福建省极端降水时空变化特征及其环流因素分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.06.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用福建省22个气象观测站1961-2013年逐日降水量实测资料,应用趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall突变分析法、小波分析法、点值法和相关分析法,分析了极端降水的时空变化特征及其环流因素。研究结果表明:①在时间尺度上,福建省极端降水整体上表现出增加的趋势,其中SDII、R50mm和CWD存在明显的突变现象,突变时间分别在1994年左右、1995年左右和1998年左右;各极端降水指数普遍存在着2~3a、6~8a的短周期和10~12a的中周期;②在空间尺度上,极端降水受海陆位置、纬度位置影响存在明显的空间差异,具体表现为PRCPTOT变化趋势由东部沿海向西部内陆减小;③随着季节变换,影响或登陆福建省台风数、副热带高压带的强度引发明显的环流季节变化对福建省极端降水产生重要影响,福建省在850hPa和1000hPa位势高度差值均存在负的低值中心,有利于极端降水事件的发生。研究结果为未来福建省的极端气候变化趋势预测、福建农业气象灾害影响预估、决策提供参考。

关键词: 极端降水, 时空变化, 环流因素, 福建省

Abstract:

Extreme precipitation is an important aspect of climate change. Fujian Province is often affected by extreme precipitation events such as typhoons and severe convective weather and it is critical to research changes in extreme precipitation events in Fujian with respect to global warming. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal change in extreme precipitation in Fujian and circulation causes using trend analysis,Mann-Kendall abrupt change analysis,wavelet analysis,Point-Measured methods and correlational analysis. We used daily precipitation of 22 meteorological observation stations in Fujian from 1961 to 2013. We found that extreme precipitation increased. The SDII,R50mm and CWD indices experienced obvious abrupt changes around 1994,1995 and 1998,respectively. The period of oscillation of each extreme precipitation index was similar,including 2~3 years,6~8 years short-cycle and 10~12 years middle-cycle at large. Extreme precipitation had obvious spatial differences. PRCPTOT revealed a decreasing trend from the eastern coast to western inland. Extreme precipitation was influenced by the location of land and sea,terrain and latitude. Circulation seasonal variation in the number of Fujian Province Typhoons,and the intensity and location of the Subtropical High affected extreme precipitation in Fujian. There was a negative low value center in the geopotential height difference of 850hPa and the 1000hPa over Fujian,which promoted the occurrence of extreme precipitation events. These findings provide a scientific reference for further our understanding and predicting trends in extreme climate in the future and estimates and decision-making of agro-meteorological hazard influence in Fujian.

Key words: extreme precipitation, spatiotemporal change, circulation causes, Fujian Province

郭湘宇, 吴正方, 杜海波, 王雷, 杨满根, 陈志彪. 福建省极端降水时空变化特征及其环流因素分析[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(6): 1084-1098.

Xiangyu GUO, Zhengfang WU, Haibo DU, Lei WANG, Mangen YANG, Zhibiao CHEN. Spatio-temporal change characteristics and circulation causes of extreme precipitation in Fujian Province[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(6): 1084-1098.

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指数缩写	指数名称	定义
Rx1day	最大1日降水量/mm	每年最大1日的降水量
Rx5day	最大连续5日降水量/mm	每年最大的连续5日降水量
SDII	降水强度/（mm/d）	年降水量与降水日数（日降水量≥ 1mm）比值
R50mm	暴雨日数/d	日降水量≥ 50mm的日数
CDD	持续干期日数/d	日降水量连续< 1mm的最长时期
CWD	持续湿期日数/d	日降水量连续≥ 1mm的最长时期
R95p	强降水量/mm	日降水量> 95%分位值的总降水量
PRCPTOT	降水总量/mm	每年累计降水量之和

	CDD	CWD	PRCPTOT	R50mm	R95p	Rx1day	Rx5day	SDII
经度	-0.388*	0.303	0.261	0.122	0.165	0.006	0.217	0.373*
纬度	-0.383*	-0.151	-0.625**	-0.228	-0.375*	-0.550**	-0.218	-0.431**
海拔	-0.116	-0.506**	-0.267	-0.060	0.024	0.171	-0.041	-0.101

影响因素	Rx1day	Rx5day	SDII	R50mm	CDD	CWD	R95p	PRCPTOT
西太平洋编号台风数	-0.237	-0.227	-0.304*	-0.318*	0.126	-0.148	-0.323*	-0.275*
南海副高强度指数	0.338*	0.422*	0.473*	0.371*	0.018	0.092	0.433*	0.352*
北半球副高强度指数	0.291*	0.332*	0.479*	0.352*	0.047	-0.085	0.390*	0.236
西太平洋副高强度指数	0.287*	0.324*	0.452*	0.312*	0.045	-0.012	0.359*	0.228
南方涛动指数	-0.012	-0.060	-0.050	0.018	-0.123	-0.138	-0.017	-0.088
ENSO指数	0.106	0.099	0.179	0.066	0.092	0.161	0.109	0.171

年份类型	年份
偏强年份	1961年、1962年、1973年、1992年、1997年、1998年、2000年、2005年、2006年、2010年
偏弱年份	1967年、1971年、1991年、2003年

影响因素	Rx1day	Rx5day	SDII	R50mm	CDD	CWD	R95p	PRCPTOT
西太平洋编号台风数	-0.237	-0.227	-0.304*	-0.318*	0.126	-0.148	-0.323*	-0.275*
影响福建省台风数	0.334	0.259	0.443*	0.389*	-0.008	0.027	0.370*	0.136
登陆福建省台风数	0.428*	0.332	0.268	0.417*	0.058	0.137	0.424*	0.291