关键词: 主要耗能行业, 技术进步, 节能减排, 中国, 展望

Abstract:

In June 2015 the Chinese government officially launched the declaration “strengthening action on climate change - China national independent contribution” with a commitment that until 2030 per unit GDP carbon emissions will be reduced by 60%~65% compared with 2005 levels and the non-fossil energy of primary energy consumption ratio will reach 20%. Under energy consumption growth,there are only two pathways to fulfill the promise of energy conservation and emission reduction （ECER）toward 2030. First,reconstructing the industrial structures to optimize energy structure,called a static ECER. Second,promoting the progress of scientific innovation and technical progress to reduce carbon emission factors per unit of energy consumption,called a dynamic ECER. Moreover,the dynamic ECER can be defined into three perspectives：（1）increasing the supply of nuclear energy,hydroenergy,wind energy,solar energy and geothermal energy,relying on comprehensive and systematic innovation and progress of engineering technology;（2）promoting the technology and equipment innovation in major energy intensive industries to further raise the oxidant factor of fuel energy and transfer efficiency of energy consumption;and （3）expanding the scale of raw material substitution and consumption by developing new material and process engineering. We focused on four major energy intensive industries：electricity,iron and steel,transportation and building materials,to discuss the prospect of ECER by 2030 based on three perspectives of dynamic ECER. Technical progress plays a vital role in promoting ECER until 2030,whereas it is difficult to create a revolutionary impact. A more reliable roadmap to lead the development of ECER in major energy intensive industries,with more concern on multiple solutions for technical application and improvement.

Key words: China’s major energy intensive industries;, technical progress, energy conservation and emission reduction, prospect