广东省城市旅游效率的时空特征及其增长机制

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.08.11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着城市旅游业在优化就业结构、改善基础设施建设、拓宽就业渠道等方面发挥出重要的作用,政府开始高度重视旅游效率的提高。本文基于Bootstrap-DEA纠偏模型,对2001-2014年广东省21个地级市的城市旅游效率进行测算,采用Moran's I系数和Geary'C比率进行空间自相关检验,并利用考虑空间异质性的地理加权回归（GWR）模型,对广东的城市旅游效率进行实证研究。研究结果表明：①从纠偏效率的数值特征看,广东省各个城市间旅游效率水平差异明显,大多城市总技术效率较高,但为DEA无效的城市数量在增多;②从空间全局视角看,广东省城市旅游效率的空间自相关检验出现由负效应转变为显著的正效应的趋势,在局部视角下具有明显的局域集群趋势;③相比全局线性回归（OLS）模型,bi-square权函数下的局部空间回归（GWR）模型拟合优度最高,解释能力和精度也更强;④GWR模型能有效识别城市旅游效率增长机制的空间非平稳性,本文基于不同区域驱动因素作用的异质性,提出“广东五大旅游板块”空间格局的差异化发展策略来探讨城市旅游效率的驱动因素和作用机理。

关键词: 空间计量, 城市旅游效率, 时空特征, 增长机制, 广东省

Abstract:

Urban tourism plays an important role in optimizing the structure of employment,improving infrastructure construction and broadening employment channels. With rapid tourism development in our country,the government attaches great importance to improving tourism efficiency. We employed a Bootstrap-DEA model to analyze tourism development efficiency and changes in total factor productivity in 21 cities Guangdong,China during 2001-2014. We analyzed spatial-temporal characteristics of urban tourism efficiency through spatial statistical analysis using Moran's Index and Geary’s Ratio,and using a geographically weighted regression model including spatial heterogeneity. The results show that it is necessary to solve the problem using Bootstrap-DEA. From the point view of the mathematical features of efficiency,urban tourism efficiency levels were different in Guangdong：the province as a whole has relatively high urban tourism efficiency,but the efficiency is becoming inefficient. The spatial-temporal characteristics of urban tourism efficiency of Guangdong have evolved from irrelevant to relevant from 2001 to 2014. A key finding was that there is an obvious local clustering trend for urban tourism efficiency. The GWR model based on a bi-square weighted function exhibited better explaining ability. The Moran scatter plots of urban tourism efficiency were used as a reference. Compared with the traditional ordinary least square model based on ‘stationary hypothesis embedding’,the geographical weighted regression model based on ‘non-stationary’ revealed profound spatial differentiation factors. The GWR model based on bi-square weighted function exhibited better model goodness and explaining ability. The scheme of spatial strategic pattern optimization of urban tourism,namely,‘five sections of tourism in Guangdong’ is discussed and a differentiation development strategy constructed. These findings reveal that geographical weighted regression can reconstruct the spatial-temporal nonstationary growth mechanism of urban tourism efficiency.

Key words: spatial statistics, urban tourism efficiency, spatial-temporal characteristics, growth mechanism, Guangdong Province

游诗咏, 林仲源, 韩兆洲. 广东省城市旅游效率的时空特征及其增长机制[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(8): 1545-1559.

Shiyong YOU, Zhongyuan LIN, Zhaozhou HAN. Spatial-temporal characteristics and growth mechanism of urban tourism efficiency in Guangdong Province[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(8): 1545-1559.

图/表 9

图1

表1

表2

表3

图2

表4

全局线性回归模型估计结果"

变量	参数估计值
Intercept	1.217***（5.957）
RES	-0.084 （-1.641）
TF	-0.153 （-1.942）
PTS	0.143** （2.570）
STR	0.360** （0.651）
TRA	0.045 （0.737）
GOV	0.363** （0.690）
$R 2$	0.311
残差平方和	0.192
F-statistic	2.506
P-value	0.073
AIC	-28.626

表4

表5

GWR模型估计结果"

变量	GWR模型（高斯权函数）				GWR模型（bi-square权函数）
变量	上四分位数	中位数	下四分位数	全局估计	上四分位数	中位数	下四分位数	全局估计
Intercept	1.219	1.224	1.226	1.217	1.226	1.248	1.259	1.217
RES	-0.086	-0.084	-0.082	-0.084	-0.092	-0.086	-0.074	-0.083
TF	-0.159	-0.155	-0.153	-0.153	-0.179	-0.161	-0.152	-0.153
PTS	0.142	0.143	0.143	0.143	0.137	0.140	0.144	0.143
STR	0.370	0.377	0.397	0.360	0.403	0.438	0.528	0.362
TRA	0.044	0.045	0.047	0.045	0.042	0.046	0.056	0.045
GOV	0.337	0.343	0.349	0.363	0.239	0.267	0.303	0.363
$R 2$	0.537				0.592
残差平方和	0.141				0.124
AIC	-38.128				-39.532
Sigma	0.102				0.100
带宽	7.053				7.354

