资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (9): 1777-1791.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.09.15

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林业生态安全指标-指数的耦合实证测度研究

廖冰1,2(), 张智光1,2()   

  1. 1. 南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京 210037
    2. 南京林业大学环境与发展系统工程研究所,南京 210037
  • 收稿日期:2016-11-06 修回日期:2017-07-03 出版日期:2017-09-20 发布日期:2017-09-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:廖冰,男,江西高安人,博士生,主要研究领域为林业管理工程。E-mail:liaobing1002@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71173107、71673136);江苏省高校哲学社会科学优秀创新团队建设项目(苏教社政2013-8-2-1);2016年江苏省普通高校学术学位研究生科研创新计划项目(KYZZ16_0314)

The empirical measurement of coupling from indicators to indexes of forestry ecological security

Bing LIAO1,2(), Zhiguang ZHANG1,2()   

  1. 1. College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China
    2. System Engineering Institute for Environment and Development,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China
  • Received:2016-11-06 Revised:2017-07-03 Online:2017-09-20 Published:2017-09-20

摘要:

研究林业生态安全测度评价对管理者制定林业生态安全预警、监管和控制措施以深入推进生态文明建设具有重要意义。为克服已有研究的不足,本文立足于林业生态安全的广义内涵——产业与生态互利共生,在分析林业产业压力与森林生态相互关系的基础上,利用2004-2015年全国及31省域面板数据,运用结构化PSIR和定量化SEM方法确定了林业生态安全指标及其权重,通过Lotka-Volterra方法得到了具有生态经济意义的林业生态安全共生度指数及其判据,实现由指标向指数的耦合集成,最后对全国及31省域林业生态安全实证测度,并根据测度的“系列指数”追溯“指标变量”以找出林业生态安全问题的原因,实现由指数向指标的回溯解耦。研究结果表明:①整个中国林业产业压力与森林生态处于非绿色共生模式导致林业生态安全处于预警状态,这将产生潜在的林业生态安全隐患,亟需引起高度重视,要实现林业绿色安全仍任重道远;②31省域中,处于林业生态安全预警省域的数量(18省域,占比58%)要多于处于林业生态安全省域的数量(13省域,占比42%);③林业生态安全不仅依赖于林业自然资源禀赋能力,还取决于林业产业压力与森林生态的共生协调状态。

关键词: 森林生态, 林业产业压力, 生态与产业共生, 林业生态安全, 指标体系, 特征指数, 耦合与解耦

Abstract:

Studying the calculation of forestry ecological security is significant for managers to determine policy for supervising forestry ecological security and promote ecological civilization. This study aimed to overcome defects in existing research regarding the essential attribute of forestry ecological security: symbiosis between forestry industry pressure and forest ecology. First, indicators and weightings were determined by means of pressure-state-impact-response(PSIR) and structural equation modeling(SEM). Second, with data for China and thirty-one provinces from 2004-2015, symbiotic degree indexes with ecology economic significance and judgment criteria of forestry ecological security were constructed using Lotka-Volterra method,realizing the coupling from indicators to indexes. Last, the empirical calculation of forestry ecological security in China and thirty-one provinces was carried out and indicators were tracked to determine key reasons for existing problems according to calculated indexes, realizing decoupling from indexes to indicators. We found that the Chinese forestry industry pressure and forest ecology are not at the state of green symbiosis so that forestry ecological security is at state of pre-warning and the potential hidden risk of forestry ecological security will appear; there will be a very long way to go. In all 31 provinces, the quantities of provinces in a state of pre-warning for forestry ecological security(including 18 provinces, 58%) are more than the quantities of provinces which are at state of forestry green security (including 13 provinces, 42%). Forestry green security not only depends on resource endowment and natural conditions but also the symbiotic state between the forestry industry pressure and forest ecology.

Key words: forest ecology, forestry industry pressure, ecology and industry symbiosis, forestry ecological security, indicators system, characteristic indexes, coupling and decoupling