资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (8): 1605-1613.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.08.16

• • 上一篇    

辽宁水稻气候适宜度日尺度评价研究

武晋雯1(), 孙龙彧2, 纪瑞鹏1, 冯锐1, 于文颖1, 张玉书1()   

  1. 1. 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,沈阳 110166
    2. 沈阳市气象局,沈阳 110168
  • 收稿日期:2017-03-02 修回日期:2017-06-16 出版日期:2017-08-20 发布日期:2017-08-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:武晋雯,女,辽宁葫芦岛人,硕士,副研究员,主要从事农业气象领域的遥感研究。E-mail:pipi824@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    基金项目:中央级公益性科研院所基本科研项目(2015IAE-CMA04);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306036);国家自然科学基金项目(41405109)

Intraday evaluation modeling of climatic suitability for rice in Liaoning Province

Jinwen WU1(), Longyu SUN2, Ruipeng JI1, Rui FENG1, Wenying YU1, Yushu ZHANG1()   

  1. 1. Institute of Atmospheric Environment,China Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110166,China
    2. Shenyang Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110168,China
  • Received:2017-03-02 Revised:2017-06-16 Online:2017-08-20 Published:2017-08-20

摘要:

时间尺度的选择是水稻与气候关系研究中的关键环节。为评价中短时灾害情景下的水稻气候适宜性,本文以辽宁省1961-2010年逐日气温、日照时数为影响因子,结合气候产量采用通径分析方法确定各因子权重,进而构建水稻气候适宜度日尺度模型及不同气候区的适宜度等级评价指标。通过与旬尺度模型对比,阐明不同时间尺度模型在中短时灾害天气影响下的气候适宜度状况。结果表明:①气候适宜度日尺度评价模型能够反映水稻生长的气候条件及对其生长发育的影响,水稻营养生长阶段的气候适宜度与株高的相关系数(R)为0.722(P<0.01);生殖生长阶段的气候适宜度与水稻产量的相关系数(R)为0.669(P<0.01);②根据气候适宜度评价指标确定水稻气候适宜度等级,揭示在突发洪涝灾害的情况下,日尺度比旬尺度模型更能诠释水稻生长的气候适宜度状况。

关键词: 水稻, 气候适宜度, 评价模型, 日尺度, 辽宁省

Abstract:

One of the key links in the study of the relationship between rice and climate is the selection of the time scale. To evaluate climate suitability of rice under short-term disaster scenarios,we considered factors such as air temperature and sunshine duration in Liaoning Province from 1961 to 2010 and assigned weights to these factors according to path analysis theory and climate yield data. A daily model was constructed to represent climate suitability for rice production,and climate suitability assessment criteria were developed for different climate regions. Comparing this newly developed daily model with a 10-day model expounds the climate suitability of different time scale models under short- to medium-term disaster weather. The results showed that the daily climate suitability model was able to provide an accurate representation of climate conditions and their effect on rice growth. The daily model also indicated that climate suitability during the vegetative growth period is related to plant height,with a correlation coefficient R of 0.722. Climate suitability during the reproductive growth period is also related to rice yield,with a correlation coefficient R of 0.669. The degree of suitability of each climatic region was determined using climate suitability assessment criteria established in this paper. The results indicate that,in the case of unexpected flooding,the daily model performs better than the 10-day model at evaluating climate suitability during the rice growth period. Besides climatic conditions,the agricultural production of rice is also related to many factors,so it is necessary to further study the comprehensive suitability evaluation model of rice production combining climate and topography and soil type and popularize it across a wider range of space.

Key words: rice, climate suitability, evaluation model, intraday, Liaoning Province