资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (9): 1753-1764.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.09.13
收稿日期:
2017-02-10
修回日期:
2017-07-05
出版日期:
2017-09-20
发布日期:
2017-09-20
作者简介:
作者简介:黄亿,女,浙江衢州人,硕士,主要从事气候变化对作物产量影响研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Yi HUANG1,2(), Jing WANG1(
), Di HE1, Jianzhao TANG1
Received:
2017-02-10
Revised:
2017-07-05
Online:
2017-09-20
Published:
2017-09-20
摘要:
为明确西南地区气候变暖前后春玉米生长季内不利气象条件的时空演变特征,本文采用西南地区27个农业气象站点1981-2010年的发育期资料和66个气象站点的1961-2010年的逐日气象资料,分析气候变暖前后西南春玉米生长季内连阴天、高温、低温及水分盈亏发生的时空分布特征。研究结果表明:①西南地区春玉米生长季内,连阴天主要发生在出苗-七叶和七叶-抽穗阶段,变暖后发生频率分别平均增加12%和15%,但仅11%和14%的研究站点显著增加(P<0.05);②高温天气主要发生在乳熟-成熟阶段,且主要集中在东北部地区,变暖后发生天数每生长季平均减少2.5d,23%的站点高温发生的天数显著减少(P<0.05);低温天气在整个生长季均有发生,变暖后低温出现天数每生长季平均减少2.2d,其中七叶-抽穗阶段低温发生天数减少最为显著,56%的站点发生天数显著减少(P<0.05);③水分亏缺主要发生在播种-拔节阶段,变暖后轻、中度水分亏缺发生频率分别增加6%和7%;春玉米各个生长阶段均受不同程度的水分盈余影响,但主要表现为轻度盈余,除西北部外,变暖后轻度水分盈余发生频率增加15%,播种-拔节和灌浆-成熟阶段21%和11%的研究站点轻度水分盈余显著增加(P<0.05)。总体来看,变暖后西南地区春玉米生长季高温、低温发生天数减少,对玉米生长有利,但连阴天以及水分盈亏发生频率增加,可导致玉米品质下降和产量减少。
黄亿, 王靖, 赫迪, 唐建昭. 气候变暖下西南春玉米生长季不利气象条件的时空演变[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(9): 1753-1764.
Yi HUANG, Jing WANG, Di HE, Jianzhao TANG. Temporal-spatial change in adverse meteorological conditions during spring maize growth in Southwest China under climate warming[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(9): 1753-1764.
表1
研究区各种植区玉米生长季时间及气候资源概况"
分区 | 最高温度 /℃ | 最低温度 /℃ | 平均温度 /℃ | 总日照时数 /h | 总降水量 /mm | 玉米播种 /收获时间 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
I | 41.2 | -0.3 | 21.2 | 540.4 | 611.4 | 3月14日/7月20日 |
II | 42.6 | 1.4 | 23.4 | 481.8 | 592.6 | 4月25日/8月18日 |
III | 41.4 | -2.7 | 22.9 | 617.8 | 806.1 | 4月18日/8月25日 |
IV | 39.7 | -0.1 | 20.9 | 520.9 | 649.8 | 5月2日/8月30日 |
V | 35.5 | 0.8 | 19.3 | 769.7 | 755.1 | 4月23日/9月17日 |
VI | 42.5 | 3.7 | 22.4 | 602.9 | 874.7 | 4月28日/8月31日 |
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