资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (8): 1511-1521.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.08.08
收稿日期:
2016-12-20
修回日期:
2017-03-05
出版日期:
2017-08-20
发布日期:
2017-08-20
作者简介:
作者简介:柏玲,女,河南新蔡人,博士,讲师,主要研究方向为环境变化与区域可持续发展研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Ling BAI1(), Zuhan LIU2,3, Zhongsheng CHEN4(
), Jianhua XU5
Received:
2016-12-20
Revised:
2017-03-05
Online:
2017-08-20
Published:
2017-08-20
摘要:
非线性是现代水文学研究的重要前沿问题之一,对揭示水文系统变化规律及其复杂性具有重要意义。基于开都河源流区气象和水文站1960-2012年实测数据,采用集合经验模态分解方法,对研究期内开都河年径流时间序列进行多尺度分析,并探讨其在不同时间尺度上的非线性变化特征及其对气候因子的多尺度响应。研究结果表明:①近50年来,开都河年径流整体上呈现出显著的非线性增加趋势,且其变化在年际尺度上表现出准2~3a和准4~5a的周期性波动,在年代际尺度上表现出准10~11a和准26~27a的周期性变化;②各周期分量的方差贡献率表明,年际振荡在径流长期变化中占据主导地位,年代际尺度在径流变化过程中也起着重要作用;③重构的径流年际变化能够较为详细地描述原始径流序列在整个研究时段的波动状况,二者在变化趋势上基本是一致的;重构的径流年代际变化则有效揭示了开都河径流量在1995年出现了由负距平到正距平的转折;④在重构的年际尺度和年代际尺度上,降水与径流的相关性都强于气温、潜在蒸发与径流的相关性,说明降水是影响开都河径流变化的决定性因素;而在年代际尺度上降水、气温和潜在蒸发的相关性都要明显强于年际尺度,表明年代际尺度是评价该区径流对气候波动响应过程的较佳尺度。
柏玲, 刘祖涵, 陈忠升, 徐建华. 开都河源流区径流的非线性变化特征及其对气候波动的响应[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(8): 1511-1521.
Ling BAI, Zuhan LIU, Zhongsheng CHEN, Jianhua XU. Runoff nonlinear variation and responses to climate fluctuation in the headwater region of the Kaidu River[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(8): 1511-1521.
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