基于复杂网络理论的中国石油流动格局及供应安全分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.08.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文从资源流动视角并借助复杂性网络方法,定量刻画中国石油资源供应网络和时空格局变化趋势,旨在通过构建石油资源供应安全模型,模拟不同供应中断情景下中国石油资源供应安全衰减轨迹,从而揭示中国石油资源供应安全演进特征及其主要影响因素。研究表明：①1990-2015年期间中国对世界石油资源贸易网络中其他各国的影响逐步增强,而世界出口国对于中国石油资源进口的影响不断下降,中国石油资源网络物资传输效率呈先降后升趋势;②中国石油资源进口来源地从亚太地区转移到中东、非洲、俄罗斯、中亚以及美洲地区;③中国石油资源供应安全历经快速提升后进入稳定发展阶段,进口来源国政治稳定性是影响中国石油资源供应安全的关键要素;④目标性中断对中国石油资源供应安全的危害十分显著,防范主要进口来源国的目标性中断对于保障中国石油资源供应安全至关重要。模拟结果还显示,在进口来源区域及国家层面实施多元化战略,如加大对俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、阿塞拜疆以及美洲地区的石油资源进口,不仅有助于分散风险,也有助于提升中国石油资源贸易网络的传输效率,保障中国石油资源供应安全。

关键词: 石油资源贸易网络, 资源流动, 时空格局, 复杂网络, 供应安全, 中国

Abstract:

The increasing complexity of oil flow within oil trade networks has become a key factor affecting oil supply security. Here,we constructed China's oil trade network to analyze the overall features and patterns of oil flow using complex network theory. From 1990-2015,the influence of China on network trade partners gradually increased,while exporting countries followed the opposite pattern. The transmission efficiency of China’s trade network followed a downward trend and then slightly increased. China's main oil import sources transferred from the Asia-Pacific region to the Middle East（51%）,Africa（19%）,Russia and Central Asia（15%）and the Americas （13%）in 2015. We estimated oil supply security from 1993-2015 using different evaluation models and found it was 23 in 1993 and 47 in 1999,peaking at 48 in 2004 before falling to 42 in 2015. The political risk rating of exporting countries was the most important factor affecting China's oil supply security. We simulated attenuation in supply security across China's oil trade network under two different attacks scenarios：a random attack and targeted attack. We found that China's oil trade network is fragile to targeted attacks and would experience a rapid decline in oil supply security;the network is robust to a random attack. Accordingly,the key for China safeguarding its oil supply security is how to prevent a targeted attack. These findings have significant implications on the implementation of oil import diversification policy,for example,increasing oil imports from Russia,Kazakhstan,Azerbaijan and the Americas,that are critical to assuring China's oil supply security in coming decades.

Key words: oil trade network, oil flow, spatial-temporal features, complex network theory, supply security, China

刘立涛, 沈镭, 刘晓洁, 成升魁, 钟帅, 曹植, 张超, 孔含笑, 孙艳姿. 基于复杂网络理论的中国石油流动格局及供应安全分析[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(8): 1431-1443.

Litao LIU, Lei SHEN, Xiaojie LIU, Shengkui CHENG, Shuai ZHONG, Zhi CAO, Chao ZHANG, Hanxiao KONG, Yanzi SUN. Spatial-temporal features of China's oil trade network and supply security simulation[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(8): 1431-1443.

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