国际能源价格波动与中国碳税政策的协同模拟分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.12.10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

国际能源价格波动和碳税政策都会对能源成本产生直接作用,从而对能源安全状况和减排效果产生影响。现有研究往往基于外部条件不变的假设分别探讨两者的影响效应。然而,国际能源价格波动在现实中已成为常态,实施碳税可能无法实现预期减排效果,也可能影响能源安全。因此,评估国际能源价格波动与碳税政策的交互影响效应,有助于协调能源安全与碳减排的冲突问题。本研究构建了中国“产业-能源-碳排放”CGE模型,探讨了国际化石能源价格波动和碳税政策对实现2030年碳减排60%~65%目标的交互影响效应,研究结果显示：无论国际化石能源价格上升还是下降,碳税政策都能实现减排60%以上的目标;而当国际化石能源价格下降,碳税政策无法缓解能源对外依存度的提高,能源安全存在隐患。

关键词: 能源价格, 碳税政策, 减排目标, 交互影响效应, CGE模型, 国际, 中国

Abstract:

Energy security and carbon emission mitigation play critical roles in guaranteeing sustainable development. International energy price volatility （IEPV）and carbon tax policy （CTP）have direct impacts on energy costs,and then create effects on energy security and carbon reduction. Previous studies have mostly focused on IEPV or CTP,respectively,based on the assumption that external conditions are invariable. In fact,however,IEPV has become a normal state,which may cause the result that CTP may not achieve emission reduction goals. Therefore,evaluating interactive effects between IEPV and CTP contributes insights to deal with conflict between energy security and carbon reduction. Here,we constructed a China CGE model with industry-energy-carbon emission modules applied to explore interactive effects on the 2030 target of carbon reduction 60%~65% （called the 2030 target）,which were created by international fossil energy price volatility and CTP. We found that under the condition without any changes it was predicted that China’s energy security would be improved,while carbon emission would reduce by only 20.11%~22.23% and thus not meet the 2030 target. CTP implementation of 30 CNY per ton CO₂ could achieve the 2030 target with mitigation of 66.48%~68.70%,through reducing coal consumption significantly. An increase in international fossil energy price could mitigate the carbon emission by 53.11%~54.33%,while the growth rate of gross domestic products （GDP）would decline. A decrease in international fossil energy price would increase energy dependence and create an impact on China’s energy security situation,and China would still fail in the 2030 target. In both scenarios of an increase and decrease in international fossil energy prices,CTP could still achieve the 2030 target with mitigation effects above 60%.

Key words: energy price, carbon tax policy, reduction goal, interactive effects, CGE model, international, China

钟帅, 沈镭, 赵建安, 孙艳芝, 武娜. 国际能源价格波动与中国碳税政策的协同模拟分析[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(12): 2310-2322.

Shuai ZHONG, Lei SHEN, Jian'an ZHAO, Yanzhi SUN, Na WU. Collaborative simulation analysis on international energy price volatility and China’s carbon tax policy[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(12): 2310-2322.

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	生产部门	要素部门	机构部门	投资	世界其它地区	总计
生产部门	中间投入*		机构消费*	固定资本形成*	出口*	总需求
要素部门	要素投入*				国外要素净收入**	要素总收入
机构部门	生产税*	要素收入分配**	机构转移收支**		国外对机构净转移**	机构总收入
储蓄			机构储蓄**		外资净流入**	总储蓄
世界其它地区	进口*					外汇总支出
总计	总供给	要素总支出	机构总支出	总投资	外汇总收入

	基准情景（BS）*	价格情景（PS）**		碳税情景（CS）	综合情景（BPCS）
	基准情景（BS）*	价格上升***		价格下降***	价格上升***	价格下降***
人口高速增长	BHS	BHPUS	BHPDS	BHCS	BHPUCS	BHPDCS
人口中速增长	BMS	BMPUS	BMPDS	BMCS	BMPUCS	BMPDCS
人口低速增长	BLS	BLPUS	BLPDS	BLCS	BLPUCS	BLPDCS

情景	年份	GDP /（亿元,不变价=2012年）	一次化石能源消费总量 /（万tec）	一次化石能源强度 /（万tec/亿元）	CO₂排放总量 /亿t	CO₂强度 /（t/万元,不变价=2012年）
BHS	2020	865 169	599 965	0.69	161.70	1.87
	2025	1 163 164	741 615	0.64	201.01	1.73
	2030	1 562 776	893 956	0.57	244.25	1.56
BMS	2020	865 501	598 125	0.69	161.27	1.86
	2025	1 163 732	735 545	0.63	199.56	1.71
	2030	1 563 415	881 165	0.56	241.15	1.54
BLS	2020	865 479	596 164	0.69	160.81	1.86
	2025	1 163 871	729 232	0.63	198.05	1.70
	2030	1 563 707	867 932	0.56	237.93	1.52

情景	年份	煤炭对外依存度	油气对外依存度	焦炭/成品油对外依存度
BHS	2020	0.07	0.46	0.03
	2025	0.08	0.44	0.02
	2030	0.09	0.43	0.02
BMS	2020	0.07	0.46	0.03
	2025	0.08	0.44	0.02
	2030	0.09	0.43	0.02
BLS	2020	0.07	0.46	0.03
	2025	0.08	0.43	0.02
	2030	0.09	0.43	0.01

情景	2005年碳排放量/亿t	2005年碳排放强度/（t/万元）	年份	CO₂强度/（t/万元, 不变价=2005年）	减排效果（相对2005年强度）/%	是否实现减排目标（2030年相对2005年强度,不变价=2005年）
BHS	50.60	2.70	2020	2.58	-4.47	否
			2025	2.39	-11.67
			2030	2.16	-20.11
BMS	50.60	2.70	2020	2.57	-4.76	否
			2025	2.37	-12.35
			2030	2.13	-21.16
BLS	50.60	2.70	2020	2.57	-5.03	否
			2025	2.35	-13.02
			2030	2.10	-22.23