资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 2299-2309.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.12.09

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中国产业结构变化对能源强度的影响

马晓微(), 石秀庆, 王颖慧, 廖华   

  1. 1. 北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京 100081
    2. 北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京 100081
    3. 能源经济与环境管理北京市重点实验室,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2017-02-10 修回日期:2017-10-05 出版日期:2017-12-31 发布日期:2017-12-31
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:马晓微,女,安徽萧县人,博士,副教授,研究方向为能源与环境政策。E-mail:maxiaowei@bit.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    中华人民共和国科学技术部国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602800);国家自然科学基金项目(71573015;71303019;71521002)

Impacts of industrial structural change on energy intensity in China

Xiaowei MA(), Xiuqing SHI, Yinghui WANG, Hua LIAO   

  1. 1. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China
    2. School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China
    3. Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management,Beijing 100081,China
  • Received:2017-02-10 Revised:2017-10-05 Online:2017-12-31 Published:2017-12-31

摘要:

改革开放以来,中国总能源强度呈现整体下降的趋势,分析影响总能源强度的因素,对促进节能减排有着至关重要的作用。本文基于结构性因素分解方法(SDA)将能源强度分解为结构效应和效率效应,从产业结构层次逐步深入到工业内部行业的结构层次,从各产业和工业分行业角度分别定量分析了引起中国总能源强度和工业能源强度下降的原因。结果表明:①目前中国总能源强度的下降主要是由于各产业能源效率的提高,产业结构在2013年之前起到了阻碍作用,在2013年之后起到了微弱正向促进作用;②从各产业对总能源强度的影响上看,工业、建筑业和第三产业的结构因素对总能源强度下降的负向影响程度大于第一产业结构因素的正向影响程度,但工业、建筑业和第三产业的效率因素对总能源强度下降起到了主要的推动作用;③中国工业能源强度的下降是由工业结构变化和工业各行业能源利用效率的提高共同推动的,工业各行业能源强度的下降是主要动力;④从工业各行业对工业能源强度的影响上看,工业行业结构效应和效率效应影响行业较为集中,重点高能耗行业的结构变化和效率变化对促进工业能源强度的下降起到了重要的作用;⑤工业发展速度较快行业的结构变化和效率变化对工业能源强度的影响作用越来越明显。针对得出的结论,提出了相关建议,为中国节能减排政策的制定提供理论支持。

关键词: SDA, 结构性因素分解方法, 产业结构, 能源强度, 影响分析, 中国

Abstract:

Since the reform and opening up, China’s total energy intensity has shown an overall downward trend. It will contribute to promote energy conservation and emission reduction if we determine the factors influencing total energy intensity. Here we decomposed energy intensity into structural effects and efficiency effects,and analyzed reasons causing the decline in China’s total energy intensity and industrial energy intensity from the angles of each industry and industrial sectors based on structural decomposition analysis(SDA). We found that the decrease in China’s energy intensity was mainly due to improvements in energy utilization efficiency of the three major industries. However,the change in industrial structure hindered the drop in total energy intensity before 2013 and played a weak positive role after 2013. From the impacts of four industries on total energy intensity,the structural factor of Industry,Construction and Tertiary Industry had a negative impact on total energy intensity,which was greater than the positive impact of the Primary Industry. While the efficiency factor of Industry,Construction and Tertiary Industry predominantly led to the fall of total energy intensity in China. The decline in industrial energy intensity was jointly driven by change in the internal structure of Industry and the improvement of industrial sectoral energy utilizing efficiency,among which the decrease in industrial sectoral energy intensity played a leading role. From impacts of industrial sectors on industrial energy intensity,the influence of the structural effect and efficiency effect of industrial sectors was focused on several sectors. Change in the structure and efficiency of key high energy-consumption industries played an important role in promoting the decrease in industrial energy intensity. The influence of structural and efficiency change in some industrial sectors on industrial energy intensity has become increasingly evident. These industrial sectors have a relatively rapid pace of development. Based on these findings,some suggestions are put forward to provide support for formulating energy-saving strategies.

Key words: SDA, factor decomposition, industrial structure, energy intensity, impact analysis, China