中国省际畜牧业碳排放测度及时空演化机制

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.04.11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

畜牧业是重要的碳排放源,中国作为畜牧业大国,测度畜牧业碳排放量并揭示其时空演化机制具有重要意义。运用全生命周期评价方法,测度了2000-2014年中国大陆31个省区的畜牧业碳排放,从时间和空间两个层面揭示了中国畜牧业碳排放的变化特征,进而采用动态面板数据模型揭示了畜牧业碳排放和城乡居民收入、城镇化之间的互动机制。结果表明：①2000-2014年,中国畜牧业碳排放总量由12 669.899万t增长到13 189.955万t,年均增速0.288%,其中畜禽胃肠发酵和粪便管理系统产生的碳排放是其主要来源,两者占畜牧业碳排放总量比重达74.48%~79.50%;②研究期内,中国高、低畜牧业碳排放区空间格局基本保持不变,偏高、中度畜牧业碳排放区呈现出明显的动态演变态势,高、偏高畜牧业碳排放区基本位于边疆草原地区和粮食主产区,且排名前10位的畜牧业碳排放省区占全国畜牧业碳排放比重达57.50%;③2000-2007年,草原牧区是中国畜牧业碳排放增长的核心区;而2007-2014年,农耕牧区演变为中国畜牧业碳排放增长的核心区;④农民人均纯收入、城镇居民人均可支配收入和城镇化对畜牧业碳排放的影响系数分别为0.078、0.127和-0.145,三者动态变化将共同决定今后一段时间中国畜牧业碳排放增长的时空格局。

关键词: 畜牧业碳排放, 全生命周期评价, 城镇化, 农民人均纯收入, 城镇居民人均可支配收入, 演化机制, 中国

Abstract:

Using life cycle assessment （LCA）methods,animal husbandry carbon emissions in 31 provinces of China from 2000-2014 were measured and spatial and temporal characteristics revealed. Using dynamic panel data model （GMM）,the interaction mechanisms between animal husbandry carbon emissions,per capita net income of rural residents （PCNIRR）,per capita disposable income of urban residents （PCDIUR）and urbanization were also analyzed. We found that from 2000 to 2014,the total amount of animal husbandry carbon emissions in China increased from 126.936 million tons to 131.335 million tons,with average annual growth rate of 0.244%,of which gastrointestinal fermentation of livestock and manure management systems carbon emissions were the two main sources,accounting for 74.14%~79.67% of total animal husbandry carbon emissions. During the study period,China's high and low animal husbandry carbon emissions areas were relatively stable,while slightly high and moderate animal husbandry carbon emission areas showed clear dynamic evolution. High animal husbandry carbon emissions areas were mostly located in prairie areas or major grain producing areas of China,and the top 10 animal husbandry carbon emissions provinces accounted for 57.50% of the total animal husbandry carbon emissions in China. During 2000-2007,prairie pastoral areas were increasingly the center of animal husbandry carbon emissions,however this shifted to farming pastoral areas from 2007-2014. The coefficients of PCNIRR,PCDIUR and urbanization to animal husbandry carbon emission were 0.078,0.127 and -0.145,respectively,meaning that interactions between these three factors will determine future temporal and spatial evolution patterns of animal husbandry carbon emission growth in China.

Key words: animal husbandry carbon emissions, life cycle assessment, urbanization, rural per capita net income, urban residents disposable income, evolution mechanism, China

姚成胜, 钱双双, 李政通, 梁龙武. 中国省际畜牧业碳排放测度及时空演化机制[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(4): 698-712.

Chengsheng YAO, Shuangshuang QIAN, Zhengtong LI, Longwu LIANG. Provincial animal husbandry carbon emissions in China and temporal-spatial evolution mechanism[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(4): 698-712.

图/表 6

Table 1

GHG emission coefficients of gastrointestinal fermentation and manure management system of livestock （kg/（头?a））"

畜禽品种	CH₄排放系数		N₂O排放系数
畜禽品种	肠胃发酵 $e f i 1$	粪便管理 $e f i 2$	粪便管理 $e f i 3$
猪	1.000	3.500	0.530
禽类	0.000	0.020	0.020
兔	0. 254	0.080	0.020
奶牛	68.000	16.000	1.000
非奶牛	51. 400	1.500	1.370
马	18.000	1.640	1.390
驴	10.000	0.900	1.390
骡	10.000	0.900	1.390
羊	5.000	0.160	0.330
骆驼	46.000	1.920	1.390

Table 1

表2

各系统边界的碳排放系数"

