资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 1071-1083.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.08

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“一带一路”产油国经济增长与石油生产和贸易的动态关系研究

孔含笑1,2(), 沈镭1,2, 钟帅1()   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2017-02-10 修回日期:2017-03-05 出版日期:2017-06-20 发布日期:2017-06-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:孔含笑,女,吉林省吉林市人,博士,主要从事资源经济与政策研究。E-mail:konghx.14b@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    科技部国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”专项(2016YFA0602802);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71633006)

Dynamic relations among oil production and trade and economic growth in oil producing countries in the Belt and Road

Hanxiao KONG1,2(), Lei SHEN1,2, Shuai ZHONG1()   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
  • Received:2017-02-10 Revised:2017-03-05 Online:2017-06-20 Published:2017-06-20

摘要:

随着国家“一带一路”战略的推进,中国与沿线国家的贸易往来日益紧密,石油资源作为重要的战略能源在区域合作中尤为重要。基于互惠互利原则,本文对沿线产油国的经济增长与石油生产和石油贸易的关系进行了定量分析,目的是揭示各国经济增长与石油供需之间的作用机理,寻求兼顾中国与沿线各国石油资源贸易的合作策略。本研究整理了2000-2015年“一带一路”沿线产油国的经济增长、石油产量和石油贸易量数据,运用格兰杰因果检验法、VAR模型和脉冲响应分析,对“一带一路”沿线21个产油国的经济增长、石油生产、石油贸易三者间的动态趋同关系进行评估。结果表明,三个变量间的动态关系存在三种明显不同的模式,即循环因果关系(三种变量之间存在显著的接替性循环变化)、互为因果关系(两种变量之间存在一种或两种显著的双向交替变化)和单向因果关系(两种变量之间仅存在一种显著的先后变化)。结合中国国情和模型检验结果,本文提出了差异化的中国石油贸易合作策略,即:采用石油贸易合作,人才、技术资源输出等方式,推动中国与“一带一路”沿线产油国的石油资源贸易;重点加强中国-中亚-西亚经济带和新亚欧经济带的建设,并制定优先合作策略,有利于缓解中国石油供给安全压力,确保“一带一路”倡议的顺利实施。

关键词: “一带一路”, 石油生产, 石油贸易, 经济增长, 格兰杰检验, 脉冲响应函数

Abstract:

With the advance of the Belt and Road,trade contact between countries along the line and China has become increasingly closed. Oil resources are a crucial strategy energy is particularly important in the regional cooperation. Based on the principle of mutual benefit,in order to reveal action mechanism among economic growth and oil supply and demand,we collected Gross Domestic Product data,oil production data and oil trade data from the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2015 and applied the granger causality test,vector autoregressive modeling and impulse response to look at relationships between economic growth,oil production and oil trade. The results show that there are three kinds of dynamic relationships: circular causality chain,where a recurrent changing relationship is found from three variables;reciprocal causation,where one or two alternate changing relationships are found from two of three variables;and one-way causation,where only one successive changing relationship is found from two of three variables. Combined with the Chinese situation and the Impulse Response Function,we propose a differentiation trade cooperation strategy based on oil trade cooperation and talent technology output in order to contribute to strengthen trade cooperation between Chinese and oil producing countries in the Belt and Road. Strengthening the Economic Corridor of Central Asia and West Asia and the New Asia Europe Economic Corridor should be done via a priority cooperation strategy. This will help relieve pressure on China’s oil supply and promote the Belt and Road Initiative.

Key words: the Belt and Road, oil trade and production, economic growth, granger causality test, impulse response function