中国县级海岛经济体脆弱性综合评价及空间分异研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.09.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

海岛经济体脆弱性是海岛经济体人地关系系统在发展过程中受到内外部干扰所表现出的不可持续状态。本研究从自然本底、资源、生态环境、社会和经济5个层面选取38项具体指标,构建海岛经济体脆弱性综合评价体系,对2016年中国12个海岛县海岛经济体脆弱性指数值进行了测定,并对这些海岛县脆弱性的空间分异进行了分析。结果表明：中国12个海岛县脆弱性差异明显,依据脆弱性程度可分为4个等级,其中普陀区、定海区、东山县、玉环县为低脆弱度,嵊泗县、长岛县、长海县为弱脆弱度,平潭县、岱山县、洞头区为中脆弱度,崇明区、南澳县为强脆弱度;各海岛县脆弱性指数在空间分布上呈现出“区域化”和“集群化”特征。本研究为海岛经济体可持续发展和海岛地区合理开发提供科学依据。

关键词: 海岛经济体, 脆弱性综合评价, 空间分异, 海岛县

Abstract:

The island is a strategic bridgehead to develop and utilize marine resources and an important part of the human sea coupling system. With development of islands,ecological environmental problems gradually appear. Islands are facing unprecedented double pressure and challenges from the ecological environment and social development. Island economic vulnerability refers to an unsustainable state when the development of human-earth system in the island economy resists disturbances from various internal or external natural factors. Here we conducted island economic vulnerability assessments using a comprehensive index assessment method based on 38 parameters across five aspects（natural basis,resources,eco- environmental systems,economics and social development）. In addition,standard values of measurements were established and used to evaluate overall island economic vulnerability and spatial differentiation. We found obvious differences in vulnerability across the 12 island counties and can be divided into four grades：Putuo District,Dinghai District,Yuhuan County and Dongshan County have low vulnerability;Shengsi County,Changdao County and Changhai County have weak vulnerability;Daishan County Pingtan County and Dongtou County have moderate vulnerability;and Chongming County and Nanao County have high vulnerability. Island economic vulnerability shows remarkable spatial differentiation regarding regionalization and clustered distribution. This study provides a scientific basis for the sustainable development of island economies and their reasonable development.

Key words: island economies, vulnerability assessment, spatial differentiation, island county

秦伟山, 孙剑锋, 张义丰, 李世泰. 中国县级海岛经济体脆弱性综合评价及空间分异研究[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(9): 1692-1701.

Weishan QIN, Jianfeng SUN, Yifeng ZHANG, Shitai LI. Research on vulnerability and spatial differentiation on island economies on county level of China[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(9): 1692-1701.

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侧重点	概念	研究学者
与自然灾害研究领域中的“风险”概念类似	个体或群体暴露于不利影响或遭受损害的可能性	Dittmer B ^[23]
强调一种 “度”	指系统遭受不利影响或损害的响应程度	Timmerman^[2]
强调一种“可能性”	人们遭受外部有害物质威胁的可能性	Gabor和Griffith^[24]
强调脆弱性的综合性	脆弱性是包含暴露、敏感性、恢复力的概念结合	Adger^[25]
强调脆弱性是系统内部固有属性	系统对扰动的敏感性和应对能力的缺失而造成的系统结构和功能容易发生改变的一种属性	李鹤等^[26]

