资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 2258-2264.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.12.05

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基于投入产出表的中国八大区域碳排放强度分析

尹伟华1(), 张亚雄1, 李继峰1, 徐丽萍2, 王玢2   

  1. 1.国家信息中心经济预测部,北京 100045
    2. 北京城市系统工程研究中心,北京 100089
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-07 修回日期:2017-11-05 出版日期:2017-12-31 发布日期:2017-12-31
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:尹伟华,男,安徽合肥人,博士,助理研究员,研究方向为能源经济、全球价值链分析,R&D效率评价。E-mail:yinwh@mx.cei.gov.cn

  • 基金资助:
    中华人民共和国科学技术部国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602800);北京市财政专项项目(PXM 2016_178215_000014);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573062)

Decomposition of carbon emission intensity in China's eight regions according to CMRIO

Weihua YIN1(), Yaxiong ZHANG1, Jifeng LI1, Liping XU2, Bin WANG2   

  1. 1. Economic Forecasting Department,State Information Center,Beijing 100045,China
    2. Beijing Research Center of Urban Systems Engineering,Beijing 100089,China
  • Received:2017-09-07 Revised:2017-11-05 Online:2017-12-31 Published:2017-12-31

摘要:

随着经济一体化程度不断加深,碳减排问题研究不能不考虑中国区域间经济关联。本文利用最新的区域间投入产出表和结构分解分析对2007—2012年中国区域碳排放强度进行了解析,据此判断中国各区域碳排放强度的变动趋势及影响因素。结果表明:①2007—2012年中国整体和八大区域的碳排放强度均出现了不同程度的下降趋势,其中,中部区域降幅最高,南部沿海区域降幅最低;②中国碳排放强度降幅度较大的主要集中在经济发展相对欠发达区域,而碳排放强度降幅较小的主要集中在经济发展相对发达区域,碳排放强度下降具有收敛性;③得益于节能技术进步、自主创新能力提升、产业结构转型等,直接碳排放系数效应、增加值系数效应、中间投入技术结构效应导致中国碳排放强度降低,而最终需求总规模效应则抑制碳排放强度降低;④直接碳排放系数效应对碳排放强度降低的贡献最大,而增加值系数效应、中间投入技术结构效应的贡献却相对较小;⑤中国各区域碳排放强度的影响因素存在一定差异性。未来中国碳减排政策应避免“一刀切”,还要注重区域间横向联合减排,加强节能减排技术研发和产业投入,突破制约产业优化升级的核心技术,减少对高碳性产品的依赖。

关键词: 区域间投入产出表, 碳排放强度, 结构分解分析, 直接碳排放系数效应, 增加值系数效应, 中间投入产出技术结构效应, 最终需求总规模效应, 中国

Abstract:

With the development of economic integration, the study of carbon emission reduction should take into account the relationships between regions. We analyzed carbon emission intensity and influence factors for China's eight regions from 2007 to 2012 based on China multi-regional input-output modeling(CMRIO) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA). We found that carbon emission intensity in the eight regions shows a steady downward trend, the central is the highest and the southern coast is the lowest. Carbon emission intensity of developed regions decreased less, while carbon emission intensity of the undeveloped regions decreased more. This means that carbon emission intensity of regions shows convergence. Due to improvements in energy-saving technology, capacity for independent innovation and adjustment of industrial structure, the effect of direct carbon emission coefficient, added value coefficient and intermediate inputs structure lead to a reduction in carbon emission intensity, while the effect of total final demand leads to an increment in carbon intensity. The contribution of the direct carbon emission coefficient to carbon emission intensity is the largest, while the contribution of the added value coefficient and intermediate inputs are lower. There are some differences in factors affecting carbon emission intensity in these regions. Policy should pay attention to the relationship between regions, strengthen carbon-reduction technology and research investment, breakthrough core technology restricting adjustments in industrial structure, and reduce dependence on high-carbon products.

Key words: multi-regional input-output model, carbon emission intensity, structural decomposition analysis, direct carbon emission coefficient effect, added value coefficient effect, intermediate input-output structure effect, total final demand effect, China