中国工业地价与产业结构变迁互动效应研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.04.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地既是产业发展的基础载体又是空间约束,其各种功能支撑着产业结构的不断演进,而产业结构变迁又型塑了土地要素的市场需求。因此,工业地价变动与产业结构变迁联系密切,对二者关系的研究对推动土地市场化改革和产业结构转型升级有积极的意义。本文利用2007-2013年中国的工业用地出让数据,通过建立工业地价与产业结构变迁的PVAR模型,分析了中国东、中、西部三个不同地区的产业结构变迁与工业地价变动之间的互动效应。实证分析结果表明,工业地价与产业结构变迁之间能够同向协调、互相促进,但与此同时却也存在较大的地区性差异：①在东部地区,由于市场化水平较高,工业地价上涨与产业结构升级、产业结构优化的方向具有同一性;②在中部地区,工业地价上涨与产业结构升级之间形成了同向变动的良性互动,但是过高的工业地价并不利于地区产业结构优化;③在西部地区,工业地价变动与产业结构变迁的互动效应较弱,而且呈现出地价上涨不利于结构升级和结构优化的趋势。工业地价与产业结构变迁互动效应的地区性差异,来源于地区之间在经济发展水平与土地市场化进程方面存在的显著差异。因此针对实证结果,本研究提出以下政策建议：东部地区,应继续深化土地市场化改革以促进产业结构变迁;中部地区,应协调土地市场化与产业结构变迁的关系,适度对高地价进行调控;西部地区,则需要大力推进土地市场化改革然后再考虑对地价的调控。

关键词: 工业地价, 产业结构, 结构升级, 结构优化, 中国

Abstract:

Land resources are the basic carrier and the spatial constraint of industrial development, whereby its various functions support the continuous evolution of industrial structure. And the role of land played supports the change of the industrial structure, in turn, the industrial structure change also shape the demand of land factor. The industrial land price change is closely related to the industrial structure change. Therefore, the research on the interactive effect between the industrial land price change and industrial structure change has a positive consequence to promote the reform of land market and the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. Based on the Chinese industrial land transaction database over the period 2007-2013, this paper constructs a PVAR model of linking industrial land price and the industrial structure change, and empirical analyzes the interactive effect between the change of industrial land price and industrial structure change and its regional heterogeneity. The results show that industrial land price change and industrial structure change could coordinates with each other but this relationship differs across regions. Specifically, in Eastern China, as the highly level of urban land marketization, the rising of industrial land price effective contributes to the industrial structure upgrading and optimization. In central China, an coordinated relationship between industrial land price and industrial upgrading has already exist, however, it's worth noting that high level of industrial land price is harmful to the industrial optimization in Central China. In western China, industrial land price increases are not only not conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure,but also not conducive to the optimization of industrial structure, but this interactive effect is not significant. The regional differences of the interactive effects between industrial land price change and industrial structure change are due to the significant differences in the level of economic development and land marketization in different regions. Evidence from this study suggests that the Eastern China should further advance the industrial land marketization to accommodate the regional industrial change; the central China should pay more attention to the coordination of industrial land marketization and industrial structure change and keep a relatively low level of land price; while the Western China should give the priority to the industrial marketization and then consider the regulation of land price level.

Key words: industrial land price, industrial structure, structure upgrading, structure optimization, China

黄金升, 陈利根, 张耀宇, 赵爱栋. 中国工业地价与产业结构变迁互动效应研究[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(4): 585-596.

Jinsheng HUANG, Ligen CHEN, Yaoyu ZHANG, Aidong ZHAO. The relationship between industrial land price and industrial structure change[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(4): 585-596.

