资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (9): 1712-1724.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.09.10

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退耕还林生态补偿与县域经济增长的关系分析——基于拉姆塞-卡斯-库普曼宏观增长模型

李国平(), 石涵予()   

  1. 西安交通大学经济与金融学院,西安 710061
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-21 修回日期:2017-03-02 出版日期:2017-09-20 发布日期:2017-09-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:李国平,女,四川宜宾人,教授、博士生导师,研究方向为资源环境与生态补偿。E-mail:laogplee@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大攻关项目(12 & ZD072)

The relationship between GTGP and regional economic growth based on Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Modeling

Guoping LI(), Hanyu SHI()   

  1. Xi'an Jiaotong University,Shaanxi 710061,China
  • Received:2016-12-21 Revised:2017-03-02 Online:2017-09-20 Published:2017-09-20

摘要:

已有关于生态补偿的研究,较少从宏观视角考虑生态补偿资金规模对区域经济增长的影响。本文在拉姆塞-卡斯-库普曼宏观增长模型的基础上,纳入生态补偿提供资金和生态效益的过程,从理论上分析生态补偿资金投入对经济增长的影响,表明生态补偿资金通过提高资本的增长率进而推动经济增长。再利用陕西省79个退耕还林县的统计数据进行实证研究。首先,采用二步聚类法对陕西省内各县的退耕还林规模加以分类,并以此作为解释变量进行面板回归,分析退耕还林规模对县域经济增长的平均影响,结果表明退耕还林促进县域经济增长,且高退耕还林规模对县域经济增长的促进作用更大。然后,采用分位数回归方法分析在不同经济增长率条件下,退耕还林规模对经济增长的边际影响,结果表明,县域经济增长率越高,退耕还林生态补偿对经济增长的作用越大;无论县域经济增长率如何变化,退耕地还林对县域经济增长的促进作用都大于荒山荒地造林和封山育林。

关键词: 生态补偿, 退耕还林, 经济增长, 县域模型, 拉姆塞-卡斯-库普曼宏观增长模型, 陕西

Abstract:

Current research has largely overlooked macro perspective analysis of the impact of investment on regional economic growth. Here,we developed a theoretical analysis framework by including the amount of payment for ecosystem service (PES)fund and its ecological outcomes into the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model. With the developed theoretical model,the impact of PES fund on regional economic growth was analyzed. Our theoretical analysis shows that investment in PES boosts regional economic growth by raising capital growth rate in that area. To consolidate our theoretical findings,we empirically examined the relationship between Grain to Green Project (GTGP) investment and regional economic growth on data obtained from 79 counties in Shaanxi involved in the GTGP. We first employed a two-step clustering algorithm to categorize selected counties into two groups according to their GTGP participation scale. Then,the obtained cluster result for each county was used as the explanatory variable in panel data analysis to estimate the average impact of GTGP investment on regional economic growth. We found that GTGP scale,quantified by a dummy variable obtained from previous clustering analysis,positively impacts regional economic growth at the country level. Further,the marginal impact of GTGP investment on regional economic growth was investigated by employing quantile regression. The impact of GTGP investment on the regional economy increases with the economic growth rate,quantified by the area of farmland conversion and the total area involved in GTGP respectively. Within the GTGP,the contribution to economic growth is larger in farmland conversion compared to barren wasteland afforestation programs and close hillsides to facilitate afforestation program. This difference persists despite changes in the economic growth rate of a county.

Key words: payment for ecological service, GTGP, economic growth, regional model, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Modeling, Shaanxi Province