in the household sector,the peak value of household CO2 emissions will be achieved based on Low-carbon Scenario and Enhanced the Low-carbon Scenario in China. The results also gave the data support for achieving 40% ~ 45% carbon reduction targets in 2020 and peak value targets around 2030.

Key words: household CO2 emissions, urban areas, rural areas, peak value, IPAT Model, scenario analysis, China