江苏省城市化与经济增长的脱钩研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.08.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

现阶段城市化与经济的快速发展特征显著,研究两者之间的关系对于协调可持续发展具有重要意义。本文以江苏省为例,应用脱钩理论剖析1997-2015年城市化（人口城市化、土地城市化）与经济（GDP、非农GDP、第三产业GDP）发展间的动态变化关系,揭示其脱钩状态的时空差异。研究结果表明：①全省人口城市化水平较高,自南向北差异明显;土地城市化水平较稳提升,苏南地区发展快于苏中苏北地区;②2006年前人口城市化、2009年前土地城市化与GDP年度脱钩系数波动较大,呈强脱钩、弱脱钩、扩张负脱钩与扩张连接四种类型,人口城市化与GDP低水平协调发展区域主要位于苏南苏中地区,低水平城市化冒进区域主要位于苏北地区,土地城市化与GDP年度脱钩状态分布全省较为均衡;之后全省高达96.58%的数据稳定在弱脱钩区域,经济增长对城市化依赖程度正不断减弱;③1997-2015年、1997-2009年与2009-2015年时间段尺度下人口城市化、土地城市化与GDP脱钩状态较一致,总体波动不如年度数据剧烈,苏南地区全部为弱脱钩状态,苏中苏北大部分为弱脱钩状态,城市化与GDP脱钩效应较为均衡与理想;④城市化与GDP、非农GDP、第三产业GDP脱钩状态变化规律较为一致,城市化与第三产业GDP脱钩效应略弱于非农GDP。

关键词: 人口城市化, 土地城市化, 经济增长, 脱钩, 江苏省

Abstract:

Rapid development of urbanization and economy has been significant characteristics in China. The relationship between urbanization and economic development is now an important scientific issue. Decoupling methods were used here to analyze the relationship among urbanization（population urbanization,land urbanization）and economic growth（GDP,non-agricultural industry GDP,tertiary industry GDP）in 13 cities in Jiangsu Province,China from 1997 to 2015. Regular pattern of dynamic change,and time and space differences in decoupling status and characteristics were researched. We found that the population urbanization development level was high and distribution difference. Land urbanization development was comparatively steady,and southern regions were ahead of other regions. The annual decoupling coefficient between population urbanization and GDP before 2006 and land urbanization and GDP before 2009 fluctuated greatly. Decoupling types contained strong decoupling,weak decoupling,expansion negative decoupling and expansion connection. The coordinated level between population urbanization and GDP in the southern and central regions was low; northern regions have low urbanization. The decoupling state of land urbanization and GDP were balanced distribution. Up to 96.58% of data were stable and in a weak decoupling state. The dependence of economic growth on population urbanization and land urbanization was diminishing. The decoupling of population urbanization,land urbanization and GDP were consistent from 1997 to 2009,2009-2015 and 1997-2015,and the fluctuation was not as severe as for annual data. All southern regions and most other regions were in a weak decoupling area. The decoupling status among urbanization and GDP were balanced and ideal. The decoupling state changes of urbanization and GDP,non-agricultural industry GDP,and tertiary industry GDP were relatively consistent. The tertiary industry GDP decoupling effect was weaker than non-agricultural industry GDP.

Key words: population urbanization, land urbanization, economic growth, decoupling, Jiangsu Province

茅天颖, 濮励杰, 许艳, 朱明, 蔡芳芳. 江苏省城市化与经济增长的脱钩研究[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(8): 1560-1572.

Tianying MAO, Lijie PU, Yan XU, Ming ZHU, Fangfang CAI. Decoupling analysis between urbanization and economic growth in Jiangsu Province[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(8): 1560-1572.

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脱钩状态		△UI	△UG	EDI	城市化与经济效益脱钩特征
脱钩	强脱钩	<0	>0	EDI<0	表现为城市化水平下降,经济仍呈现不断增长态势
	弱脱钩	>0	>0	0<EDI<e₁	表现为城市化水平与经济效益均呈增长态势,且经济增长速度大于城市化水平增长速度
	衰退脱钩	<0	<0	EDI>e₂	表现为城市化水平与经济效益均呈减少态势,且经济降低速度小于城市化水平降低速度
负脱钩	扩张负脱钩	>0	>0	EDI>e₂	表现为城市化水平与经济效益均呈增长态势,且经济增长速度小于城市化水平增长速度
	强负脱钩	>0	<0	EDI<0	表现为城市化水平上升,经济发展反呈下降态势
	弱负脱钩	<0	<0	0<EDI<e₁	表现为城市化水平与经济效益均呈下降态势,且经济下降速度大于城市化水平下降速度
连接	扩张连接	>0	>0	e₁<EDI<e₂	表现为城市化水平与经济效益保持相对同步增长态势
	衰退连接	<0	<0	e₁<EDI<e₂	表现为城市化水平与经济效益保持相对同步下降态势