退耕还林生态补偿与县域经济增长的关系分析——基于拉姆塞-卡斯-库普曼宏观增长模型

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.09.10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

已有关于生态补偿的研究,较少从宏观视角考虑生态补偿资金规模对区域经济增长的影响。本文在拉姆塞-卡斯-库普曼宏观增长模型的基础上,纳入生态补偿提供资金和生态效益的过程,从理论上分析生态补偿资金投入对经济增长的影响,表明生态补偿资金通过提高资本的增长率进而推动经济增长。再利用陕西省79个退耕还林县的统计数据进行实证研究。首先,采用二步聚类法对陕西省内各县的退耕还林规模加以分类,并以此作为解释变量进行面板回归,分析退耕还林规模对县域经济增长的平均影响,结果表明退耕还林促进县域经济增长,且高退耕还林规模对县域经济增长的促进作用更大。然后,采用分位数回归方法分析在不同经济增长率条件下,退耕还林规模对经济增长的边际影响,结果表明,县域经济增长率越高,退耕还林生态补偿对经济增长的作用越大;无论县域经济增长率如何变化,退耕地还林对县域经济增长的促进作用都大于荒山荒地造林和封山育林。

关键词: 生态补偿, 退耕还林, 经济增长, 县域模型, 拉姆塞-卡斯-库普曼宏观增长模型, 陕西

Abstract:

Current research has largely overlooked macro perspective analysis of the impact of investment on regional economic growth. Here,we developed a theoretical analysis framework by including the amount of payment for ecosystem service （PES）fund and its ecological outcomes into the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model. With the developed theoretical model,the impact of PES fund on regional economic growth was analyzed. Our theoretical analysis shows that investment in PES boosts regional economic growth by raising capital growth rate in that area. To consolidate our theoretical findings,we empirically examined the relationship between Grain to Green Project (GTGP) investment and regional economic growth on data obtained from 79 counties in Shaanxi involved in the GTGP. We first employed a two-step clustering algorithm to categorize selected counties into two groups according to their GTGP participation scale. Then,the obtained cluster result for each county was used as the explanatory variable in panel data analysis to estimate the average impact of GTGP investment on regional economic growth. We found that GTGP scale,quantified by a dummy variable obtained from previous clustering analysis,positively impacts regional economic growth at the country level. Further,the marginal impact of GTGP investment on regional economic growth was investigated by employing quantile regression. The impact of GTGP investment on the regional economy increases with the economic growth rate,quantified by the area of farmland conversion and the total area involved in GTGP respectively. Within the GTGP,the contribution to economic growth is larger in farmland conversion compared to barren wasteland afforestation programs and close hillsides to facilitate afforestation program. This difference persists despite changes in the economic growth rate of a county.

Key words: payment for ecological service, GTGP, economic growth, regional model, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Modeling, Shaanxi Province

李国平, 石涵予. 退耕还林生态补偿与县域经济增长的关系分析——基于拉姆塞-卡斯-库普曼宏观增长模型[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(9): 1712-1724.

Guoping LI, Hanyu SHI. The relationship between GTGP and regional economic growth based on Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Modeling[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(9): 1712-1724.

图/表 5

表 1

表 2

表 3

表 4

对人均生产总值增长率回归的结果"

变量	回归1	回归2	回归3	回归4	回归5	回归6
$α$	0.236 2***	0.138 9***	0.139 0***	0.183 9***	0.251 1***	0.232 8***
FIN	0.092 1***	0.113 1***	0.113 0***	0.030 7	-0.028 0	0.022 0
SAVE	-0.086 2***	-0.096 4***	-0.097 1***	-0.089 7***	-0.063 4***	-0.065 6***
SEC	0.118 4***	0.101 9***	0.101 2***	0.090 9***	0.109 4***	0.105 6***
SCH	-	1.511 4***	1.507 0***	1.577 6***	1.598 0***	1.711 7***
FIX	-	-	0.001 6	0.003 7	-0.016 4	-0.015 6
EM	-	-	-	-0.002 0***	-0.003 4***	-0.003 2***
URP	-	-	-	-	-0.309 3***	-0.304 4***
D	-	-	-	-	-	0.015 7**
修R²	0.278 9	0.302 4	0.299 3	0.305 0	0.334 3	0.342 6
样本量	711	711	711	711	711	711

表 4

表 5

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变量	经济含义	代表指标	预期效应
FIX	社会投资水平	全社会固定资产投资占地区生产总值的比重	正
FIN	政府投资水平	政府财政支出占地区生产总值的比重	正
SAVE	储蓄发展水平	城乡居民储蓄存款余额占地区生产总值的比重	正
EM	劳动投入量	地区就业总人数（城镇就业人数+乡村就业人数）	负
SCH	地区教育水平	普通中学在校学生数占总人口的比重	正
SEC	工业化水平	第二产业增加值占地区生产总值的比重	正
URP	人口的社会结构	乡村人口占总人口的比重	负

变量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值	偏度	峰度	Jarque-Bera统计量
FIN	0.204 1	0.129 3	0.035 5	0.621 3	1.474 1	4.952 5	40.639 2***
SAVE	0.679 2	0.294 3	0.086 0	2.073 1	1.071 6	8.040 5	97.499 4***
SEC	0.442 8	0.231 5	0.079 6	1.064 6	0.833 8	2.742 7	9.253 7***
SCH	0.077 0	0.015 8	0.047 0	0.109 3	0.107 0	2.154 6	2.472 0
FIX	0.529 4	0.250 3	0.123 6	1.623 9	1.803 4	7.631 7	112.001 6***
EM	13.968 7	8.788 5	1.090 3	41.080 1	0.985 1	3.911 6	15.318 6***
URP	0.833 3	0.074 6	0.604 9	0.983 7	-1.026 2	4.046 5	17.249 9***
TG	11 424.47	10 907.18	0	62 653.33	2.409 3	9.981 4	233.864 8***
TTG	27 389.31	20 469.13	466.666 7	123 580.00	2.061 1	8.581 3	156.467 6***

变量	LLC检验	变量	LLC检验
Y'	-39.4010***	EM	-15.1505***
FIX	-21.5173***	SCH	-3.4201***
FIN	-9.3248***	SEC	-20.9616***
SAVE	-8.6641***	URP	-19.4128***

回归模型	解释变量	全样本OLS	0.2分位	0.5分位	0.7分位	0.9分位
模型一	TG	0.011 0***（0.002 6）	0.002 9 （0.003 5）	0.007 2** （0.002 7）	0.007 4（0.005 5）	0.030 3***（0.010 1）
	修正的R²	0.585 8	—	—	—	—
	Pseudo R²	—	0.075 7	0.236 1	0.378 3	0.544 2
模型二	TTG	0.005 4***（0.001 6）	0.002 2***（0.001 4）	0.003 3* （0.001 4）	0.004 0（0.002 4）	0.011 8** （0.004 8）
	修正的R²	0.560 6	—	—	—	—
	Pseudo R²	—	0.090 6	0.211 0	0.353 9	0.490 2