表5

图3

表6

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城市	综合效率		置信区间
城市	传统DEA	修正DEA	下界	上界
广州	1.000	0.885	0.879	0.888
深圳	1.000	0.883	0.877	0.886
珠海	1.000	0.886	0.881	0.889
汕头	0.808	0.748	0.742	0.751
佛山	0.754	0.714	0.708	0.717
韶关	0.563	0.543	0.537	0.546
河源	0.739	0.719	0.712	0.722
梅州	1.000	0.914	0.908	0.917
惠州	1.000	0.942	0.936	0.945
汕尾	1.000	0.885	0.879	0.889
东莞	1.000	0.925	0.919	0.928
中山	1.000	0.918	0.911	0.921
江门	1.000	0.886	0.88	0.889
阳江	0.898	0.828	0.822	0.831
湛江	1.000	0.903	0.897	0.906
茂名	1.000	0.901	0.895	0.904
肇庆	1.000	0.905	0.898	0.908
清远	0.543	0.503	0.497	0.506
潮州	1.000	0.922	0.916	0.925
揭阳	1.000	0.902	0.896	0.904
云浮	1.000	0.884	0.878	0.887

年份	Moran's I系数方法			Geary'C比率方法
年份	Moran's I系数	标准差	P值	Geary'C比率	标准差	P值
2001年	-0.089	-0.475	0.682	0.869	0.764	0.222
2004年	-0.190	-0.955	0.830	1.098	-0.635	0.737
2007年	-0.257	-1.406	0.920	1.150	-0.964	0.832
2008年	-0.180	-0.901	0.616	0.995	0.028	0.248
2009年	-0.215	-1.136	0.872	1.067	-0.432	0.667
2010年	-0.163	-0.788	0.784	0.969	0.197	0.221
2011年	-0.249	-1.278	0.899	1.147	-0.965	0.832
2012年	0.021	0.180	0.098	0.901	0.011	0.100
2013年	0.149	1.306	0.095	0.769	1.494	0.067
2014年	0.348	2.804	0.002	0.595	2.571	0.005

城市	局部空间Moran's I系数方法			G统计量	城市	局部空间Moran's I系数方法			G统计量
城市	Moran's I系数			Z统计量	城市	P值	Moran's I系数	Z统计量	P值
广州	-0.077	-0.083	1.000	-0.358	中山	0.140	0.578	1.000	0.869
深圳	0.228	0.754	1.000	1.611	江门	0.027	0.209	1.000	0.347
珠海	0.192	0.485	1.000	0.997	阳江	-0.036	0.029	1.000	0.664
汕头	-0.459	-0.657	1.000	0.295	湛江	0.283	0.370	0.711	0.772
佛山	0.066	0.354	1.000	-0.639	茂名	0.147	0.395	1.000	0.740
韶关	4.614	7.485	0.000	-3.784	肇庆	-0.636	-1.178	1.000	-1.556
河源	0.139	0.447	1.000	-0.774	清远	1.759	4.289	0.000	-2.655
梅州	0.051	0.203	1.000	0.475	潮州	0.097	0.296	1.000	0.605
惠州	0.154	0.555	0.000	0.828	揭阳	0.130	0.426	1.000	0.753
汕尾	0.053	0.208	1.000	0.434	云浮	0.028	0.212	1.000	0.355
东莞	0.415	1.103	0.675	1.509

发展板块	主要增长机制和约束	发展策略	城市
珠三角广府文化板块	产业结构的优化	加快大型景区项目落地后的配套完善,推动旅游购物设施、旅游娱乐设施建设,依靠广府文化,打造都市休闲度假精品旅游路线	广州、深圳、佛山、中山、东莞、珠海、惠州、江门
粤东潮汕文化板块	旅游接待设施规模“投入冗余”问题严重;产业结构优化的推动	科学合理地规划和指导星级酒店等旅游接待设施建设;发展第三产业,优化产业结构,利用潮汕文化资源,实现旅游服务精细化	汕尾、揭阳、潮州、汕头
粤东北客家文化板块	城市基础设施的完善;政府规模和投入的推动	依靠高铁等交通先发优势,完善区域中心城市的基础配套与旅游设施建设,打造客家文化-山水旅游路线	梅州、河源
粤西滨海百越风情板块	旅游资源利用率的约束	科学规划,减少低层次的旅游资源开发,建立独特的旅游品牌,实现生态旅游可持续发展	湛江、茂名、阳江、云浮
粤北南岭生态文化板块	政府规模和投入的推动	政府加大旅游支持力度,并通过招商引资补充开发旅游资源的资金不足,打造山区旅游观光基地	韶关、清远、肇庆