资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (12): 2326-2337.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.12.12

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金砖国家对外贸易隐含碳的测算与比较——基于投入产出模型和结构分解的实证分析

江洪()   

  1. 辽宁工程技术大学工商管理学院,葫芦岛 125105
  • 收稿日期:2016-07-20 修回日期:2016-09-22 出版日期:2016-12-20 发布日期:2016-12-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:江洪,男,江苏沭阳人,博士,讲师,研究方向为能源经济、低碳经济。jianghong821213@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    辽宁省社科规划基金项目(L15CGL011);辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目(LJYR005);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(12YJC630071)

Implied carbon in trade between BRIC countries based on input-output modeling and structural decomposition

JIANG Hong()   

  1. School of Business Administration,Liaoning Technical University,Huludao 125105,China
  • Received:2016-07-20 Revised:2016-09-22 Online:2016-12-20 Published:2016-12-20

摘要:

为了探索金砖国家在不同双边贸易中是否存在碳减排的国际贸易途径,采用金砖四国1995年、2000年、2005年和2011年投入产出表,将经济分为11个部门,构建投入产出模型,测算了金砖国家对外贸易隐含碳,并进行行业结构分解分析。研究结果表明:俄罗斯从1995-2011年,一直处于进出口贸易隐含碳净顺差国,而且样本期内净顺差规模逐年扩大,已经沦为“污染天堂”;中国进出口贸易隐含碳绝对数逐年增加,行业贸易隐含碳特征有明显差异,金属制品、橡胶、纺织等行业处于贸易顺差且顺差规模不断扩大,而采矿业长期处于逆差,从2000年以后成为进出口贸易隐含碳净顺差国,正逐渐沦为“污染天堂”;巴西贸易隐含碳处于基本平衡状态,不属于“污染天堂”;一直处于进出口贸易隐含碳净逆差,且逆差规模逐年扩大,说明印度不仅没有沦为“污染天堂”,相反,正不断从对外贸易中获益。金砖四国隐含碳行业结构分解结果基本趋同,一直处于进出口贸易隐含碳净逆差,且逆差规模逐年扩大,说明印度规模效应是隐含碳排放的主要驱动因素;结构效应对隐含碳排放有促进作用,但不显著;技术效应对隐含碳排放有抑制作用。

关键词: 金砖国家, 对外贸易, 隐含碳, 投入产出, 结构分解, “, 污染天堂”

Abstract:

Based on an input-output table for BRIC countries in 1995,2000,2005 and 2011 we explored embodied carbon emissions in trade between BRIC countries by dividing the economy into 11 departments. The structural decomposition method was then used to analyze embodied carbon in trade according to different industries. The results show that Russia has become a pollution heaven because it has been in the import and export trade with implied carbon net surplus countries,and the scale of the net surplus has been expanding. The absolute amount of implicit carbon in China's import and export trade has increased year by year,but the characteristics of implicit carbon are different: metal products,rubber,textile and other industries are in a trade surplus and the size of the trade surplus continues to expand,while the mining industry is in a long-term deficit. China has become a net surplus of import and export trade since 2000,and is gradually becoming a pollution heaven. Similar to China and Russia,the absolute amount of implicit carbon in Brazil increases year by year,but the growth is small. Trade implied carbon in Brazil is in a basic equilibrium state and Brazil does not belong to the pollution heaven class of countries. During the sample period,India was a net deficit country of import and export trade,and the scale of the net deficit expanded. India has been in the import and export trade implicit carbon net deficit, and the size of the deficit has expanded year by year. It shows that India is not a pollution heaven,on the contrary it is constantly benefiting from foreign trade. The results of the decomposition of embodied carbon in BRIC countries are similar. The scale effect is the main driving factor of embodied carbon emissions. The structural effect promotes embodied carbon emissions,but it is not significant. The technical effect restrains embodied carbon emissions.

Key words: BRICS, foreign trade, embodied carbon, input-output, structure decomposition, Pollution Heaven