中国海域使用演变特征及发展趋势分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.11.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 了解与掌握海域使用规模、结构变化特征及其未来变化趋势,对于海洋资源的合理使用,海域空间的有效配置及探索相应的优化策略具有重要的现实意义。本文利用洛伦兹曲线的集中化指数、信息熵模型和R/S分析等方法分析了2002—2015年全国海域使用规模和结构时空差异特征,并进行了动态趋势预测。结果表明：①全国海域使用规模持续上升、空间集聚度高、新增用海规模波动增长且区域差异加大;②渔业、工业和交通等传统用海比重高、相对增长速度随时间加快、海域使用结构优势度增强并趋于有序;③未来14年（2016—2029年）全国和沿海各省海域使用规模仍保持增长,工业、交通运输、海底工程和特殊用途等各类型海域使用规模还将上升,渔业、旅游娱乐等用海则表现为减缓的趋势,排污用海则持续下降;④海域使用规模和结构及其变化受区位、历史、经济、土地和政策等因子共同作用,并对海域的生态环境产生较大影响。研究结果对海域管理政策的制定有重要的参考价值。

关键词: R/S分析, 发展趋势, 海域使用规模和结构, 洛伦兹集中化指数, 区位熵, 演变特征

Abstract: In order to promote the rational utilization of marine resources and the effective allocation of sea area,it is important to get a better understanding of the changing trend of sea area use scale and structure. In the current study,temporal-spatial differences of sea area use scale and structure in China from 2002 to 2015 were analyzed by using the centralization index of Lorentz Curve,Information Entropy,Equilibrium degree and Dominance degree. The changing trend of sea area use was predicted by using R/S method,and the main factors influencing sea area use changes were also explored. The results could be concluded as follows：（1）the scale of nationwide sea area use has increased continuously with a high degree of spatial agglomeration. The newly increased sea area use scale has been rolling up and the spatial differences of sea area use was enlarged during the study period. The sea area use is mainly concentrated in Liaoning,Shandong and Jiangsu provinces. （2）The sea area use of fisheries,industry and communication accounts for a high proportion. The relative growth rate of sea area use speeded up in most categories （with the exception of sewage dumping and other types of sea area use）. The dominant degree of sea area use structure first decreased from 2002 to 2004 and then increased after 2004. The sea area use structure was approaching to an ordered state based on reducing information entropy. Ocean development may negatively impact the marine environment through declining sea water quality and disrupting ecological balance. （3）In the next 14 years （2016—2029）,sea area use scale will keep the same changing trend as the past and will still be growing in the whole country as well as in coastal provinces of China. The categories of sea area use scale such as industry,communication,submarine engineering and special use will keep increasing,while those such as fishery and tourism & recreation will slow down and the sea area use of sewage dumping will present a downward trend. （4）The scale and structure of sea area use and their changes have been influenced by many factors including the location,history,economy,land and policy of the local administrative division where the sea area is distributed,which may have negative impacts on the marine ecological environment. The results of the current study will provide reference value and guidance significance to formulate administrative policies and relevant optimizing strategies for sea area use.

Key words: centralization index of Lorentz Curve, dynamic trend analyses, information entropy, R/S analysis, scale and structure of sea area use, variations

雷磊, 高秋香, 杨晨. 中国海域使用演变特征及发展趋势分析[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(11): 2030-2039.

LEI Lei, GAO Qiuxiang, YANG Chen. The variations and trend analyses of sea area use in China[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(11): 2030-2039.

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