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		东部			中部			西部
		p	s	tl	p	s	tl	p	s	tl
水平值	LLC	-42.90***	-6.36***	-55.04***	-27.43***	-28.90***	-42.22***	-23.13***	-26.52***	-20.21***
水平值	IPS	-3.75***	8.08	5.09	-6.12***	-2.94***	1.34	-3.34***	-0.73	0.05
差分	LLC	-130.00***	-120.00***	-23.29***	-35.70***	-160.00***	-65.60***	-36.18***	-27.79***	-12.59***
差分	IPS	-8.64***	-6.77***	-1.51*	-7.75***	-2.36***	-2.26**	-6.84**	-1.59**	-1.87**

统计量	东部地区		中部地区		西部地区
统计量	dp与ds	dp与dtl	dp与ds	dp与dtl	dp与ds	dp与dtl
Gt	-3.28***	-3.46***	-4.09***	-3.99***	-3.15***	-3.76***
Ga	-4.62**	-4.21	-5.17***	-4.01	-4.54*	-4.68**
Pt	-30.28***	-32.65***	-40.53***	-43.89***	-34.17***	-38.85***
Pa	-5.23***	-4.61***	-7.03***	-5.87***	-6.11***	-6.10***

滞后阶数		东部			中部			西部
滞后阶数		AIC	BIC	HQIC	AIC	BIC	HQIC	AIC	BIC	HQIC
p与s	1	-2.33	-0.31	-1.53	-1.56	0.47*	-0.76*	-0.52	1.41*	0.25
	2	-2.87*	-0.32*	-1.84*	-1.72	0.85	-0.69	-0.96*	1.47	0.02*
	3	-2.53	-0.94	-1.13	-1.77*	1.71	-0.36	-0.96	2.34	0.38
	4	-0.87	4.70	1.39	0.01	5.62	2.28	1.36	6.58	3.45
p与tl	1	-3.60*	-1.58*	-2.80*	-0.68*	1.35*	0.12*	-0.68	1.24*	0.09*
	2	-3.42	-0.87	-2.40	-25	2.31	0.77	-0.75*	1.68	0.23
	3	-2.62	0.85	-1.22	0.79	4.27	2.20	-0.24	3.06	1.10
	4	-0.47	-5.53	2.21	3.53	9.13	5.79	1.16	6.38	3.25

原假设	东部	中部	西部
p不是s的Granger原因	0.85	1.77	1.17
s不是p的Granger原因	13.40***	29.13***	3.28*
p不是tl的Granger原因	4.51**	3.05*	0.66
tl不是p的Granger原因	0.44	1.09	1.28

时期		东部地区		中部地区		西部地区		时期		东部地区		中部地区		西部地区
时期		p	s	p		s	p	s		p	tl	p	tl	p	tl
1	p	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1	p	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000
1	s	0.001	0.999	0.007	0.993	0.003	0.997	1	tl	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000
2	p	0.999	0.001	0.994	0.006	0.997	0.003	2	p	0.986	0.014	0.999	0.001	0.997	0.003
2	s	0.037	0.963	0.006	0.994	0.013	0.987	2	tl	0.001	0.999	0.000	1.000	0.003	0.997
3	p	0.998	0.002	0.993	0.007	0.997	0.003	3	p	0.986	0.014	0.999	0.001	0.997	0.003
3	s	0.039	0.961	0.015	0.985	0.013	0.987	3	tl	0.001	0.999	0.000	1.000	0.003	0.997
4	p	0.998	0.002	0.993	0.007	0.997	0.003	4	p	0.986	0.014	0.999	0.001	0.997	0.003
4	s	0.040	0.960	0.034	0.966	0.013	0.987	4	tl	0.001	0.999	0.000	1.000	0.003	0.997
5	p	0.998	0.002	0.993	0.007	0.997	0.003	5	p	0.986	0.014	0.999	0.001	0.997	0.003
5	s	0.040	0.960	0.034	0.966	0.013	0.987	5	tl	0.001	0.999	0.000	1.000	0.003	0.997
6	p	0.998	0.002	0.993	0.007	0.997	0.003	6	p	0.986	0.014	0.999	0.001	0.997	0.003
6	s	0.040	0.960	0.034	0.966	0.013	0.987	6	tl	0.001	0.999	0.000	1.000	0.003	0.997