资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 1182-1193.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.17

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中国海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的影响——基于沿海11省市的面板门槛效应回归分析

王波(), 韩立民()   

  1. 中国海洋大学管理学院,青岛 266100
  • 收稿日期:2017-02-13 修回日期:2017-03-23 出版日期:2017-06-20 发布日期:2017-06-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:王波,男,山东临朐人,博士生,主要研究方向为海洋渔业与海陆产业一体化。E-mail:oucwangbo@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDA040)

Impacts of marine industrial structure changes on marine economic growth for 11 coastal provinces in China

Bo WANG(), Limin HAN()   

  1. Ocean University of China Management College,Qingdao 266100,China
  • Received:2017-02-13 Revised:2017-03-23 Online:2017-06-20 Published:2017-06-20

摘要:

产业结构变动影响要素的流动与配置,要素配置效率决定着经济增长的质量与速度。本文基于VES生产函数建立了以海洋产业结构为门槛变量的估计模型,探究海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的影响,可为推动中国海洋供给侧结构性改革,提高海洋经济增长质量提供参考。研究结果表明:①海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的影响具有显著差异性。海洋第二产业占GOP比重在越过门槛值时对海洋经济增长的影响比较显著,对海洋经济发展产生较大的“结构红利”,在一定程度上会促进海洋经济增长;海洋第三产业占GOP比重对海洋经济增长的影响则不显著;海洋产业结构高度化对海洋经济增长具有负向效应,会制约海洋经济发展。②海洋产业结构变动引起了海洋资本、海洋劳动力和海洋科技投入对海洋经济增长方式的改变,并呈现阶段性特征。传统海洋投资结构在海洋经济发展初期会促进海洋经济增长,但越过门槛值后,将会抑制海洋经济增长;海洋劳动力对海洋经济增长的正向影响均比较显著;海洋经济增长对科技投入的依赖,更多的需要智力支持而非单纯的体力供给。

关键词: 海洋产业结构, 生产要素, 海洋经济增长, 门槛效应, 中国

Abstract:

Changes in industrial structure influence the flow and distribution of factors,and the allocation efficiency of factors determines the quality and speed of marine economic growth. Based on the VES production function,we establish an estimation model considering marine industry structure as a threshold variable to study the impacts of marine industrial structural changes on marine economic growth,Which provides a reference for promoting the structural reform of China's marine supply side and improving the quality of marine economic growth. We found that marine industrial structure changes have differences on the influence of marine economic growth. The proportion of marine secondary industry in GOP over the threshold has a significant impact on the growth of the marine economy,which has a large ‘structural dividend’ to the development of the marine economy and promotes marine economic growth. The effect of the proportion of marine tertiary industry in GOP on marine economic growth is not significant. However,the high level of marine industrial structure has a negative effect on the growth of the marine economy and hinder the development of the marine economy. A traditional marine investment structure promotes growth of the marine economy in the early stage of marine economic development,but oversteps marine economic growth after crossing the threshold. Marine labor has a positive effect on marine economic growth. The dependence of marine economic growth on science and technology investment means that intellectual support rather than physical supply is needed.

Key words: marine industrial structure, factors of production, marine economic growth, threshold effect, China