资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (8): 1431-1443.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.08.01
• • 下一篇
刘立涛1,2(), 沈镭1,2, 刘晓洁1(
), 成升魁1, 钟帅1,2, 曹植1,2, 张超1,2, 孔含笑1,2, 孙艳姿1,2
收稿日期:
2017-02-10
修回日期:
2017-07-05
出版日期:
2017-08-20
发布日期:
2017-08-20
作者简介:
作者简介:刘立涛,女,湖南岳阳人,博士,助理研究员,主要研究领域为能源经济与安全研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Litao LIU1,2(), Lei SHEN1,2, Xiaojie LIU1(
), Shengkui CHENG1, Shuai ZHONG1,2, Zhi CAO1,2, Chao ZHANG1,2, Hanxiao KONG1,2, Yanzi SUN1,2
Received:
2017-02-10
Revised:
2017-07-05
Online:
2017-08-20
Published:
2017-08-20
摘要:
本文从资源流动视角并借助复杂性网络方法,定量刻画中国石油资源供应网络和时空格局变化趋势,旨在通过构建石油资源供应安全模型,模拟不同供应中断情景下中国石油资源供应安全衰减轨迹,从而揭示中国石油资源供应安全演进特征及其主要影响因素。研究表明:①1990-2015年期间中国对世界石油资源贸易网络中其他各国的影响逐步增强,而世界出口国对于中国石油资源进口的影响不断下降,中国石油资源网络物资传输效率呈先降后升趋势;②中国石油资源进口来源地从亚太地区转移到中东、非洲、俄罗斯、中亚以及美洲地区;③中国石油资源供应安全历经快速提升后进入稳定发展阶段,进口来源国政治稳定性是影响中国石油资源供应安全的关键要素;④目标性中断对中国石油资源供应安全的危害十分显著,防范主要进口来源国的目标性中断对于保障中国石油资源供应安全至关重要。模拟结果还显示,在进口来源区域及国家层面实施多元化战略,如加大对俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、阿塞拜疆以及美洲地区的石油资源进口,不仅有助于分散风险,也有助于提升中国石油资源贸易网络的传输效率,保障中国石油资源供应安全。
刘立涛, 沈镭, 刘晓洁, 成升魁, 钟帅, 曹植, 张超, 孔含笑, 孙艳姿. 基于复杂网络理论的中国石油流动格局及供应安全分析[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(8): 1431-1443.
Litao LIU, Lei SHEN, Xiaojie LIU, Shengkui CHENG, Shuai ZHONG, Zhi CAO, Chao ZHANG, Hanxiao KONG, Yanzi SUN. Spatial-temporal features of China's oil trade network and supply security simulation[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(8): 1431-1443.
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