系统边界	符号	碳源排放系数	数值	单位	参考来源
饲料粮种植	$e f j 1$	玉米CO₂当量排放系数	1.500 0	t/t	参考文献[23]
		小麦CO₂当量排放系数	1.220 0	t/t
饲料粮运输加工	$e f j 2$	玉米CO₂当量排放系数	0.010 2	t/t	参考文献[24]
		大豆CO₂当量排放系数	0.101 3	t/t
		小麦CO₂当量排放系数	0.031 9	t/t
畜禽饲养	$pric e e$	畜禽养殖用电单价	0.427 5	元/（kW·h）	参考文献[20]
	$e f e$	电能消耗CO₂排放系数	0.973 4	tCO₂/（MW·h）
	$pric e c$	畜禽养殖用煤单位支出	800	元/t
	$e f c$	燃煤消耗CO₂排放系数	1.98	t/t	参考文献[16]
畜禽产品加工	$M J u$	猪肉屠宰加工耗能系数	3.76	MJ/kg	参考文献[15]
		牛肉屠宰加工耗能系数	4.37	MJ/kg
		羊肉屠宰加工耗能系数	10.40	MJ/kg
		禽肉屠宰加工耗能系数	2.59	MJ/kg
		牛奶屠宰加工耗能系数	1.12	MJ/kg
		禽蛋屠宰加工耗能系数	8.16	MJ/kg
	e	一度电热值	3.60	MJ	-
-	$e tpf$	CO₂当量转化为标准碳系数	0.272 8	-	IPCC
	$GW P C H 4$	CH₄全球升温潜能值	21	-	参考文献[16]
	$GW P N 2 O$	N₂O全球升温潜能值	310	-

表2

Table 3

Emissions of the standard C of animal husbandry by lifecycle assessment in China from 2000 to 2014 （万t,%）"

年份	TC_TOTAL	TC_CZ		TC_CY		TC_SW		TC_CD		TC_SC		TC_SG
年份	总量	总量	占比	总量	占比	总量	占比	总量	占比	总量	占比	总量	占比
2000	12 669.899	2 070.656	16.343	68.095	0.537	5 020.833	39.628	4 856.477	38.331	650.673	5.136	3.165	0.025
2001	12 557.472	1 927.219	15.347	65.567	0.522	5 037.106	40.112	4 946.037	39.387	578.240	4.605	3.303	0.026
2002	13 036.907	2 028.690	15.561	67.220	0.516	5 178.951	39.725	5 098.799	39.110	659.767	5.061	3.481	0.027
2003	14 360.155	2 919.641	20.332	91.833	0.639	5 383.257	37.487	5 322.688	37.066	639.020	4.450	3.716	0.026
2004	13 858.911	2 240.699	16.168	72.471	0.523	5 456.900	39.375	5 421.587	39.120	663.320	4.786	3.935	0.028
2005	14 696.131	2 374.259	16.156	76.209	0.519	5 723.719	38.947	5 777.379	39.312	740.349	5.038	4.217	0.029
2006	13 986.199	2 162.721	15.463	71.691	0.513	5 421.687	38.765	5 571.273	39.834	755.064	5.399	3.764	0.027
2007	12 163.720	2 332.767	19.178	74.898	0.616	4 385.787	36.056	4 715.442	38.766	651.030	5.352	3.796	0.031
2008	12 333.428	2 424.814	19.661	77.424	0.628	4 334.151	35.141	4 852.761	39.346	640.269	5.191	4.009	0.033
2009	12 830.583	2 472.250	19.268	78.733	0.614	4 509.470	35.146	5 113.900	39.857	652.098	5.082	4.133	0.032
2010	12 751.666	2 474.926	19.409	78.533	0.616	4 426.104	34.710	5 105.112	40.035	662.765	5.197	4.226	0.033
2011	12 632.564	2 483.655	19.661	77.845	0.616	4 352.435	34.454	5 067.549	40.115	646.816	5.120	4.264	0.034
2012	12 867.990	2 525.515	19.626	79.003	0.614	4 367.622	33.942	5 218.651	40.555	672.786	5.228	4.413	0.034
2013	12 992.218	2 496.480	19.215	78.206	0.602	4 390.716	33.795	5 285.595	40.683	736.771	5.671	4.451	0.034
2014	13 189.955	2 462.028	18.666	77.473	0.587	4 495.573	34.083	5 407.081	40.994	743.260	5.635	4.540	0.034
年均增长/%	0.288	1.244		0.926		-0.786		0.77		0.955		2.611

Table 3

图1

图2

表4

动态面板数据模型参数估计结果"

变量	系数	标准误	z统计量	P值
$lnT C i, t - 1$	0.561***	0.214	26.160	0.000
$lnT C i, t - 2$	0.101***	0.019	8.480	0.000
$lnT C i, t - 3$	-0.008	0.006	-1.230	0.220
$lnincru r it$	0.078***	0.027	2.910	0.004
$lnincur b it$	0.127***	0.036	3.570	0.000
$lnur b it$	-0.145***	0.008	-17.86	0.000
常数项	0.790*	0.465	1.700	0.089

表4

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