资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 782-794.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.04.18
收稿日期:
2016-07-11
修回日期:
2016-12-26
出版日期:
2017-04-30
发布日期:
2017-04-25
作者简介:
作者简介:黄泽颖,男,广东汕头人,博士生,研究方向为畜牧经济与农户行为。E-mail:
基金资助:
Received:
2016-07-11
Revised:
2016-12-26
Online:
2017-04-30
Published:
2017-04-25
摘要:
2013年4月的H7N9禽流感重创了中国的肉禽业,挫伤了大量养殖户的养殖信心。肉禽业的稳定发展离不开养殖户养殖信心的恢复。中国肉鸡产业化发展迅速,生产契约日益影响农户生产决策,同时肉鸡生产存在南北方地域差异。因此,探讨契约农业和地区差异对养殖信心恢复周期的影响具有实际意义。本文依托全国6个肉鸡生产大省280个肉鸡养殖户的调查数据,采用寿命表法、韦布尔分布函数和Cox比例风险回归模型研究发现,在正常情况下,全体养殖户预计到2017年12月能恢复养殖信心;参与契约农业的养殖户或来自北方的养殖户受H7N9事件的冲击较小,养殖信心恢复较快;养殖户参与契约农业的养殖信心恢复概率比未参与的高77%,南方养殖户比北方的信心恢复概率低89%。
黄泽颖, 王济民. 契约农业,地区差异与养殖信心恢复——以H7N9禽流感事件为例[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(4): 782-794.
Zeying HUANG, Jimin WANG. Contract farming, area differences and farmer rebound in breeding confidence after a H7N9 avian influenza event[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(4): 782-794.
表1
变量的描述性统计"
变量 | 定义与赋值 | 平均值 | 标准差 | 预期方向 |
---|---|---|---|---|
核心变量 | ||||
是否参与契约农业 | 否=0;是=1 | 0.79 | 0.41 | ? |
个人特征 | ||||
地区差异 | 北方=0;南方=1 | 0.52 | 0.50 | + |
性别 | 女=0;男=1 | 0.86 | 0.35 | - |
年龄 | 周岁 | 45.81 | 9.50 | + |
教育年限 | 年 | 9.61 | 2.22 | - |
养殖特征 | ||||
养殖年限 | 年 | 10.06 | 6.74 | - |
养殖规模 | 万只/批 | 1.58 | 2.48 | + |
养殖收入占家庭总收入的比重 | % | 75.90 | 0.22 | + |
养殖专员占总雇佣人数比重 | % | 22.00 | 0.38 | - |
是否以肉鸡养殖为主业 | 否=0;是=1 | 0.90 | 0.31 | - |
禽流感的风险感知 | 完全不了解=0;不了解=1;一般=2;了解=3;非常了解=4 | 2.51 | 0.88 | - |
社会支持 | ||||
防疫信息渠道数量 | 1个信息渠道=0;2个信息渠道=1;3个信息渠道=2 | 1.14 | 0.80 | - |
养殖场周边是否有畜牧兽医服务站 | 否=0;是=1 | 0.43 | 0.50 | - |
养殖场是否为政府规划过的养殖小区 | 否=0;是=1 | 0.49 | 0.50 | - |
周边近几年是否发生过禽流感 | 否=0;是=1 | 0.12 | 0.32 | - |
表2
2015-2017年受调查养殖户的养殖信心恢复周期预测"
养殖信心 生存率/% | 不参与契约农业的养殖信心生存率/% | 参与契约农业的养殖信心生存率/% | 南方养殖信心生存率/% | 北方养殖信心 生存率/% | 月数 | 对应年月 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18.60 | 18.30 | 7.00 | 11.40 | 2.90 | 第28个月 | 2015年8月 |
14.20 | 13.90 | 3.40 | 9.80 | 0.90 | 第30个月 | 2015年10月 |
6.50 | 6.30 | 0.30 | 6.50 | 0.00 | 第35个月 | 2016年3月 |
2.60 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 2.70 | 0.00 | 第40个月 | 2016年8月 |
0.90 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 第45个月 | 2017年1月 |
0.30 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 第50个月 | 2017年6月 |
0.10 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 第55个月 | 2017年11月 |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 第56个月 | 2017年12月 |
表4
养殖信心恢复时间的Cox比例风险回归模型结果"
变量类型 | 变量名称 | 风险率 /% | 稳健标 准差 | Z值 | Rho | chi2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
核心变量 | 是否参与契约农业 | 177.00 | 0.31 | -3.22*** | -0.01 | 0.05 |
地区差异 | 10.90 | 0.03 | 8.61*** | 0.01 | 0.06 | |
个人特征 | 性别 | 136.00 | 0.20 | -2.09** | 0.01 | 0.03 |
年龄 | 100.60 | 0.01 | -0.69 | -0.01 | 0.02 | |
教育年限 | 97.00 | 0.02 | 1.32 | -0.01 | 0.01 | |
禽流感的风险感知 | 96.10 | 0.05 | 0.71 | 0.02 | 0.56 | |
养殖特征 | 养殖年限 | 93.80 | 0.01 | 5.82*** | 0.03 | 0.72 |
养殖规模 | 101.30 | 0.01 | -1.14 | -0.04 | 0.81 | |
养殖收入占家庭总收入的比重 | 60.00 | 0.14 | 2.20** | 0.02 | 0.04 | |
养殖专员占总雇佣人数比重 | 91.40 | 0.16 | 0.52 | 0.02 | 0.04 | |
是否以肉鸡养殖为主业 | 200.20 | 0.65 | -2.14** | 0.02 | 0.07 | |
近几年周边是否发生禽流感 | 46.20 | 0.18 | 2.03** | -0.03 | 0.05 | |
社会支持 | 防疫信息渠道数量 | 116.70 | 0.09 | -2.09** | 0.04 | 0.07 |
养殖场周边是否有畜牧兽医服务站 | 93.40 | 0.10 | 0.63 | -0.04 | 0.07 | |
养殖场是否为政府规划过的养殖小区 | 112.00 | 0.14 | -0.95 | 0.06 | 0.09 | |
GÖnen and Heller一致性系数 | 0.78 | |||||
Log pseudolikelihood | -1 080.79 | |||||
Wald chi2(15) | 266.77*** | |||||
Global 检验 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
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