主要新能源发电替代减排的研究综述

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.12.11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新能源替代传统化石能源对实现2030年碳排放达峰目标具有重要作用。新能源发电替代减排是碳减排最为重要的形式之一,积极开展相关领域的研究意义重大。本文在对国内外有关新能源发电替代减排的研究文献进行搜集、整理和分析总结的基础上,对已有研究成果从新能源资源潜力评估、发电替代减排量测算、产业全生命周期碳排放计算和减排的成本效益等四个方面进行了整理。综述发现已有的新能源发电减排量测算方法各有利弊,新能源产业自身碳排放核算缺乏统一的界定范围,而且新能源的开发成本和效益也缺乏明确的核算标准。最后,本文从如何对新能源的技术进步率进行科学预测、系统地建立新能源发展与减排的效益评估体系、减排目标下新能源产业发展路径的描述等研究方向进行了展望。

关键词: 新能源发电, 替代减排, 成本效益分析, 综述

Abstract:

To achieve the 2030 carbon emissions peak target,it is important to replace fossil fuels with new energy sources. Using new energy generation to reduce carbon emissions is one of the most important forms. It is particularly important to carry out research in related fields. On the basis of collecting and summarizing research into new energy generation reducing carbon emissions in China and abroad,we combed the literature from the aspects of new energy resource potential assessment,emission replacement calculation,life cycle carbon emission calculation and cost-benefit analysis. We found that current studies have the following issues：（1）the calculating methods of new energy generation reducing carbon emissions have advantages and disadvantages;（2）carbon emission accounting of new energy industry itself lacks a uniform definition of calculating scope;（3）costs and benefits of new energy development also lack clear accounting standards. Finally,future research directions are discussed regarding scientific prediction of new energies’ technological progress rate,establishing benefit evaluation systems of new energy development and emission reduction,and describing the development path of new energy industry under emission reduction targets.

Key words: new energy power generation, emission reduction, cost-benefit analyze, review

牟初夫, 王礼茂, 屈秋实, 方叶兵, 张宏. 主要新能源发电替代减排的研究综述[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(12): 2323-2334.

Chufu MOU, Limao WANG, Qiushi QU, Yebing FANG, Hong ZHANG. Review of emission reduction research on major new energy generation[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(12): 2323-2334.

图/表 3

表1

表2

表3

2005年中国区域电网单位供电平均CO2排放"

电网划分区域	覆盖省区市	CO₂排放 /（kg/(kW $?$ h)）
华北区域	北京、天津、河北、山西、山东、内蒙古西部地区	1.246
东北区域	辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、内蒙古东部地区	1.096
华东区域	上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建	0.928
华中区域	河南、湖北、湖南、江西、四川、重庆	0.801
西北区域	陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆	0.977
南方区域	广东、广西、云南、贵州	0.714
海南	海南	0.917

表3

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类型	实物总蕴藏量 /亿t	总蕴藏潜力量 /亿tec	理论可获得量 /亿tec	所占比例 /%
秸秆及农业加工剩余物	7.28	3.58	1.79	38.90
畜禽粪便	39.26	18.80	1.02	22.14
薪柴和林木生物质能	21.75	12.42	1.66	36.01
城市垃圾	1.55	0.22	0.09	1.93
城市废水	482.4	0.09	0.05	1.02
合计		35.11	4.60	100.00

能源种类	单位热值含碳量 /（kg/GJ）	缺省CO₂ 排放因子 /（kg/GJ）	1kg燃料燃烧产生的CO₂排放 /kg
原油	20.08	73.30	3.65
汽油	18.90	70.00	3.70
柴油	20.20	74.10	3.67
焦炭	29.42	107.00	3.64
褐煤	28.07	101.00	3.60
无烟煤	27.34	98.30	3.60
天然气	15.32	56.10	3.66