资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 2265-2274.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.12.06

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中国碳排放变化的驱动力效应分析

孙艳芝1,2(), 沈镭1,2(), 钟帅1,2, 刘立涛1,2, 武娜1,2, 李林朋3, 孔含笑4   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
    3. 庆元县住房和城乡建设局,庆元 323800
    4. 青岛国家高新技术产业开发区管理委员会,青岛 266114
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-07 修回日期:2017-11-05 出版日期:2017-12-31 发布日期:2017-12-31
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:孙艳芝,女,江苏徐州人,博士生,主要研究方向为资源经济与能源安全。E-mail:sunyz.15b@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    中华人民共和国科学技术部国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602802);国家自然科学基金项目(41771566;41501604;41401644)

Driving force analysis of carbon emission changes in China

Yanzhi SUN1,2(), Lei SHEN1,2(), Shuai ZHONG1,2, Litao LIU1,2, Na WU1,2, Linpeng LI3, Hanxiao KONG4   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
    3. Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of Qingyuan County,Qingyuan 323800,China
    4. QingdaoNational High-tech Industrial Development Zone,Qingdao 266114,China
  • Received:2017-09-07 Revised:2017-11-05 Online:2017-12-31 Published:2017-12-31

摘要:

碳减排作为经济转型发展中的重要环节,必须厘清导致碳排放变化的关键因素及其驱动效应和机理。本文基于投入产出(IOA)与结构分解(SDA)等分析方法,探讨了1997—2012年间中国全行业碳排放变化的驱动力效应。研究表明:①中国行业碳排放总量不断增加,从53.60亿t增加至158.20亿t,碳排放强度从2.00 t CO2/万元降至0.86 t CO2/万元;②影响碳排放变化的因素主要包括五个方面,技术进步有利于碳减排,规模效应(经济规模和人口规模)持续推动碳排放的增加,产业联系和经济结构对碳排放的影响导致其波动变化;③产业政策可分为宏观控制政策和产业自调整政策,这些政策环境的变化越来越有利于碳减排。2002年之前,中国宏观控制政策鼓励发展第二、三产业,使得经济与人口规模不断扩张,增加了碳排放;2002—2012年间,中国产业自调整政策对碳减排的影响越来越大,由于产业市场竞争不断加强,促进能源大范围流动与产业重组,大大提高了能源利用效率,使得产业联系与经济结构在中国碳减排中起到了重要作用,技术进步不再是唯一减少碳排放的因素,碳减排方式趋于多元化。

关键词: 行业碳排放, 碳减排, 投入产出, 结构分解, 驱动力, 产业政策, 中国

Abstract:

As an important part of economic development,it is essential for carbon emission reduction to clarify factors affecting carbon emission changes in China. Based on input-output analysis (IOA)and structural decomposition analysis (SDA),we demonstrate detailed insights into how diverse driving factors affect carbon emissions. The results indicate that the total carbon emission is increasing from 5.36 to 15.82 billion tons,and carbon emission intensity is reducing from 2.00 to 0.86 t CO2/10000 CNY. The driving factors of these carbon emission changes are decomposed into technology,sectoral connection,economic structure,gross economic scale and population. Technology effect always offsets the carbon emission increase. On the contrary,gross economic scale and population have significant positive effects on carbon emissions. It is noteworthy that sectoral connection effects abruptly change from negative to positive because of industrial policy. In China,industrial policies are mainly divided into macro-control policies and industrial self-adjustment policies. Research shows that policy evolution is conducive to carbon emission reduction:before 2002,macro control policies plays a major role in the change in carbon emissions,and the expansion of economic and population scales increase carbon emissions. Technological progress is the major driving force of carbon emission reduction in this period. from 2002 to 2012,industrial self-adjustment policy has the larger impact on carbon emission reduction. Owing to strengthening industry market competition,energy flow and industrial restructuring are promoted. Energy efficiency is improving,and industrial linkage and economic structure play a more important role in reducing carbon emissions. In the future,technological progress is no longer the only driving force in decreasing carbon emissions,and pathways to carbon emission reduction are diversified.

Key words: carbon emission, carbon emission reduction, input-output analysis (IOA), Structural decomposition analysis (SDA), driving factors, industrial policy, China