资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (7): 1361-1370.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.07.13

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京津冀区域公路客运交通碳排放时空特征与调控预测

马海涛1,2(), 康雷3,4   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101
    2. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101
    3. 河南大学黄河文明传承与现代文明建设河南省协同创新中心,开封 475001
    4. 中国科学院大学,北京100049
  • 收稿日期:2017-01-21 修回日期:2017-04-27 出版日期:2017-07-20 发布日期:2017-07-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:马海涛,男,山东滕州市人,副研究员,硕士生导师,研究方向为城市地理与规划。E-mail:maht@igsnrr.ac.n

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重大项目(41590842);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71433008)

Spatial and temporal characteristics and prediction of carbon emissions from road traffic in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Haitao MA1,2(), Lei KANG3,4   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China
    2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China
    3. Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization of Henan Province,Henan University,Kaifeng 475001,China
    4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
  • Received:2017-01-21 Revised:2017-04-27 Online:2017-07-20 Published:2017-07-20

摘要:

运用机动车燃料消耗的碳排放直接测算方法,对京津冀区域2005-2014年公路客运交通碳排放进行了测算和时空分析;并借助LEAP模型,设定了基准增长、比例控制和总量控制三种调控情景,对区域未来的公路客运交通碳排放进行了预测和调控设想。结果表明:①从时间演变来看,虽然单位乘客碳排放强度大大降低,但区域总体公路客运交通碳排放绝对量却在稳步快速增长,区域碳减排压力持续增加;②从空间分异来看,京津二市碳排放一直处于领先地位,但河北11市碳排放的稳步提升也使河北省碳排放在京津冀区域中的比重大大抬升;③预测发现总量控制情景较比例控制情景有更大碳减排幅度,但两种控制情景的区域碳排放总量至2030年都会保持增长态势,因此区域公路客运交通的调控需要科学设计并加大力度。本研究可为区域交通管治政策制定和碳减排提供参考。

关键词: 公路客运交通, 碳排放, LEAP模型, 情景预测, 京津冀

Abstract:

In the 21st century,China entered an era of highway passenger transport,which is bound by regional energy supply and that strongly impacts carbon emissions. With the rapid increase in the number of private cars,road passenger transport has made a significant contribution to carbon emissions,and future contributions to regional carbon emissions will increase further. This is undoubtedly a huge challenge for China's carbon reduction goals. By using the bottom-up approach for estimating carbon emissions,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (hereafter,ereafte Jing-Jin-Ji)of highway passenger transport carbon emissions were estimated and analyzed from 2005 to 2014. With the help of a LEAP model,we set three kinds of regulations including benchmark growth,proportional control and total amount of control. The future of regional highway passenger transport carbon emissions is forecasted. We found that from the evolution of time,although per capita carbon emission intensity is greatly reduced,regional overall highway passenger transport carbon emissions grow steadily,and regional carbon reduction pressure increases. From a spatial differentiation perspective,the carbon emissions of the two cities Beijing and Tianjin is leading. The steady rise of carbon emissions in the 11 cities of Hebei also meant that the proportion of carbon emissions in the Jing-Jin-Ji region in Hebei increased. We predict that the total quantity control scenario is a proportional control situation and more carbon emissions,but no matter the regional carbon emission reductions, carbon emissions will keep rising until 2030. The design of highway passenger transport control requires scientific areas and greater effort. These data should be used to improve highway passenger transport policy and regional carbon reduction in China.

Key words: road transport, carbon emissions, LEAP Model, forecast, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region