资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 2310-2322.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.12.10

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国际能源价格波动与中国碳税政策的协同模拟分析

钟帅1,2,3(), 沈镭1,2(), 赵建安1,2, 孙艳芝1,2, 武娜1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
    3. 湖北师范大学资源枯竭城市转型与发展研究中心,黄石 435002
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-07 修回日期:2017-11-05 出版日期:2017-12-31 发布日期:2017-12-31
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:钟帅,男,海南文昌人,博士,助理研究员,主要研究方向为资源经济与政策。E-mail:zhongshuai@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    中华人民共和国科学技术部国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602802);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41501604;41501590);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41771566)

Collaborative simulation analysis on international energy price volatility and China’s carbon tax policy

Shuai ZHONG1,2,3(), Lei SHEN1,2(), Jian'an ZHAO1,2, Yanzhi SUN1,2, Na WU1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
    3. Transformation and Development Research Center of Resource-Exhausted Cities,Hubei Normal University,Huangshi 435002,China
  • Received:2017-09-07 Revised:2017-11-05 Online:2017-12-31 Published:2017-12-31

摘要:

国际能源价格波动和碳税政策都会对能源成本产生直接作用,从而对能源安全状况和减排效果产生影响。现有研究往往基于外部条件不变的假设分别探讨两者的影响效应。然而,国际能源价格波动在现实中已成为常态,实施碳税可能无法实现预期减排效果,也可能影响能源安全。因此,评估国际能源价格波动与碳税政策的交互影响效应,有助于协调能源安全与碳减排的冲突问题。本研究构建了中国“产业-能源-碳排放”CGE模型,探讨了国际化石能源价格波动和碳税政策对实现2030年碳减排60%~65%目标的交互影响效应,研究结果显示:无论国际化石能源价格上升还是下降,碳税政策都能实现减排60%以上的目标;而当国际化石能源价格下降,碳税政策无法缓解能源对外依存度的提高,能源安全存在隐患。

关键词: 能源价格, 碳税政策, 减排目标, 交互影响效应, CGE模型, 国际, 中国

Abstract:

Energy security and carbon emission mitigation play critical roles in guaranteeing sustainable development. International energy price volatility (IEPV)and carbon tax policy (CTP)have direct impacts on energy costs,and then create effects on energy security and carbon reduction. Previous studies have mostly focused on IEPV or CTP,respectively,based on the assumption that external conditions are invariable. In fact,however,IEPV has become a normal state,which may cause the result that CTP may not achieve emission reduction goals. Therefore,evaluating interactive effects between IEPV and CTP contributes insights to deal with conflict between energy security and carbon reduction. Here,we constructed a China CGE model with industry-energy-carbon emission modules applied to explore interactive effects on the 2030 target of carbon reduction 60%~65% (called the 2030 target),which were created by international fossil energy price volatility and CTP. We found that under the condition without any changes it was predicted that China’s energy security would be improved,while carbon emission would reduce by only 20.11%~22.23% and thus not meet the 2030 target. CTP implementation of 30 CNY per ton CO2 could achieve the 2030 target with mitigation of 66.48%~68.70%,through reducing coal consumption significantly. An increase in international fossil energy price could mitigate the carbon emission by 53.11%~54.33%,while the growth rate of gross domestic products (GDP)would decline. A decrease in international fossil energy price would increase energy dependence and create an impact on China’s energy security situation,and China would still fail in the 2030 target. In both scenarios of an increase and decrease in international fossil energy prices,CTP could still achieve the 2030 target with mitigation effects above 60%.

Key words: energy price, carbon tax policy, reduction goal, interactive effects, CGE model, international, China