新型城镇化背景下中国区域生态效率分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.07.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新型城镇化要体现绿色、低碳、节能等特点,生态文明成为区域新型城镇化建设推进的必然选择。本文基于2006-2015年中国30个省区的面板数据,首先采用考虑非期望产出的超效率DEA模型计算了中国省际区域生态效率,进一步利用Malmquist-Luenberger指数对生态效率进行分解,探寻其变化的内在驱动因素,最后建立城镇化背景下外部环境因素对区域生态效率影响的面板Tobit模型,得出城镇化对区域生态效率的实质影响。结果表明：①中国省际区域生态效率整体呈现先上升后下降的趋势,并且存在由东部向中西部递减的格局;②技术进步是提升区域生态效率的关键因素,规模效率是抑制生态效率提升的主要因素,且规模效率对三大地区的影响具有区域特征;③城镇化率对东部生态效率存在先负向后正向的作用,而对中部和西部还未体现促进作用。产业结构、技术进步、能源结构和环境政策等因素也从不同方向、程度上对区域生态效率产生影响。据此,从优化产能结构、推进节能减排措施等方面提出了提高中国省际区域生态效率的对策建议。

关键词: 区域生态效率, 城镇化, US-DEA模型, ML指数, 面板Tobit模型

Abstract:

New-type urbanization should reflect features of green, low-carbon and energy saving, therefore ecological civilization has become a necessary select to construct regional new-type urbanization. This paper has firstly utilized super-efficiency DEA model considering undesirable outputs to calculate the regional eco-efficiency of 30 provinces in China excepting Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet, using statistics collected from year 2006 to 2015. And further use the Malmquist-Luenberger index to decompose the eco-efficiency and explore the internal driving factors of its change. Finally, the panel Tobit model of regional ecological efficiency under the background of urbanization is established to study the substantial impact on the regional eco-efficiency. The results show that：①the average level of China’s eco-efficiency has an increase then a reduction which shows a decreasing tendency from eastern area to central and western areas;②the technological progress is a key factor in enhancing regional eco-efficiency, while the scale efficiency is the main factor to suppress the improvement of eco- efficiency, meanwhile, the effect of scale efficiency on the three regions has regional characteristics: the eastern and western parts are in a scale of non-economic stage and the central part in the stage of economies of scale;③the urbanization rate has a positive and then a negative effect on the eco-efficiency of the eastern, but this does not exist in the west and central during the study period. Meanwhile, the technical progress has a positive effect on the eco-efficiency of the eastern and central regions, and the energy structure has a negative effect on the eco-efficiency across the country. However, the industrial structure and environmental policy have an impact on regional eco-efficiency to various degrees and in different directions. Accordingly, optimizing the capacity structure, impelling energy conservation and emission reduction and other suggestions have been put forward to advance the regional eco-efficiency.

Key words: regional eco-efficiency, urbanization, US-DEA model, ML index, panel Tobit model

郑慧, 贾珊, 赵昕. 新型城镇化背景下中国区域生态效率分析[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(7): 1314-1325.

Hui ZHENG, Shan JIA, Xin ZHAO. An analysis of regional eco - efficiency in China under the background of new-type urbanization[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(7): 1314-1325.

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地区	均值	排名	地区	均值	排名	地区	均值	排名
上海	1.876	1	湖北	0.872	11	陕西	0.625	21
浙江	1.859	2	四川	0.859	12	河北	0.598	22
广东	1.652	3	辽宁	0.785	13	广西	0.573	23
江苏	1.643	4	湖南	0.734	14	山西	0.545	24
福建	1.527	5	河南	0.696	15	云南	0.529	25
北京	1.466	6	黑龙江	0.671	16	贵州	0.496	26
天津	1.369	7	江西	0.669	17	新疆	0.478	27
山东	1.303	8	重庆	0.657	18	内蒙古	0.465	28
海南	1.115	9	安徽	0.642	19	宁夏	0.451	29
青海	1.038	10	吉林	0.631	20	甘肃	0.437	30

地区	技术进步（TC）	纯技术效率（PTEC）	规模效率（SEC）	TFP
北京	1.025	1.000	0.972	0.996
天津	1.061	1.000	0.942	0.999
河北	1.051	0.964	0.983	0.996
辽宁	1.015	1.022	0.867	0.899
上海	1.057	1.017	1.000	1.075
江苏	1.033	1.091	0.887	1.000
浙江	1.068	1.000	0.938	1.002
福建	1.004	0.992	0.915	0.911
山东	1.025	1.007	0.921	0.951
广东	1.023	1.032	1.000	1.058
海南	1.075	0.996	0.895	0.958
东部地区	1.040	1.011	0.938	0.986
山西	1.005	0.773	1.096	0.851
吉林	1.010	0.981	1.000	0.991
黑龙江	1.023	0.954	1.021	0.996
安徽	1.030	0.848	1.079	0.942
江西	1.011	0.977	1.007	0.995
河南	1.006	0.948	0.986	0.940
湖北	1.036	0.928	1.008	0.969
湖南	1.025	1.000	1.000	1.025
中部地区	1.018	0.926	1.025	0.966
广西	1.017	1.095	0.985	1.097
重庆	1.026	1.024	1.000	1.051
四川	1.023	1.025	0.984	1.032
贵州	1.008	1.074	0.896	0.970
云南	1.015	1.000	1.001	1.016
陕西	1.022	1.092	0.874	0.975
甘肃	1.005	1.023	1.007	1.035
青海	1.031	0.995	0.989	1.015
宁夏	1.097	1.004	0.982	1.082
新疆	1.012	1.035	1.028	1.077
内蒙古	1.015	1.000	1.000	1.015
西部地区	1.025	1.033	0.977	1.033
全国	1.028	0.996	0.976	0.999

年度	技术进步（TC）	纯技术效率（PTEC）	规模效率（SEC）	全要素增长率（TFP）
2006-2007	1.023	1.015	1.021	1.060
2007-2008	1.027	0.987	0.943	0.956
2008-2009	1.036	1.001	0.992	1.029
2009-2010	1.024	0.991	0.946	0.960
2010-2011	1.019	1.000	0.953	0.971
2011-2012	1.032	0.991	0.989	1.011
2012-2013	1.027	0.996	0.985	1.008
2013-2014	1.029	0.994	0.960	0.982
2014-2015	1.031	0.989	0.995	1.015
平均值	1.028	0.996	0.976	0.999

被解释变量	东部	中部	西部
城镇化率	-2.158***（-2.30）	-1.851***（-2.17）	-0.794***（-4.18）
城镇化率二次项	0.461** （2.53）	0.275 （2.26）	0.125 （0.67）
产业结构	0.635** （3.23）	0.323 （1.98）	-0.487** （-3.39）
技术水平	2.115** （6.15）	2.076** （5.98）	1.998 （2.13）
能源结构	-0.278***（-3.45）	-0.290***（-3.82）	-0.832***（-4.71）
环境政策	-0.233 （-5.20）	-0.417***（-0.43）	-0.045** （-2.46）
Adjusted R²	0.608	0.576	0.437
F值	18.564	27.569	13.273