资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 1084-1098.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.09
郭湘宇1(), 吴正方1(
), 杜海波1, 王雷1, 杨满根2, 陈志彪2
收稿日期:
2016-04-18
修回日期:
2016-12-15
出版日期:
2017-06-20
发布日期:
2017-06-20
作者简介:
作者简介:郭湘宇,男,湖南中方县人,硕士生,主要从事区域气候变化、自然地理学方向研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Xiangyu GUO1(), Zhengfang WU1(
), Haibo DU1, Lei WANG1, Mangen YANG2, Zhibiao CHEN2
Received:
2016-04-18
Revised:
2016-12-15
Online:
2017-06-20
Published:
2017-06-20
摘要:
利用福建省22个气象观测站1961-2013年逐日降水量实测资料,应用趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall突变分析法、小波分析法、点值法和相关分析法,分析了极端降水的时空变化特征及其环流因素。研究结果表明:①在时间尺度上,福建省极端降水整体上表现出增加的趋势,其中SDII、R50mm和CWD存在明显的突变现象,突变时间分别在1994年左右、1995年左右和1998年左右;各极端降水指数普遍存在着2~3a、6~8a的短周期和10~12a的中周期;②在空间尺度上,极端降水受海陆位置、纬度位置影响存在明显的空间差异,具体表现为PRCPTOT变化趋势由东部沿海向西部内陆减小;③随着季节变换,影响或登陆福建省台风数、副热带高压带的强度引发明显的环流季节变化对福建省极端降水产生重要影响,福建省在850hPa和1000hPa位势高度差值均存在负的低值中心,有利于极端降水事件的发生。研究结果为未来福建省的极端气候变化趋势预测、福建农业气象灾害影响预估、决策提供参考。
郭湘宇, 吴正方, 杜海波, 王雷, 杨满根, 陈志彪. 福建省极端降水时空变化特征及其环流因素分析[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(6): 1084-1098.
Xiangyu GUO, Zhengfang WU, Haibo DU, Lei WANG, Mangen YANG, Zhibiao CHEN. Spatio-temporal change characteristics and circulation causes of extreme precipitation in Fujian Province[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(6): 1084-1098.
表3
福建省极端降水指数与各影响因素指数相关系数"
影响因素 | Rx1day | Rx5day | SDII | R50mm | CDD | CWD | R95p | PRCPTOT |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
西太平洋编号台风数 | -0.237 | -0.227 | -0.304* | -0.318* | 0.126 | -0.148 | -0.323* | -0.275* |
南海副高强度指数 | 0.338* | 0.422* | 0.473* | 0.371* | 0.018 | 0.092 | 0.433* | 0.352* |
北半球副高强度指数 | 0.291* | 0.332* | 0.479* | 0.352* | 0.047 | -0.085 | 0.390* | 0.236 |
西太平洋副高强度指数 | 0.287* | 0.324* | 0.452* | 0.312* | 0.045 | -0.012 | 0.359* | 0.228 |
南方涛动指数 | -0.012 | -0.060 | -0.050 | 0.018 | -0.123 | -0.138 | -0.017 | -0.088 |
ENSO指数 | 0.106 | 0.099 | 0.179 | 0.066 | 0.092 | 0.161 | 0.109 | 0.171 |
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