资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 2368-2376.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.12.15

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中国电力行业碳减排相关政策评价

刘强1(), 田川1, 郑晓奇1,2, 陈怡1   

  1. 1. 国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京100038
    2. 中国人民大学环境学院,北京 100872
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-10 修回日期:2017-11-05 出版日期:2017-12-31 发布日期:2017-12-31
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:刘强,男,山西忻州人,博士,副研究员,主要研究方向为气候变化及能源政策。E-mail:liuqiang@ncsc.org.cn

  • 基金资助:
    中华人民共和国科学技术部国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602800);国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心研究项目“中国深度低碳发展转型路径“

Evaluation of CO2 emission reduction policies in China's power sector

Qiang LIU1(), Chuan TIAN1, Xiaoqi ZHENG1,2, Yi CHEN1   

  1. 1. National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation,Beijing 100038,China
    2. School of Environment & Natural Resources of Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;
  • Received:2017-08-10 Revised:2017-11-05 Online:2017-12-31 Published:2017-12-31

摘要:

中国电力行业发展水平迈上新台阶,成果显著。随着碳排放目标约束的增强,中国政府将会针对电力行业出台更多政策和措施,科学合理地评价这些政策和措施意义重大。本文基于Vensim技术平台构建能源政策模拟模型,对电力行业碳减排设置了三种情景:即参考、低碳和强化低碳情景,并对其进行分析,评估了电力行业关键指标变化、不同政策的减排贡献及减排成本。研究发现,对电力行业来说,有多项政策可控制碳排放,如果政策组合得当,能推动电力行业碳排放早日达峰,并将碳排放水平控制在较低水平,同时还能带来显著的经济效益和社会效益。基于研究结果,本文提出了推动电力行业低碳发展的政策建议:一是完善体制机制,推动电力结构不断优化;二是充分利用市场手段,实现电力行业碳排放控制;三是强化科技支撑,加快相关技术研发和推广。

关键词: 电力行业, 碳减排, 能源政策模拟模型, 情景分析, 政策评价, 政策建议, 中国

Abstract:

The power sector in China has undergone significant development with remarkable achievements. Along with stronger carbon emission constrains,the Chinese government will launch more low-carbon policies and measures across the power sector,which makes it important to conduct a scientific evaluation of these policies and measures. Here we built a system dynamics model termed the Energy Policy Solution model,based on Vensim software and present a comprehensive analysis under Reference,Low-Carbon and Enhanced Low-Carbon scenarios. The key indicators of the power sector,CO2 abatement contribution and abatement costs of different policies are reviewed and evaluated. We found that many policies make a great contribution to CO2 emission control in the power sector,and if these policies can be combined appropriately,an earlier peak in CO2 emission in the power sector can be expected at a relatively lower level with significant economic and social benefits. Suggestions include improving the regulatory system and related mechanisms to drive the continuous optimization of power generation structure;making full use of market-based measures to control CO2 emissions in the power sector effectively;and providing necessary support to speed up research,development and application of relevant technologies.

Key words: power sector, CO2 emission reduction, energy policy solution model, scenario analysis, policy evaluation, policy suggestion, China