资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (10): 1896-1908.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.10.09

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不同情景下碳排放达峰对中国经济的影响——基于CGE模型的分析

王勇1,2(), 王恩东1(), 毕莹1   

  1. 1. 东北财经大学统计学院,大连 116025
    2. 东北财经大学博士后科研流动站,大连 116025
  • 收稿日期:2017-04-05 修回日期:2017-09-12 出版日期:2017-10-20 发布日期:2017-10-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:王勇,男,山东临沂人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,从事资源环境统计分析。E-mail:ywang@dufe.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目(2015YZD08);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2017T100180);东北财经大学博士后科研项目(BSH201708)

Impact of a peak in carbon emissions on China's economy in different situations:analysis based on CGE model

Yong WANG1,2(), Endong WANG1(), Ying BI1   

  1. 1. School of Statistics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China
    2. Postdoctoral Research Station of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China
  • Received:2017-04-05 Revised:2017-09-12 Online:2017-10-20 Published:2017-10-20

摘要:

实现碳排放达到峰值既是中国在全球气候谈判中的国际承诺,也是中国实现经济结构转型和可持续发展的必要选择。政策约束下的碳排放达峰会对中国经济发展产生一定程度影响。本文通过构建包含气候保护函数的七部门CGE模型,模拟评估中国在2025年、2030年和2035年实现碳排放达峰的经济影响,包括对综合经济的影响和对各部门进出口及产出的影响。结果表明,碳排放达峰时间越早,对中国造成的经济影响越大;三种碳排放达峰情景下,政府收入及储蓄均有明显下降,对其余经济指标基本不会造成太大影响;碳排放达峰对建筑业产出影响较小,其他部门产出略有增长。综合来看,2030年是中国碳排放达峰的最佳时间点。文章最后提出了应对碳排放达峰的政策建议。

关键词: 碳排放达峰, 经济影响, CGE模型, 情景分析, 中国

Abstract:

In order to actively respond to global climate change and reduce carbon dioxide emissions,China has proposed to achieve a carbon dioxide emissions peak in 2030. Achieving peak carbon emissions is both an international commitment in China's global climate negotiations and a necessary choice for China to achieve economic restructuring and sustainable development. A carbon emissions peak under policy constraints have a certain degree of impact on China's economic development. Based on the 7-sector CGE model,which includes climate protection expenditure,we simulated the economic impact of China achieving peak carbon emissions in 2025,2030 and 2035. The results show that the earlier the time of achieving the peak of carbon emissions,the greater the economic impact. Three kinds of carbon emission peak scenarios,government revenue and savings have decreased significantly,while the rest of the economic indicators have not caused much impact. The impact of the peak of carbon emissions on the construction industry is small,while the output of other sectors may increase slightly. On the whole,2030 is the best time for China to achieve a peak in carbon emissions. We suggest that China adopt more climate protection policies to achieve the peak of carbon emissions in China. The country should increase its emphasis on carbon sequestration,protect the absorption capacity of forests to carbon and achieve a win-win situation for carbon reduction and carbon enrichment. Carbon emission peak time of 2030 is the best time for China's carbon emissions peak and to prematurely achieve this target in carbon dioxide emissions will have a negative impact on economic growth and output decline in all sectors.

Key words: carbon emissions peak, economic impact, CGE model, scenario analysis, China