目标层	指标层	权重	性质
自然本底脆弱性	海岛离大陆最近距离/km	0.19	正
（0.22）	海陆交通通达度指数	0.21	负
	气象灾害受灾程度	0.23	正
	海岛平均坡度/度	0.11	正
	海岛区位指数	0.15	负
	海岛陆海面积系数/%	0.11	负
资源脆弱性	人均海域面积/km²	0.17	负
（0.16）	人均海岸线长度/km	0.14	负
	人均可利用土地面积/km²	0.13	负
	人均可支配电量/kW∙h	0.15	负
	旅游资源丰富度/万元	0.18	负
	人均渔业资源/万元	0.12	负
	年均降水量/mm	0.11	负
生态环境脆弱性	沿海水域水质达标率/%	0.15	负
（0.20）	污水处理率/%	0.18	负
	垃圾处理率/%	0.18	负
	空气质量质优天数比例/%	0.15	负
	植被覆盖率/%	0.20	负
	海岛景观人工干扰指数/%	0.14	正
社会脆弱性	人口密度/(人/ km²)	0.09	负
（0.19）	人口老龄化指数/%	0.09	正
	千人中学生在校人数/%	0.11	负
	城市化率/%	0.18	负
	千人医护人员数/人	0.14	负
	大专学历以上人数比例/%	0.13	负
	互联网普及率/%	0.16	负
	人均固定资产投资额/%	0.10	负
经济脆弱性	港口开发利用效率/万元	0.10	负
（0.23）	第三产业占GDP比例/%	0.08	负
	产业结构相似性系数/%	0.07	正
	万元GDP电耗/kW∙h	0.12	负
	城镇人口年可支配收入/元	0.09	负
	农村人口年可支配收入/元	0.08	负
	恩格尔系数/%	0.07	正
	年度入岛旅游人数/万人	0.09	负
	进出口贸易总额/亿美元	0.17	负
	人均GDP/元	0.07	负
	实际吸引内外资总额/万人	0.06	负

	自然本底脆弱度	资源脆弱度	生态环境脆弱度	社会脆弱度	经济脆弱度	综合脆弱度
长海县	0.090 4	-0.538 4	-0.426 9	-0.314 6	-0.229 0	-0.264 1
长岛县	0.026 2	-0.535 1	-0.566 0	-0.287 4	-0.111 4	-0.273 3
崇明县	-0.208 6	-0.287 7	-0.107 6	-0.261 9	-0.161 4	-0.200 4
嵊泗县	0.328 9	-0.550 5	-0.541 4	-0.518 2	-0.345 1	-0.301 9
岱山县	0.144 5	-0.302 5	-0.493 8	-0.419 8	-0.201 2	-0.241 4
普陀区	-0.039 1	-0.389 5	-0.426 6	-0.572 8	-0.587 6	-0.400 2
定海区	-0.078 1	-0.185 8	-0.453 6	-0.539 5	-0.628 4	-0.384 7
玉环县	0.104 9	-0.357 2	-0.544 6	-0.554 3	-0.427 0	-0.346 5
洞头区	0.149 1	-0.266 9	-0.558 9	-0.425 4	-0.099 5	-0.225 4
平潭县	0.014 2	-0.123 7	-0.510 2	-0.551 8	-0.152 8	-0.258 7
东山县	-0.003 1	-0.624 9	-0.700 0	-0.409 3	-0.128 1	-0.347 9
南澳县	0.101 0	-0.282 1	-0.482 6	-0.172 4	0.039 9	-0.143 0

海岛经济体脆弱性等级	一级（强脆弱度）	二级（中脆弱度）	三级（弱脆弱度）	四级（低脆弱度）
自然本底脆弱性	嵊泗县	洞头区、岱山县、玉环县、南澳县	长海县、长岛县、平潭县	东山县、普陀区、定海区、崇明县
资源脆弱性	平潭县、定海区	南澳县、洞头区、崇明区	普陀区、玉环县、岱山县	长岛县、长海县、嵊泗县、东山县
生态环境脆弱性	崇明区	普陀区、长海县、定海区、南澳县、岱山县	平潭县、嵊泗县、玉环县、洞头区、长岛县	东山县
社会脆弱性	南澳县、崇明区	长岛县、长海县、东山县	岱山县、洞头区嵊泗县	普陀区、玉环县、平潭县、定海区
经济脆弱性	南澳县、洞头区	长岛县、东山县、崇明区、平潭县	长海县、岱山县、嵊泗县	玉环县、普陀区、定海区
综合脆弱性	崇明区、南澳县	平潭县、岱山县、洞头区	嵊泗县、长海县、长岛县	普陀区、定海区、东山县、玉环县