资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 1117-1126.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.11
收稿日期:
2017-02-10
修回日期:
2017-03-05
出版日期:
2017-06-20
发布日期:
2017-06-20
作者简介:
作者简介:张月,女,吉林磐石人,硕士生,主要研究方向为能源系统分析与气候变化政策。E-mail:
基金资助:
Yue ZHANG1(), Bolin PAN1, Jinbin LI2, Alun GU1(
)
Received:
2017-02-10
Revised:
2017-03-05
Online:
2017-06-20
Published:
2017-06-20
摘要:
中国人均水资源量仅为世界人均水平的29%,且经济快速增长、工业用水需求也与日俱增,如何平衡经济发展与工业用水之间的关系是目前需要分析与解决的重要问题。本文将全国分为八大经济区域,建立约化模型,验证不同特征的工业用水EKC(Environmental Kuznets Curve)关系。结果显示中国工业用水发展水平符合EKC特征,人均工业用水与人均GDP存在着“倒U”型关系。拐点的出现主要由于技术创新、产业结构升级等因素导致,地区发展不平衡导致人均工业用水拐点不同。工业用水EKC曲线的研究对协同经济发展与工业用水的研究有着重要的意义,需要通过调整产业结构、提高用水效率、研发前沿技术等方法,使工业用水EKC转折点的尽早实现。
张月, 潘柏林, 李锦彬, 顾阿伦. 基于库兹涅茨曲线的中国工业用水与经济增长关系研究[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(6): 1117-1126.
Yue ZHANG, Bolin PAN, Jinbin LI, Alun GU. The relationship analysis between Chinese industrial water use and economic growth based on the Kuznets Curve[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(6): 1117-1126.
表2
面板数据单位根检验结果"
全国 | ||||
原序列 | -2.556 | -1.951 | -1.353 | -2.534 |
一阶差分 | -1.083 | -1.327 | -1.610 | -1.038 |
二阶差分 | -3.016* | -3.013* | -3.014* | -3.918** |
东北地区 | ||||
原序列 | -4.207** | -4.707** | -6.269** | -1.013 |
一阶差分 | - | - | - | -1.820 |
二阶差分 | - | - | - | -3.443** |
北部沿海 | ||||
原序列 | -3.450** | -3.853** | -4.295** | -4.064** |
东部沿海 | ||||
原序列 | -7.046** | -5.835** | -4.652** | -3.061* |
南部沿海 | ||||
原序列 | -4.025** | -3.942** | -3.787** | -0.570 |
一阶差分 | - | - | - | -3.447** |
黄河中游 | ||||
原序列 | -4.118** | -2.925 | -1.789 | -1.659 |
一阶差分 | - | 0.530 | -1.108 | -1.585 |
二阶差分 | - | 3.049* | -2.916* | -3.249** |
长江中游 | ||||
原序列 | -2.517 | -2.044 | -1.560 | -2.716 |
一阶差分 | -1.070 | -1.606 | -2.016 | -1.629 |
二阶差分 | -3.019* | -2.917* | -2.835* | -4.409* |
西南地区 | ||||
原序列 | -1.754 | -1.438 | -1.199 | -0.233 |
一阶差分 | -1.251 | -1.585 | -1.774 | -0.653 |
二阶差分 | -2.656 | -2.516 | -2.390 | -3.356** |
大西北地区 | ||||
原序列 | -0.691 | 0.915 | 1.705 | -3.273** |
一阶差分 | -3.490** | -3.259** | -2.468 | |
二阶差分 | - | - | -2.702 |
表5
全国及三个地区用水EKC曲线拟合参数及分析结果(修正后)"
0.全国 | 2.北部沿海 | 3.东部沿海 | 6.长江中游 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
188.291 | 283.146 | -301.181 | 230.655 | |
-61.022 | -80.174 | 82.080 | -75.631 | |
6.711 | 7.651 | -7.267 | 8.387 | |
-0.245 | -0.243 | 0.213 | -0.308 | |
0.972 | 0.971 | 0.848 | 0.962 | |
104.450 | 100.220 | 12.970 | 75.709 | |
0.000 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.000 | |
形状 | 倒U形 | 下降 | 倒U形 | 倒U形 |
拐点坐标 | (9.875, 4.674) | - | (10.310, 5.478) | (9.818 , 5.062) |
拐点人均GDP/元 | 19 436 | - | 30 025 | 18 369 |
拐点人均工业 用水/m3 | 107 | - | 239 | 158 |
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