资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (10): 1858-1870.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.10.06

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居住模式、地方政府土地供给行为与人口流动——以广东省和山东省为例

彭山桂1(), 陈晨2, 王健3, 张悦妍1, 程道平1()   

  1. 1. 山东师范大学商学院,济南 250014
    2. 济南铁路土地管理局,济南 250001
    3. 南京农业大学公共管理学院,南京 210095
  • 收稿日期:2017-03-21 修回日期:2017-09-13 出版日期:2017-10-20 发布日期:2017-10-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:彭山桂,男,四川蓬安人,博士,讲师,主要研究方向为土地经济。E-mail:pengshangui@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目(15CJY047)

Settlement patterns,local government land supply and population flow

Shangui PENG1(), Chen CHEN2, Jian WANG3, Yueyan ZHANG1, Daoping CHENG1()   

  1. 1. School of Business,Shandong Normal University,Ji’nan 250014,China
    2. Land Administration Bureau,Ji’nan Railway Bureau,Ji’nan 250001,China
    3. College of Public Administration,Nanjing Agriculture University,Nanjing 210095,China
  • Received:2017-03-21 Revised:2017-09-13 Online:2017-10-20 Published:2017-10-20

摘要:

本文区分非正规居住和正规居住两种模式,基于理论分析,分别构建两个一般均衡模型,通过模型推导和数值模拟,提出两个研究假说。在此基础上,利用2001-2014年广东省和山东省设区市的面板数据,运用门限回归分析方法,实证分析了不同居住模式下,地方政府土地供给行为对人口流动的影响方式。研究发现:①在非正规居住模式下,地方政府土地供给行为是城市间人口流动很重要的影响因素,地方政府土地供给行为对城市间人口流动的影响方式呈现为线性方式;地方政府增加工业用地供给,会导致人口流入;地方政府减少工业用地供给,会导致减缓人口流入(或导致人口流出);②在正规居住模式下,地方政府土地供给行为是城市间人口流动较为重要的影响因素,地方政府土地供给行为对城市间人口流动的影响方式呈现为倒U型方式;在(0,Si*]区间内,增加工业用地供给或减少住宅及商服用地供给,有助于吸引人口流入;在(Si*,∞)区间内,增加住宅及商服用地供给或减少工业用地供给,有助于吸引人口流入。

关键词: 居住模式, 地方政府, 土地供给行为, 人口流动, 一般均衡模型, 广东省, 山东省

Abstract:

Between irregular and regular settlement patterns,based on theoretical analysis,we built two general equilibrium models for local government,enterprise and residents. By model derivation and numerical simulation,two research hypotheses were put forward. Using panel data for prefecture-level cities in Guangdong and Shandong for 2001 to 2014,we analyzed the empirical impact of land supply from local governments on population flow by threshold regression,under different settlement patterns. We found that under an irregular settlement pattern,the local government land supply is a very important impact factor and has a linearity effect on population inflow between cities. The population inflow will increase when local governments enlarge industrial land supply,and the population inflow will slow or outflow when local governments decrease industrial land supply. Under a regular settlement pattern,local government supply is a relative important impact factor and has an inverted U type relationship with population inflow between cities. The [0,Si*] interval helps draw population inflow while increasing the proportion of the industrial land or decreasing the proportion of residential and commercial land. The [Si*,∞] interval increases the proportion of residential and commercial land and favors population inflow. Based on the above research conclusion,we suggest that local governments use land supply as a tool to guide population inflow and outflow.

Key words: settlement pattern, local government, land supply, population flow, general equilibrium model, Guangdong Province, Shandong Province