基于环境生产技术效率的中国2030年区域减排目标路径研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.12.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目前,中国为进一步强化应对气候变化的行动安排,提出了到2030年,单位国内生产总值CO₂排放比2005年下降60%~65%的减排目标。由于不同地区的技术水平、经济发展阶段不同,造成各行业的能源使用效率、节能潜力也存在差异,等量的碳减排所对应的技术效率也大相径庭。因此,国家分配给各地区、各行业的差异化减排目标将直接影响各地区的产业结构以及相关的能源环境政策。在此背景下,本文把网络DEA模型与投入产出技术相结合,创新地构建了ZSG-网络DEA模型,刻画了在2030碳减排目标既定的约束下,实现各地区与各行业环境生产技术效率最大化的减排路径。结果表明,基于环境生产技术效率的视角,不同地区、不同行业实现2030年的减排目标的路径差异非常明显。其中,中部地区、北部沿海以及西北地区的碳排放量呈现出自2010年有较大幅度增长,2020年后保持稳定增长的趋势;而东部沿海地区在2005—2030年间的碳排放增长趋势较为缓慢,但其碳排放占全国总排放比例降幅最大,为8%。在行业减排贡献上,采矿业、非金属矿物制品业等高耗能行业面临的减排形势更为严峻,其碳强度下降水平应远超过INDC的65%的目标。总体而言,INDC目标对于中国各地区碳强度下降有积极作用。

关键词: 减排路径, 投入产出技术, 网络DEA, 环境生产技术效率, 中国

Abstract:

China has enhanced its actions on climate change,including the intention to lower 2030 carbon intensity by 60%~65% from 2005 levels. One the one hand,we should admit that the corresponding technical efficiency is dramatically different when completing the same reduction rate of carbon emissions in different regions given the diversity in regional energy conservation foundation and economic development. On the other hand,the energy efficiency and energy saving potential is also different across sectoral levels. The CO₂ emission reduction target for different regions will directly affect regional industrial structure adjustment and the strategy of different energy production and consumption. Therefore,it is worthwhile to build the scientific distribution mechanism for each region and sector under a 2030 emission reduction target. In order to answer the above questions we combined the principle of input-output table with ZSG-DEA modeling to analyze the pathway to Chinese regional emission reduction in 2030. We found that different sectors and regions have their own emission reduction pathways under the 2030 national carbon emissions reduction targets. For northern and eastern coasts and central regions,the emission reduction targets in 2030 will be stricter than ever. Furthermore,the reduction target of several energy-intensive sectors,such as the mining and non-metallic mineral products industries,will exceed national average standards,which means these sectors need to make more efforts to shift towards low carbon development. Overall,the INDC target has a positive effect on the decrease in carbon intensity for each region in China.

Key words: emission reduction pathway, input-output technique, network-DEA, efficiency of environmental production technology, China

姚晔, 夏炎, 范英, 蒋茂荣. 基于环境生产技术效率的中国2030年区域减排目标路径研究[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(12): 2335-2343.

Ye YAO, Yan XIA, Ying FAN, Maorong JIANG. The pathway of Chinese regional carbon emission in 2030： a research based on ZSG environmental production technology efficiency[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(12): 2335-2343.

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发展方式	情景	目标设定/%		时期 /年	GDP 增长率%	就业增长率%	资本存量增长率/%
发展方式	情景	2020年		时期 /年	GDP 增长率%	就业增长率%	2030年
中速发展(基本情形)	情景1	45	60	2016—2020	6.7	0	8.4
	情景2	45	65	2021—2025	6.4	0	7.8
				2026—2030	5.9	-0.3	7.0
低速发展(风险情形)	情景3	45	60	2016—2020	5.7	0	6.9
	情景4	45	65	2021—2025	5.1	0	6.1
				2026—2030	4.3	-0.3	4.9
高速发展(增长情形)	情景5	45	60	2016—2020	7.2	0	7.5
	情景6	45	65	2021—2025	6.8	0	6.8
				2026—2030	6.0	-0.3	5.5

	部门	减排贡献/%
北部沿海	金属矿物制品业	74.9
	金属冶炼及压延	74.3
	交通运输及仓储	73.9
	批发、零售、住宿与餐饮业	74.4
东部沿海	农林牧渔业	71.2
	采矿业	71.3
	轻工业	69.3
	非金属矿物制品	70.4
	金属冶炼及压延	69.6
	装备制造业	70.1
	电力、热力、燃气和水供应业	69.8
	建筑业	71.0
中部地区	轻工业	71.5
	其他制造业	79.0
	电力、热力、燃气和水供应业	70.8
	交通运输及仓储	70.3
	批发、零售、住宿与餐饮业	72.0
北方直辖市	其他制造业	68.6

年份	2005	2010	2015	2020	2025	2030
北方直辖市	1.64	1.40	1.46	1.32	1.24	1.10
北部沿海	3.14	2.73	2.16	1.95	1.83	1.01
东北地区	2.93	2.64	2.35	2.11	1.98	1.83
东部沿海	1.79	1.52	1.19	1.07	1.01	0.42
南部沿海	1.36	1.39	0.88	0.79	0.75	0.74
中部地区	3.05	2.52	1.63	1.47	1.38	1.05
西南地区	2.99	2.43	1.29	1.17	1.09	2.13
西北地区	3.72	2.99	3.30	2.97	2.79	2.55