资源科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 698-712.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.04.11
姚成胜1,2(), 钱双双1,2,3, 李政通1,2,3, 梁龙武3,4
收稿日期:
2016-11-04
修回日期:
2016-12-27
出版日期:
2017-04-30
发布日期:
2017-04-25
作者简介:
作者简介:姚成胜,男,江西上饶人,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为农业资源环境评价与农业经济。E-mail:
基金资助:
Chengsheng YAO1,2(), Shuangshuang QIAN1,2,3, Zhengtong LI1,2,3, Longwu LIANG3,4
Received:
2016-11-04
Revised:
2016-12-27
Online:
2017-04-30
Published:
2017-04-25
摘要:
畜牧业是重要的碳排放源,中国作为畜牧业大国,测度畜牧业碳排放量并揭示其时空演化机制具有重要意义。运用全生命周期评价方法,测度了2000-2014年中国大陆31个省区的畜牧业碳排放,从时间和空间两个层面揭示了中国畜牧业碳排放的变化特征,进而采用动态面板数据模型揭示了畜牧业碳排放和城乡居民收入、城镇化之间的互动机制。结果表明:①2000-2014年,中国畜牧业碳排放总量由12 669.899万t增长到13 189.955万t,年均增速0.288%,其中畜禽胃肠发酵和粪便管理系统产生的碳排放是其主要来源,两者占畜牧业碳排放总量比重达74.48%~79.50%;②研究期内,中国高、低畜牧业碳排放区空间格局基本保持不变,偏高、中度畜牧业碳排放区呈现出明显的动态演变态势,高、偏高畜牧业碳排放区基本位于边疆草原地区和粮食主产区,且排名前10位的畜牧业碳排放省区占全国畜牧业碳排放比重达57.50%;③2000-2007年,草原牧区是中国畜牧业碳排放增长的核心区;而2007-2014年,农耕牧区演变为中国畜牧业碳排放增长的核心区;④农民人均纯收入、城镇居民人均可支配收入和城镇化对畜牧业碳排放的影响系数分别为0.078、0.127和-0.145,三者动态变化将共同决定今后一段时间中国畜牧业碳排放增长的时空格局。
姚成胜, 钱双双, 李政通, 梁龙武. 中国省际畜牧业碳排放测度及时空演化机制[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(4): 698-712.
Chengsheng YAO, Shuangshuang QIAN, Zhengtong LI, Longwu LIANG. Provincial animal husbandry carbon emissions in China and temporal-spatial evolution mechanism[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(4): 698-712.
Table 1
GHG emission coefficients of gastrointestinal fermentation and manure management system of livestock (kg/(头?a))"
畜禽品种 | CH4排放系数 | N2O排放系数 | |
---|---|---|---|
肠胃发酵 | 粪便管理 | 粪便管理 | |
猪 | 1.000 | 3.500 | 0.530 |
禽类 | 0.000 | 0.020 | 0.020 |
兔 | 0. 254 | 0.080 | 0.020 |
奶牛 | 68.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 |
非奶牛 | 51. 400 | 1.500 | 1.370 |
马 | 18.000 | 1.640 | 1.390 |
驴 | 10.000 | 0.900 | 1.390 |
骡 | 10.000 | 0.900 | 1.390 |
羊 | 5.000 | 0.160 | 0.330 |
骆驼 | 46.000 | 1.920 | 1.390 |
表2
各系统边界的碳排放系数"
系统边界 | 符号 | 碳源排放系数 | 数值 | 单位 | 参考来源 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
饲料粮种植 | 玉米CO2当量排放系数 | 1.500 0 | t/t | 参考文献[23] | |
小麦CO2当量排放系数 | 1.220 0 | t/t | |||
饲料粮运输加工 | 玉米CO2当量排放系数 | 0.010 2 | t/t | 参考文献[24] | |
大豆CO2当量排放系数 | 0.101 3 | t/t | |||
小麦CO2当量排放系数 | 0.031 9 | t/t | |||
畜禽饲养 | 畜禽养殖用电单价 | 0.427 5 | 元/(kW·h) | 参考文献[20] | |
电能消耗CO2排放系数 | 0.973 4 | tCO2/(MW·h) | |||
畜禽养殖用煤单位支出 | 800 | 元/t | |||
燃煤消耗CO2排放系数 | 1.98 | t/t | 参考文献[16] | ||
畜禽产品加工 | 猪肉屠宰加工耗能系数 | 3.76 | MJ/kg | 参考文献[15] | |
牛肉屠宰加工耗能系数 | 4.37 | MJ/kg | |||
羊肉屠宰加工耗能系数 | 10.40 | MJ/kg | |||
禽肉屠宰加工耗能系数 | 2.59 | MJ/kg | |||
牛奶屠宰加工耗能系数 | 1.12 | MJ/kg | |||
