中国石油终端利用碳排放空间分异及影响因素

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.12.03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国是世界第二大石油消费国,而石油消费又是中国第二大碳排放源,石油终端利用碳排放存在一定的区域差异。本文按中国东、中、西部三大地带划分来探讨石油终端利用碳排放的空间分异及其主导影响因素,对因地制宜制定和引导区域碳减排政策具有重要意义。论文运用变异系数和地理探测器方法,分析2015年中国东、中、西部三大地带的空间分异,并探测了其主导因素和地域类型,再根据探测因子与碳排放耦合程度判断不同类型下的典型省份。研究结果表明：①2015年,中国石油终端CO₂排放量呈现东多西少的空间格局,石油终端CO₂排放强度呈现西高东低的空间格局;②石油终端CO₂排放量在全国层面和三大地带层面的变异系数都要显著高于石油终端CO₂排放强度。在三大地域,石油终端CO₂排放量和排放强度均表现为东部地带分异性最强、中部地带最小的基本格局;③全国尺度上,影响石油终端CO₂排放量区域分异的主导因素为柴油消费比、人口规模和人均GDP;影响CO₂排放强度区域分异的主导因素为工业占GDP比重、交通运输业石油消费强度和汽油消费比;④主导碳排放的地域类型可以归纳为能源结构指向型、能源强度指向型、产业结构指向型、经济发展水平指向型和人口规模指向型等5种地域类型;⑤研究表明,中国石油终端利用CO₂排放量和排放强度并没有完全按照三大地带呈现明显的地带性特征,减排政策需要因地制宜,具有针对性。

关键词: 石油终端利用, 碳排放, 空间分异, 主导因素, 地理探测器, 中国

Abstract:

It is well known that China is the world's second largest petroleum consumer and petroleum is China's second largest source of CO₂ emissions. Here we diagnose the dominant factors of differentiation of carbon emissions and reveal the dynamic mechanisms of carbon emissions using the coefficient of variation and geographical detector model. We found that the CO₂ emissions in China's petroleum terminal in the east is higher than that in the west,and the number of provinces of eastern China with higher CO₂ emission is much more than that of western China in 2015. However,the CO₂ emission intensity in China's petroleum terminal in the west is higher than that in the east,and the number of provinces in western China with higher CO₂ emission is much more than that of eastern China in 2015. CO₂ emissions from petroleum terminals are significantly higher at the national level and at the three major regional levels than CO₂ emissions from petroleum terminals. In the three regions,the CO₂ emission and emission intensity of the petroleum terminal showed the strongest differentiation in the eastern region and the smallest in the central region. At the national scale,dominant factors influencing regional differences in CO₂ emissions in the petroleum terminal consumption are the diesel consumption ratio,population size and per capita GDP. While dominant factors affecting regional differentiation of CO₂ emission intensity are industry accounted for GDP,petroleum consumption intensity of transportation industry and gasoline Consumption ratio. There are significant differences in the five types of carbon emissions,namely,energy structure oriented region mainly affected by diesel consumption ratio and gasoline consumption ratio,energy intensity oriented region mainly affected by petroleum consumption intensity of transportation industry,industrial structure oriented region mainly affected by industry accounted for GDP,the level of economic development oriented region mainly affected by per capita GDP,and population oriented region mainly affected by population size.

Key words: petroleum terminal utilization, carbon emissions, regional differentiation, leading factors, geographical detector, China

方叶兵, 王礼茂, 牟初夫, 张宏, 屈秋实. 中国石油终端利用碳排放空间分异及影响因素[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(12): 2233-2246.

Yebing FANG, Limao WANG, Chufu MOU, Hong ZHANG, Qiushi QU. Determinants of spatial disparities of petroleum terminal utilization carbon emissions in China[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(12): 2233-2246.

图/表 11

图1

表1

表2

石油终端利用CO2排放探测因子体系"

影响因素	探测因子	指标解释
能源结构	汽油消费比 $(f 1)$	汽油终端消费量与石油终端消费量的比值/%
	煤油消费比 $(f 2)$	煤油终端消费量与石油终端消费量的比值/%
	柴油消费比 $(f 3)$	柴油消费量与油类消费量的比值/%
	燃料油消费比 $(f 4)$	燃料油消费量与油类消费量的比值/%
能源强度	农业石油消费强度 $(f 5)$	农林牧渔业油类消费量与产值的比值/（t/万元）
	工业石油消费强度 $(f 6)$	工业油类消费量与产值的比值/（t/万元）
	交通运输业石油消费强度 $(f 7)$	交通运输仓储和邮政业油类消费量与产值的比值（t/万元）
产业结构	农业占GDP比重 $(f 8)$	农林牧渔业产值占GDP比重/%
	工业占GDP比重 $(f 9)$	工业产值占GDP比重/%
	交通运输业占GDP比重 $(f 10)$	交通运输仓储邮政业产值占GDP比重/%
经济产出	人均GDP $(f 11)$	人均国内生产总值/（万元/人）
人口规模	人口规模 $(f 12)$	人口规模/万人
	城市化率 $(f 13)$	城镇人口占总人口比重/%

表2

图2

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图8

图9

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