国家金属资源安全研究回顾与展望

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.05.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

金属资源是国民经济建设的重要物质基础,金属资源安全事关国家安全。本文从内涵机理、驱动因素、评估方法、战略与政策四个方面梳理了近年来国家金属资源安全研究进展。研究表明,国家金属资源安全涵盖供给安全、经济安全和生态安全,主要受资源禀赋、经济发展、技术进步等因素的影响。国家战略性金属的关键性评估方法包括关键性矩阵、关键性指数和未来供需定量分析等;金属资源需求预测方法主要有趋势外推法、自下而上法和数理统计法等;国家金属资源市场势力和定价权评估方法主要有勒纳指数、HHI指数以及均衡博弈模型等。世界各国都根据本国国情采取了不同的金属资源安全保障战略和政策工具。未来应加强在国家金属资源非常规安全机理、新技术革命对金属资源供需的冲击、国际贸易规则以及重大战略实施对国家金属资源安全的影响等方面的研究。

关键词: 国家资源安全, 金属资源, 内涵机理, 评估方法, 战略政策

Abstract:

Metal resources are critical materials for Chinese economic development,and their security is closely related to national security. Here we systemically review the connotation and mechanisms,driving factors,evaluation methods,national strategies and policies of national metal resource security（NMRS）. The content of NMRS covers the security of supply,price and environment. The key factors that influence the security status of NMRS are resource endowment,economic development,technical progress,and ecological environment. In principle,existing studies apply three approaches to assess the criticality of metals,criticality matrices,criticality indices and quantitative future supply and demand analysis. The most used approaches in metal demand forecasting are the trend extrapolation method,bottom-up approach and mathematical statistics. The market power and pricing of metals are estimated by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index,Lerner index,and equilibrium game models. Different strategies and policy tools for metal security are adopted by countries or regions depending on their national circumstances. Based on these findings and the needs of social development,future study in NMRS should focus mainly on the following four areas:（1）comprehensive research on the mechanism of NMRS;（2）the influence of new technological revolution on NMRS;（3）impacts of changing international trade rules and pricing mechanism on NMRS;and （4）evaluation of the impact of international significant strategies on NMRS.

Key words: national resource security, metal resources, content and mechanism, evaluation methods, strategy and policy

王昶, 宋慧玲, 左绿水, 黄健柏. 国家金属资源安全研究回顾与展望[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(5): 805-817.

Chang WANG, Huiling SONG, Lvshui ZUO, Jianbai HUANG. Review and prospects of national metal resource security[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(5): 805-817.

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研究机构	中国工业经济所	中国地质科学院	美国国家研究委员会	英国伦敦环境部	日本新能源产业技术开发机构	荷兰统计中心	德国技术评估研究所	耶鲁大学	欧盟	频数统计
供应风险指标:
生产集中度	√	√	-	√	√	-	√	√	√	7
供应潜力	√	√	√	-	-	√		√	-	5
世界治理指标	√	√	-	-	-	-	√	√	√	5
可开采年限	-	-	√	-	√	-	√	√	-	4
人类发展指数	√	-	√	√	-	-	-	√	-	4
环境影响	-	-	√	-	√	-	√	-	√	4
价格波动	-	√	-	√	√	√	-	-	-	4
矿业政策潜力指数	√	-	√	-	-	-	-	√	-	3
副产品依存度	-	-	√	-	-	-	√	√	-	3
回收潜力	-	-	√	-	-	-	√	-	√	3
进口厂商集中度	-	√		-	√	-	-	-	-	2
进口依赖	-	√	√	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
脆弱性指标:
可替代性	√	√	√	√	√	-	√	-	-	6
经济重要意义	√	√	-	-	-	√	-	√	√	5
需求变化	-	√	-	√	√	√	√	-	-	5
原材料价值	-	√	√	-	-	-	-	√	-	3
价格变动	-	-	-	-	√	√	-	-	-	2
未来供需比	-	-	√	-	-	-	√	-	-	2
进口依赖	√	-	-	-	-	-	-	√	-	2
使用受限	-	-	-	-	√	√	-	-	-	2
环境风险指标:
环境影响	√	-	-	-	-	-	-	√	-	2

方法	使用原理	适用范围
趋势外推法	基于金属资源人均消费量与人均GDP的“S”型规律、金属资源消费强度“倒U”型规律等,预测金属资源的需求量。	适用于对用途广泛、与经济社会发展关系密切的大宗金属资源的需求预测。
自下而上法	将金属消费领域划分数个消费行业、部门或产品,通过对各行业、部门或产品的发展趋势的层次分析和判断,预测金属资源的总体需求。	适用于对消费集中在某些行业、部门或产品的金属资源的需求预测。
数理统计法	根据事物的因果关系,利用数理统计方法建立因变量与自变量之间的回归函数,并依此预测未来的一类数学方法。	方法多样,可根据不同金属资源需求特性及数据特点选取恰当的数理统计方法。