契约农业,地区差异与养殖信心恢复——以H7N9禽流感事件为例

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.04.18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

2013年4月的H7N9禽流感重创了中国的肉禽业,挫伤了大量养殖户的养殖信心。肉禽业的稳定发展离不开养殖户养殖信心的恢复。中国肉鸡产业化发展迅速,生产契约日益影响农户生产决策,同时肉鸡生产存在南北方地域差异。因此,探讨契约农业和地区差异对养殖信心恢复周期的影响具有实际意义。本文依托全国6个肉鸡生产大省280个肉鸡养殖户的调查数据,采用寿命表法、韦布尔分布函数和Cox比例风险回归模型研究发现,在正常情况下,全体养殖户预计到2017年12月能恢复养殖信心;参与契约农业的养殖户或来自北方的养殖户受H7N9事件的冲击较小,养殖信心恢复较快;养殖户参与契约农业的养殖信心恢复概率比未参与的高77%,南方养殖户比北方的信心恢复概率低89%。

关键词: H7N9禽流感, 契约农业, 地区差异, 养殖信心恢复, Cox比例风险回归

Abstract:

The H7N9 avian influenza event in April 2013 damaged the meat poultry sector in China and resulted in a loss of farmer breeding confidence. Steady development of the meat poultry sector depends on breeding confidence recovery. Industrialization of the broiler industry is developing fast and contract farming has influenced farmer production decisions, and exposed differences in broilers farming between southern and northern China. It seems significant to investigate influence of contract farming and geographic differences in farmer breeding confidence rebound. Using 280 broiler farmer samples from six top broiler production provinces, life table methods and the weibull distribution function were used to study farmer farming confidence and predict rebound cycles. Secondly, cox proportional hazard regression model was used to analyze factors that influence breeding confidence rebound cycle. It was found that all farmers are expected to rebound their breeding confidence by December 2017 under normal circumstances. Farmers taking part in contract farming from northern China were less influenced and their breeding confidence recovered quickly. The breeding confidence probability of farmers who participated in contract farming was 77% higher than other farmers. The confidence probability of farmers from southern China was 89% lower than those from northern China. In terms of control variables, farmers who were male, had poultry breeding as their main business, had spent a few years farming, had a low proportion of farm income accounting for total family income, had not experienced avian influenza epidemics, and who had epidemic prevention information channels were more likely to recover breeding confidence quickly. Increasing public and professional epidemic prevention information channels, encourage farmers to participate in contract farming for market risk shift, improve and standardize the live poultry market in southern China may be better ways to hasten breeding confidence recovery.

Key words: H7N9 avian influenza, contract farming, area difference, breeding confidence rebound, Cox proportional hazard regression

黄泽颖, 王济民. 契约农业,地区差异与养殖信心恢复——以H7N9禽流感事件为例[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(4): 782-794.

Zeying HUANG, Jimin WANG. Contract farming, area differences and farmer rebound in breeding confidence after a H7N9 avian influenza event[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(4): 782-794.

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变量	定义与赋值	平均值	标准差	预期方向
核心变量
是否参与契约农业	否=0;是=1	0.79	0.41	?
个人特征
地区差异	北方=0;南方=1	0.52	0.50	+
性别	女=0;男=1	0.86	0.35	-
年龄	周岁	45.81	9.50	+
教育年限	年	9.61	2.22	-
养殖特征
养殖年限	年	10.06	6.74	-
养殖规模	万只/批	1.58	2.48	+
养殖收入占家庭总收入的比重	%	75.90	0.22	+
养殖专员占总雇佣人数比重	%	22.00	0.38	-
是否以肉鸡养殖为主业	否=0;是=1	0.90	0.31	-
禽流感的风险感知	完全不了解=0;不了解=1;一般=2;了解=3;非常了解=4	2.51	0.88	-
社会支持
防疫信息渠道数量	1个信息渠道=0;2个信息渠道=1;3个信息渠道=2	1.14	0.80	-
养殖场周边是否有畜牧兽医服务站	否=0;是=1	0.43	0.50	-
养殖场是否为政府规划过的养殖小区	否=0;是=1	0.49	0.50	-
周边近几年是否发生过禽流感	否=0;是=1	0.12	0.32	-

养殖信心生存率/%	不参与契约农业的养殖信心生存率/%	参与契约农业的养殖信心生存率/%	南方养殖信心生存率/%	北方养殖信心生存率/%	月数	对应年月
18.60	18.30	7.00	11.40	2.90	第28个月	2015年8月
14.20	13.90	3.40	9.80	0.90	第30个月	2015年10月
6.50	6.30	0.30	6.50	0.00	第35个月	2016年3月
2.60	2.50	0.00	2.70	0.00	第40个月	2016年8月
0.90	0.80	0.00	1.10	0.00	第45个月	2017年1月
0.30	0.20	0.00	0.50	0.00	第50个月	2017年6月
0.10	0.10	0.00	0.20	0.00	第55个月	2017年11月
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	第56个月	2017年12月

变量类型	变量名称	风险率 /%	稳健标准差	Z值	Rho	chi2
核心变量	是否参与契约农业	177.00	0.31	-3.22***	-0.01	0.05
	地区差异	10.90	0.03	8.61***	0.01	0.06
个人特征	性别	136.00	0.20	-2.09**	0.01	0.03
	年龄	100.60	0.01	-0.69	-0.01	0.02
	教育年限	97.00	0.02	1.32	-0.01	0.01
	禽流感的风险感知	96.10	0.05	0.71	0.02	0.56
养殖特征	养殖年限	93.80	0.01	5.82***	0.03	0.72
	养殖规模	101.30	0.01	-1.14	-0.04	0.81
	养殖收入占家庭总收入的比重	60.00	0.14	2.20**	0.02	0.04
	养殖专员占总雇佣人数比重	91.40	0.16	0.52	0.02	0.04
	是否以肉鸡养殖为主业	200.20	0.65	-2.14**	0.02	0.07
	近几年周边是否发生禽流感	46.20	0.18	2.03**	-0.03	0.05
社会支持	防疫信息渠道数量	116.70	0.09	-2.09**	0.04	0.07
	养殖场周边是否有畜牧兽医服务站	93.40	0.10	0.63	-0.04	0.07
	养殖场是否为政府规划过的养殖小区	112.00	0.14	-0.95	0.06	0.09
GÖnen and Heller一致性系数	0.78
Log pseudolikelihood	-1 080.79
Wald chi2(15)	266.77***
Global 检验	0.01					0.02