资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (12): 2316-2325.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.12.11

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基于IPAT模型和情景分析法的山西省碳排放峰值年预测

朱宇恩1(), 李丽芬1, 贺思思1, 李华1, 王云2,3()   

  1. 1. 山西大学环境与资源学院,太原030006
    2. 华中科技大学,武汉430074
    3. 山西省社会科学院能源经济研究所,太原030006
  • 收稿日期:2016-07-08 修回日期:2016-09-21 出版日期:2016-12-20 发布日期:2016-12-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:朱宇恩,男,山西平遥人,博士,讲师,主要研究方向为温室气体排放核算与控制。zhuyuen@sxu.edu.cn.

  • 基金资助:
    山西经济社会发展重大研究课题(ZD201409);山西省“十三五”规划前期研究重大课题(2014024);2015 年度山西大学大学生创新创业训练计划资助项目(201510108005)

Peak year prediction of Shanxi Province’s carbon emissions based on IPAT modeling and scenario analysis

ZHU Yuen1(), LI Lifen1, HE Sisi1, LI Hua1, WANG Yun2,3()   

  1. 1. School of Environment and Resources,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,China
    2. Huazhong University of Science & Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;
    3. Institute for Energy Economics,Shanxi Academy of Social Science,Taiyuan 030006,China
  • Received:2016-07-08 Revised:2016-09-21 Online:2016-12-20 Published:2016-12-20

摘要:

山西省是中国重要的能源重化工基地,温室气体排放量位居中国前列,减排压力巨大,合理预测碳排放峰值年,有助于明晰减排目标,为有效设计减排路径提供帮助。本文采用IPAT模型,对山西省中长期能源碳排放量以及峰值年进行了预测。结果显示,在山西省当前能源与结构状态下,相较于可再生能源年替代率,年GDP增速和年节能率对山西省中长期碳排放影响更为显著,是2030年达到碳排放峰值年的关键控制指标。在GDP低速和中速发展情景下,山西省碳排放量均可在2030年前达到峰值,碳排放最大峰值量分别为6.6亿t和7.1亿t;在GDP高速发展情景下,预测结果显示,2015-2040年碳排放量一直增长,无法达到峰值年,上调年节能率或可再生能源年替代率0.60%及以上,方可确保山西省2030年达到碳排放峰值年。

关键词: IPAT模型, 情景分析法, 能源消费, 碳排放峰值年, 山西省

Abstract:

Global warming and greenhouse gas emissions have become key factors restricting economic development in China. Shanxi Province is top-ranked nationwide in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and faces huge challenges regarding emissions reduction as an important national energy and heavy chemical industry base in China. A reasonable forecast of the peak year of carbon emissions will help clarify the accessibility of carbon-reduction targets and the effectiveness of carbon reduction programs. Here,taking Shanxi’s annual GDP growth rate,energy saving rate and the replacement rate of renewable energy as parameters,we use different scenarios and combine IPAT modeling to predict medium and long-term energy carbon emissions and peak years of carbon emissions. Results show that compared with the annual replacement rate of renewable energy,the annual GDP growth rate and energy saving rate have more influence on the medium and long-term carbon emissions of Shanxi under current energy and structural conditions. The annual GDP growth rate and energy saving rate are critical for whether carbon emissions peak in 2030. Given the small to medium annual GDP growth rate,Shanxi’s carbon emissions peak before 2030,coupled with energy conservation and energy structural adjustment. However,under the high annual GDP growth rate scenario,carbon emissions in 2015-2040 keep rising,and will not peak assuming constant current annual energy savings and the replacement rate for renewable energy. Raising the annual energy saving rate and replacement rate for renewable energy by 0.6 percentage points would ensure that carbon emissions peak by 2030.

Key words: IPAT model, scenario analysis, energy consumption, carbon emissions peak years, Shanxi Province