开都河源流区径流的非线性变化特征及其对气候波动的响应

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.08.08

资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (8): 1511-1521.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.08.08

开都河源流区径流的非线性变化特征及其对气候波动的响应

柏玲¹(), 刘祖涵^2,³, 陈忠升⁴(), 徐建华⁵

1. 南昌大学经济管理学院,南昌 330031
2. 江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室,南昌 330022
3. 南昌工程学院江西省水信息协同感知与智能处理重点实验室,南昌 330099
4. 西华师范大学国土资源学院,南充 637002
5. 华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海 200241

收稿日期:2016-12-20 修回日期:2017-03-05 出版日期:2017-08-20 发布日期:2017-08-20
作者简介:
作者简介：柏玲,女,河南新蔡人,博士,讲师,主要研究方向为环境变化与区域可持续发展研究。E-mail：bling1987yy@163.com
基金资助:
基金项目：中国博士后科学基金项目（2016M600515）;江西省水信息协同感知与智能处理重点实验室开放基金项目（2016WICSIP012）;江西省科技厅重点研发计划项目（20161BBF60061）

Runoff nonlinear variation and responses to climate fluctuation in the headwater region of the Kaidu River

Ling BAI¹(), Zuhan LIU^2,³, Zhongsheng CHEN⁴(), Jianhua XU⁵

1. School of Economics and Management,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China
2. Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research,Ministry of Education,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,China
3. Jiangxi Province Key Laboratory of Water Information Cooperative Sensing and Intelligent Processing,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China
4. School of Land and Resources,China West Normal University,Nanchong 637002,China
5. School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China

Received:2016-12-20 Revised:2017-03-05 Online:2017-08-20 Published:2017-08-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

非线性是现代水文学研究的重要前沿问题之一,对揭示水文系统变化规律及其复杂性具有重要意义。基于开都河源流区气象和水文站1960-2012年实测数据,采用集合经验模态分解方法,对研究期内开都河年径流时间序列进行多尺度分析,并探讨其在不同时间尺度上的非线性变化特征及其对气候因子的多尺度响应。研究结果表明：①近50年来,开都河年径流整体上呈现出显著的非线性增加趋势,且其变化在年际尺度上表现出准2~3a和准4~5a的周期性波动,在年代际尺度上表现出准10~11a和准26~27a的周期性变化;②各周期分量的方差贡献率表明,年际振荡在径流长期变化中占据主导地位,年代际尺度在径流变化过程中也起着重要作用;③重构的径流年际变化能够较为详细地描述原始径流序列在整个研究时段的波动状况,二者在变化趋势上基本是一致的;重构的径流年代际变化则有效揭示了开都河径流量在1995年出现了由负距平到正距平的转折;④在重构的年际尺度和年代际尺度上,降水与径流的相关性都强于气温、潜在蒸发与径流的相关性,说明降水是影响开都河径流变化的决定性因素;而在年代际尺度上降水、气温和潜在蒸发的相关性都要明显强于年际尺度,表明年代际尺度是评价该区径流对气候波动响应过程的较佳尺度。

关键词: 开都河源流区, 径流, 非线性变化, 集合经验模态分解, 气候波动, 多尺度响应

Abstract:

Nonlinearity is one of important frontier issues in the field of modern hydrology. It is of great significance to discover the variation and the complexity of the hydrological system. On the basis of hydrological and meteorological data in the headwater region of the Kaidu River from 1960 to 2012,multi-scale characteristics of runoff variability were analyzed using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method to investigate nonlinear change characteristics of runoff at different time scales and multi-scale responses to climate fluctuation. We found that in the past 50 years,the overall runoff of Kaidu River in Xinjiang has exhibited a significant non-linear increasing trend,and changes have manifested at quasi-2~3 and quasi-4~5 year inter-annual scales and showed quasi-10~11 and quasi-26~27 year inter-decadal scales. Variance contribution rates of each periodic component showed that inter-annual change held a dominant position in the long-term change of runoff,and inter-decadal change also played an important role in the overall runoff change for Kaidu River. Reconstructed inter-annual variation describes the fluctuation state of original runoff during the study period,that is to say the trends of both are basically the same. The reconstructed inter-decadal variability shows that the runoff of Kaidu River underwent a significant transition in 1995 from low to high,namely the state of runoff anomaly shifting from a negative phase to a positive abundance water period. In addition,we found that the correlation between runoff and precipitation is more relevant and significant at both the inter-annual and inter-decadal scales compared to the correlation between runoff and temperature and potential evaporation,indicating that precipitation is the decisive factor for changes in runoff. Corrections between runoff and precipitation,temperature and potential evaporation are more significant and relevant at the inter-decadal scale than inter-annual scale,suggesting that the inter-decadal scale is more suitable for investigating responses of runoff dynamics to climate fluctuation.

Key words: the headwater region of the Kaidu River, runoff, nonlinear variation, ensemble empirical mode decomposition, climate fluctuation, multi-scale responses

柏玲, 刘祖涵, 陈忠升, 徐建华. 开都河源流区径流的非线性变化特征及其对气候波动的响应[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(8): 1511-1521.

Ling BAI, Zuhan LIU, Zhongsheng CHEN, Jianhua XU. Runoff nonlinear variation and responses to climate fluctuation in the headwater region of the Kaidu River[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(8): 1511-1521.

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	周期 /a	显著性检验 /%	方差贡献率 /%	与径流距平的相关系数
IMF1	2.65	80~90	25.96	0.49**
IMF2	4.82	>95	21.26	0.32**
IMF3	10.60	>95	20.71	0.37**
IMF4	26.58	>95	18.31	0.63**
RES			13.76	0.46**

时间尺度	径流 vs. 降水	径流vs. 气温	径流vs. 潜在蒸发
年际尺度	0.651**	0.056	-0.173
年代际尺度	0.872**	0.695**	-0.672**

开都河源流区径流的非线性变化特征及其对气候波动的响应

Runoff nonlinear variation and responses to climate fluctuation in the headwater region of the Kaidu River

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