1961—2015年内蒙古高原内陆河东部流域极端降水时空变化特征分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.11.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 掌握极端降水时空变化特征对流域水文生态等相关研究具有重要的指导意义。本文以内蒙古高原内陆河东部流域1961—2015年0.5°×0.5°降水格点数据为基础,采用M-K法、主成分分析和相关分析等气候诊断法,对6个极端降水指数的时空变化特征进行分析,并研究了极端降水事件对ENSO事件的响应。结果表明：1961—2015年内蒙古高原中部内陆河流域极端降水指数的年际变化趋势总体以下降为主,其中CDD（连续无雨日数）下降的区域占整个流域的91%,除CDD外其余指数均呈“东高西低”的空间分布格局,SDII（雨强）均值介于（3.8~5.3）mm/d之间,空间差异较小;R95P（强降水量）在强降水事件中具有0.96的最高载荷,对该事件具有指示作用;当发生厄尔尼诺事件时,流域持续干旱情况加剧,出现拉尼娜现象时,流域易发生洪涝灾害。

关键词: ENSO事件β, 极端降水, 内陆河流域, 内蒙古高原, 时空变化

Abstract: Understanding the spatial and temporal variations of extreme precipitation is of important significance for the relevant studies on hydrological ecology in a basin. In this paper,we use the grid data of precipitation （with a resolution of 0.5°×0.5°）in the eastern part of inland river basin of the Inner Mongolian Plateau from 1961 to 2015 as the basis of study and adopt the methods of climatic diagnosis （e.g.,M-K method,principal component analysis,and correlation analysis）to examine the spatial and temporal variations of six extreme precipitation indexes. Moreover,we study the response of extreme precipitation events to El Niño-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）events. The results indicate that in recent 55 years,the inter-annual variation trend of extreme precipitation indexes for the study area is generally dominated by declination,except for the maximum precipitation over 5 days （RX5DAY）and the heavy precipitation （R95P）. In particular,the region with decreasing consecutive dry days （CDD）accounts for 91% of the entire basin,6.7% of which is showing a significant downward trend. Except CDD,all the extreme indexes of the study area exhibit a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the east and low in the west",and the average SDII ranges from 3.8 to 5.3mm/d,with relatively small spatial differences. To some extent,CDD and R95P can be used to characterize the drought events and the heavy rainfall events,respectively,and they both have strong correlations （at a significance level of α=0.1）with the other indices that belong to the same category of extreme event. Moreover,more droughts may be observed in El Nino years,while the flood disasters may occur more frequently in La Nina years.

Key words: ENSO events, extreme precipitation, inland river basin, Inner Mongolian Plateau, spatial and temporal variation

李玮, 段利民, 刘廷玺, 格日勒吐, 高瑞忠, BurenScharaw, 于长翔. 1961—2015年内蒙古高原内陆河东部流域极端降水时空变化特征分析[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(11): 2153-2165.

LI Wei, DUAN Limin, LIU Tingxi, Geriletu, GAO Ruizhong, Buren Scharaw, YU Changxiang. Spatio-temporal variations of extreme precipitation from 1961 to 2015 in the eastern inland river basin of Inner Mongolian Plateau[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(11): 2153-2165.

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