资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (7): 1383-1393.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.07.15

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中国城市NO2浓度的时空分布及社会经济驱动力

姚尧1,2(), 李江风1,2(), 胡涛3, 杨媛媛4, 丁镭5   

  1. 1.中国地质大学(武汉)公共管理学院,武汉 430074
    2. 国土资源部法律评价工程重点实验室,武汉 430074
    3. 中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,武汉 430074
    4. 华北水利水电大学管理与经济学院,郑州 450046
    5. 宁波职业技术学院工商学院,宁波 315800
  • 收稿日期:2017-01-09 修回日期:2017-05-05 出版日期:2017-07-20 发布日期:2017-07-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:姚尧,男,贵州榕江人,博士生,主要研究方向为土地利用转型与环境经济。E-mail:yyy@cug.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国土资源公益性行业科研专项(201511004-4)

Spatiotemporal variation in NO2 concentrations and socioeconomic driving forces in Chinese cities

Yao YAO1,2(), Jiangfeng LI1,2(), Tao HU3, Yuanyuan YANG4, Lei DING5   

  1. 1. School of Public Administration,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China
    2. Key Laboratory of Legal Assessment Project,Ministry of Land and Resources,Wuhan 430074,China
    3. Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China
    4. School of Economics and Management,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China
    5. School of Industrial and Commercial,Ningbo Polytechnic, Ningbo 315800,China
  • Received:2017-01-09 Revised:2017-05-05 Online:2017-07-20 Published:2017-07-20

摘要:

城市空气质量改善是当前中国社会经济转型发展过程中的重要目标。基于中国274个地级及以上城市2004-2013年以来的监测数据对NO2浓度的时空特征进行分析,并通过空间计量经济模型构建了社会经济要素对城市NO2污染影响的动力机制。结果表明:①10年间,城市NO2浓度年均值整体呈现先波动下降再增加的“U”形曲线特征,NO2浓度年达标率由2004年78.1%降至2013年最低值73.0%,NO2污染的控制总体不稳定。②城市NO2浓度分布格局总体发生一定变化,并在局部区域有显著改变。京津冀、山东半岛、长三角等东部经济发达城市是主要NO2高污染区,并存在显著的空间正相关关系(集聚状态)。③解析了城市NO2浓度分布变化的社会经济驱动力。10年间,城市经济增长依然是影响NO2浓度和变化的主要原因,并呈“U”型曲线特征;人口城市化水平、二产比重和机动车数量激增是恶化城市NO2浓度的重要因素。空间自回归系数值为0.236 659,表明城市的NO2浓度除受自身影响外,还受相邻城市的溢出扩散影响。未来,需继续加强氮氧化物减排控制,并在NO2治理过程中注重城市间的联合防控。

关键词: NO2浓度, 时空演化, 社会经济, 驱动力, 空间计量模型, 城市, 中国

Abstract:

With China's socioeconomic development and transition,a significant goal of improving urban air quality remains. Using monitoring data for cities at the prefecture level and above from 2004 to 2013,we analyzed temporal and spatial characteristics of NO2 quality concentration. A dynamical mechanism of socioeconomic influencers on urban NO2 pollution was constructed based on a Spatial Econometric Model. We found that annual average values in NO2 concentration varied along a U curve during 10 years in urban areas. P-values changed from 78.1%(214 cities)in 2004 to the lowest at 73.0%(200 cities)in 2013. The control of NO2 pollution was unstable. The total spatial distribution of NO2 pollution presented certain change during study period, and there were significant changes in some local zones. The economically developed eastern cities such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Shandong Peninsula and Yangtze River Delta were the main pollutant regions for NO2 in China,and there was a significant spatial positive correlation. The socioeconomic driving forces of NO2 concentration distribution change were analyzed. In the past 10 years,urban economic growth was the main factor affecting NO2 concentration and variation,and it was characterized by a U curve. The population urbanization level,proportion of secondary production and number of motor vehicles were important factors that increased urban NO2 concentrations. The spatial autoregressive coefficient is 0.236 659,indicating that the NO2 concentration in a city depends not only on its own concentration but also on the pollution of neighboring cities. In the future,we need to strengthen the control of NOX emission reduction and pay attention to prevention and control between cities during the NO2 governance process.

Key words: NO2 concentration, spatiotemporal variations, social economy, driving forces, spatial economic model, city, China