关键词: 水泥生产, 碳排放强度, 演变趋势, 自下而上方法, 节能减排成本曲线, 技术普及趋势曲线, 减排情景分析

Abstract:

To tackle climate change,China has to curtail CO₂ emissions from high-emission industries. An outlook of Chinese cement industry’s CO₂ emission intensity would facilitate achieving national CO₂ emission reduction targets. The cement industry is one of the basic industries of a country. Cement is the primary component of concrete and extensively used in construction activities. From 1981 to 2015,China became the biggest cement producer in the world since the cement consumption in China has increased from 82.08 to 2348 million tons. As China’s future urbanization requires cement,the Chinese cement industry is confronting an ambitious reduction target. Here we employed the conservation supply curve and the technology penetration curve to estimate the cost and penetration trend of each energy conservation and carbon reduction technology,based on which we developed three scenarios to simulate future trends in CO₂ emission intensity of the Chinese cement industry. The results indicate that,up to 2050,the CO₂ emission intensity of the Chinese cement industry under basic,cost-effective,and technological scenarios will be 491,431,and 342kg CO₂/ton cement,respectively. Compared to the target set in IEA,only the technological scenario would ensure this target,with a gap of 11 kg CO₂/ton cement under the cost-effective scenario. From scenario analysis we conclude that the Chinese cement industry and related administrative departments should take action （such as,administrative regulation,energy tax,carbon tax）to further promote energy conservation and carbon reduction technologies and mitigate CO₂ emission intensity of different processes. We also suggest several specific energy conservation and carbon reduction technologies to significantly contribute to CO₂ emission reduction.

Key words: cement production, CO₂ emissions, energy conservation supply curve, technology penetration curve, CO₂ emission reduction scenario analysis