禽蛋屠宰加工耗能系数 | 8.16 | MJ/kg | |||
e | 一度电热值 | 3.60 | MJ | - | |
- | CO2当量转化为标准碳系数 | 0.272 8 | - | IPCC | |
CH4全球升温潜能值 | 21 | - | 参考文献[16] | ||
N2O全球升温潜能值 | 310 | - |
Table 3
Emissions of the standard C of animal husbandry by lifecycle assessment in China from 2000 to 2014 (万t,%)"
年份 | TCTOTAL | TCCZ | TCCY | TCSW | TCCD | TCSC | TCSG | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
总量 | 总量 | 占比 | 总量 | 占比 | 总量 | 占比 | 总量 | 占比 | 总量 | 占比 | 总量 | 占比 | |
2000 | 12 669.899 | 2 070.656 | 16.343 | 68.095 | 0.537 | 5 020.833 | 39.628 | 4 856.477 | 38.331 | 650.673 | 5.136 | 3.165 | 0.025 |
2001 | 12 557.472 | 1 927.219 | 15.347 | 65.567 | 0.522 | 5 037.106 | 40.112 | 4 946.037 | 39.387 | 578.240 | 4.605 | 3.303 | 0.026 |
2002 | 13 036.907 | 2 028.690 | 15.561 | 67.220 | 0.516 | 5 178.951 | 39.725 | 5 098.799 | 39.110 | 659.767 | 5.061 | 3.481 | 0.027 |
2003 | 14 360.155 | 2 919.641 | 20.332 | 91.833 | 0.639 | 5 383.257 | 37.487 | 5 322.688 | 37.066 | 639.020 | 4.450 | 3.716 | 0.026 |
2004 | 13 858.911 | 2 240.699 | 16.168 | 72.471 | 0.523 | 5 456.900 | 39.375 | 5 421.587 | 39.120 | 663.320 | 4.786 | 3.935 | 0.028 |
2005 | 14 696.131 | 2 374.259 | 16.156 | 76.209 | 0.519 | 5 723.719 | 38.947 | 5 777.379 | 39.312 | 740.349 | 5.038 | 4.217 | 0.029 |
2006 | 13 986.199 | 2 162.721 | 15.463 | 71.691 | 0.513 | 5 421.687 | 38.765 | 5 571.273 | 39.834 | 755.064 | 5.399 | 3.764 | 0.027 |
2007 | 12 163.720 | 2 332.767 | 19.178 | 74.898 | 0.616 | 4 385.787 | 36.056 | 4 715.442 | 38.766 | 651.030 | 5.352 | 3.796 | 0.031 |
2008 | 12 333.428 | 2 424.814 | 19.661 | 77.424 | 0.628 | 4 334.151 | 35.141 | 4 852.761 | 39.346 | 640.269 | 5.191 | 4.009 | 0.033 |
2009 | 12 830.583 | 2 472.250 | 19.268 | 78.733 | 0.614 | 4 509.470 | 35.146 | 5 113.900 | 39.857 | 652.098 | 5.082 | 4.133 | 0.032 |
2010 | 12 751.666 | 2 474.926 | 19.409 | 78.533 | 0.616 | 4 426.104 | 34.710 | 5 105.112 | 40.035 | 662.765 | 5.197 | 4.226 | 0.033 |
2011 | 12 632.564 | 2 483.655 | 19.661 | 77.845 | 0.616 | 4 352.435 | 34.454 | 5 067.549 | 40.115 | 646.816 | 5.120 | 4.264 | 0.034 |
2012 | 12 867.990 | 2 525.515 | 19.626 | 79.003 | 0.614 | 4 367.622 | 33.942 | 5 218.651 | 40.555 | 672.786 | 5.228 | 4.413 | 0.034 |
2013 | 12 992.218 | 2 496.480 | 19.215 | 78.206 | 0.602 | 4 390.716 | 33.795 | 5 285.595 | 40.683 | 736.771 | 5.671 | 4.451 | 0.034 |
2014 | 13 189.955 | 2 462.028 | 18.666 | 77.473 | 0.587 | 4 495.573 | 34.083 | 5 407.081 | 40.994 | 743.260 | 5.635 | 4.540 | 0.034 |
年均增长/% | 0.288 | 1.244 | 0.926 | -0.786 | 0.77 | 0.955 | 2.611 |
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